Auteur: Lenny Stoeldraijer, Coen van Duin, Han Nicolaas en Corina Huisman Publicatiedatum: 16-12-2022 00:00

Kernprognose 2022–2070: Door oorlog meer migranten naar Nederland

4. Ontwikkeling van de bevolking

4.1 Bevolkingsgroei

Het lagere aantal geboorten en het hogere aantal overledenen leiden voor 2022 tot een lagere natuurlijke aanwas (geboorte minus sterfte) dan in de Kernprognose 2021–2070 was verwacht. Ook in de volgende jaren ligt de verwachte natuurlijke aanwas iets lager. Na 2030 wordt juist een iets grotere aanwas voorzien dan in de vorige prognose, omdat de sterker dan verwachte toename van de immigratie op termijn ook tot extra geboorten leidt. Het omslagpunt van natuurlijke groei naar natuurlijke krimp vindt naar verwachting plaats in 2041, twee jaar later dan in de Kernprognose 2021–2070.

4.1.1 Natuurlijke aanwas
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	67,015
1981	63,054
1982	54,807
1983	52,485
1984	54,624
1985	55,432
1986	59,206
1987	64,468
1988	62,484
1989	60,074
1990	69,141
1991	68,707
1992	66,913
1993	57,953
1994	62,14
1995	54,838
1996	51,96
1997	56,66
1998	61,926
1999	59,958
2000	66,092
2001	62,226
2002	59,728
2003	58,361
2004	57,454
2005	51,508
2006	49,685
2007	48,314
2008	49,498
2009	50,68
2010	48,339
2011	44,319
2012	35,146
2013	30,096
2014	35,958
2015	23,376
2016	23,523
2017	19,622
2018	15,162
2019	17,795
2020	0,003
2021	8,469	11,74
2022	-1,504	20,024	-1,504	-18,735 – 13,871	-9,679 – 6,579
2023		25,66	10,317	-11,704 – 31,013	-0,658 – 20,321
2024		27,26	19,646	-6,77 – 44,691	6,35 – 31,487
2025		27,996	25,128	-5,661 – 52,658	9,984 – 38,676
2026		29,467	27,078	-7,405 – 56,903	10,277 – 42,082
2027		28,941	27,667	-10,121 – 60,208	9,256 – 44,349
2028		28,95	28,061	-12,453 – 63,837	8,466 – 46,083
2029		28,496	28,593	-13,996 – 67,979	7,354 – 47,616
2030		27,412	28,625	-15,951 – 70,433	5,942 – 48,494
2031		25,953	28,01	-19,1 – 72,343	3,791 – 49,2
2032		23,895	27,021	-21,948 – 74,095	2,11 – 49,901
2033		21,712	25,719	-25,373 – 75,057	-0,199 – 49,745
2034		19,022	23,934	-29,272 – 74,999	-3,346 – 48,962
2035		15,952	21,481	-33,519 – 73,945	-7,171 – 46,696
2036		12,514	18,247	-39,288 – 72,911	-11,75 – 43,791
2037		8,759	14,569	-44,723 – 71,216	-16,528 – 40,742
2038		5,216	10,854	-52,691 – 68,603	-21,524 – 37,575
2039		2,039	7,284	-58,111 – 64,921	-25,638 – 34,958
2040		-0,996	3,821	-63,445 – 62,117	-29,569 – 31,642
2041		-3,849	0,412	-66,4 – 58,782	-32,469 – 29,326
2042		-6,454	-2,753	-68,085 – 57,075	-34,985 – 26,985
2043		-8,759	-5,577	-69,5 – 54,837	-37,073 – 25,243
2044		-10,755	-8,061	-70,606 – 54,274	-39,453 – 23,246
2045		-12,57	-10,307	-74,71 – 52,171	-42,264 – 21,461
2046		-14,089	-12,199	-78,153 – 50,474	-44,559 – 19,574
2047		-15,379	-13,857	-80,773 – 48,914	-46,851 – 18,783
2048		-16,446	-15,301	-82,537 – 48,458	-48,933 – 17,418
2049		-17,255	-16,511	-84,074 – 48,564	-50,756 – 16,335
2050		-17,762	-17,436	-85,541 – 48,583	-52,388 – 14,853
2051		-17,914	-18,007	-85,879 – 50,245	-52,641 – 14,519
2052		-17,653	-18,155	-86,637 – 51,057	-52,979 – 14,886
2053		-16,95	-17,826	-87,314 – 53,102	-53,371 – 15,325
2054		-15,795	-16,985	-87,79 – 56,243	-53,256 – 16,64
2055		-14,196	-15,634	-86,552 – 61,217	-52,395 – 18,113
2056		-12,195	-13,796	-85,584 – 64,939	-50,723 – 20,425
2057		-9,842	-11,52	-84,673 – 68,66	-49,316 – 23,596
2058		-7,206	-8,866	-84,047 – 72,94	-48,364 – 28,365
2059		-4,356	-5,897	-83,006 – 79,323	-47,304 – 32,64
2060		-1,389	-2,725	-82,313 – 85,26	-46,192 – 36,629
2061		1,623	0,559	-81,871 – 90,298	-43,629 – 39,997
2062		4,605	3,845	-80,384 – 95,401	-41,672 – 44,521
2063		7,487	7,051	-78,016 – 99,37	-39,254 – 48,782
2064		10,207	10,092	-74,839 – 103,144	-37,145 – 52,765
2065		12,688	12,863	-72,336 – 107,753	-33,771 – 56,603
2066		14,874	15,301	-71,266 – 112,982	-31,833 – 59,969
2067		16,739	17,372	-72,028 – 118,515	-30,766 – 63,106
2068		18,252	19,035	-73,179 – 123,229	-30,61 – 65,465
2069		19,411	20,284	-73,977 – 126,66	-30,656 – 67,099
2070		20,165	21,067	-73,507 – 129,449	-30,396 – 68,108

4.1.1 Natuurlijke aanwas
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	67,015
1981	63,054
1982	54,807
1983	52,485
1984	54,624
1985	55,432
1986	59,206
1987	64,468
1988	62,484
1989	60,074
1990	69,141
1991	68,707
1992	66,913
1993	57,953
1994	62,14
1995	54,838
1996	51,96
1997	56,66
1998	61,926
1999	59,958
2000	66,092
2001	62,226
2002	59,728
2003	58,361
2004	57,454
2005	51,508
2006	49,685
2007	48,314
2008	49,498
2009	50,68
2010	48,339
2011	44,319
2012	35,146
2013	30,096
2014	35,958
2015	23,376
2016	23,523
2017	19,622
2018	15,162
2019	17,795
2020	0,003
2021	8,469	11,74
2022	-1,504	20,024	-1,504	-18,735 – 13,871	-9,679 – 6,579
2023		25,66	10,317	-11,704 – 31,013	-0,658 – 20,321
2024		27,26	19,646	-6,77 – 44,691	6,35 – 31,487
2025		27,996	25,128	-5,661 – 52,658	9,984 – 38,676
2026		29,467	27,078	-7,405 – 56,903	10,277 – 42,082
2027		28,941	27,667	-10,121 – 60,208	9,256 – 44,349
2028		28,95	28,061	-12,453 – 63,837	8,466 – 46,083
2029		28,496	28,593	-13,996 – 67,979	7,354 – 47,616
2030		27,412	28,625	-15,951 – 70,433	5,942 – 48,494
2031		25,953	28,01	-19,1 – 72,343	3,791 – 49,2
2032		23,895	27,021	-21,948 – 74,095	2,11 – 49,901
2033		21,712	25,719	-25,373 – 75,057	-0,199 – 49,745
2034		19,022	23,934	-29,272 – 74,999	-3,346 – 48,962
2035		15,952	21,481	-33,519 – 73,945	-7,171 – 46,696
2036		12,514	18,247	-39,288 – 72,911	-11,75 – 43,791
2037		8,759	14,569	-44,723 – 71,216	-16,528 – 40,742
2038		5,216	10,854	-52,691 – 68,603	-21,524 – 37,575
2039		2,039	7,284	-58,111 – 64,921	-25,638 – 34,958
2040		-0,996	3,821	-63,445 – 62,117	-29,569 – 31,642
2041		-3,849	0,412	-66,4 – 58,782	-32,469 – 29,326
2042		-6,454	-2,753	-68,085 – 57,075	-34,985 – 26,985
2043		-8,759	-5,577	-69,5 – 54,837	-37,073 – 25,243
2044		-10,755	-8,061	-70,606 – 54,274	-39,453 – 23,246
2045		-12,57	-10,307	-74,71 – 52,171	-42,264 – 21,461
2046		-14,089	-12,199	-78,153 – 50,474	-44,559 – 19,574
2047		-15,379	-13,857	-80,773 – 48,914	-46,851 – 18,783
2048		-16,446	-15,301	-82,537 – 48,458	-48,933 – 17,418
2049		-17,255	-16,511	-84,074 – 48,564	-50,756 – 16,335
2050		-17,762	-17,436	-85,541 – 48,583	-52,388 – 14,853
2051		-17,914	-18,007	-85,879 – 50,245	-52,641 – 14,519
2052		-17,653	-18,155	-86,637 – 51,057	-52,979 – 14,886
2053		-16,95	-17,826	-87,314 – 53,102	-53,371 – 15,325
2054		-15,795	-16,985	-87,79 – 56,243	-53,256 – 16,64
2055		-14,196	-15,634	-86,552 – 61,217	-52,395 – 18,113
2056		-12,195	-13,796	-85,584 – 64,939	-50,723 – 20,425
2057		-9,842	-11,52	-84,673 – 68,66	-49,316 – 23,596
2058		-7,206	-8,866	-84,047 – 72,94	-48,364 – 28,365
2059		-4,356	-5,897	-83,006 – 79,323	-47,304 – 32,64
2060		-1,389	-2,725	-82,313 – 85,26	-46,192 – 36,629
2061		1,623	0,559	-81,871 – 90,298	-43,629 – 39,997
2062		4,605	3,845	-80,384 – 95,401	-41,672 – 44,521
2063		7,487	7,051	-78,016 – 99,37	-39,254 – 48,782
2064		10,207	10,092	-74,839 – 103,144	-37,145 – 52,765
2065		12,688	12,863	-72,336 – 107,753	-33,771 – 56,603
2066		14,874	15,301	-71,266 – 112,982	-31,833 – 59,969
2067		16,739	17,372	-72,028 – 118,515	-30,766 – 63,106
2068		18,252	19,035	-73,179 – 123,229	-30,61 – 65,465
2069		19,411	20,284	-73,977 – 126,66	-30,656 – 67,099
2070		20,165	21,067	-73,507 – 129,449	-30,396 – 68,108

Het migratiesaldo, het aantal immigranten minus het aantal emigranten, bereikt het hoogste punt in 2022 met 228 duizend. Daarna wordt een daling voorzien. Het migratiesaldo volgens de Kernprognose 2022–2070 is tot en met 2025 hoger dan het migratiesaldo volgens de Kernprognose 2021–2070, daarna iets lager en na 2040 nagenoeg gelijk. Voor de lange termijn wordt uitgegaan van een migratiesaldo van gemiddeld 50 duizend per jaar. De verwachting is dus dat er meer immigranten naar Nederland komen dan er mensen vertrekken.

4.1.2 Migratiesaldo (inclusief administratieve correcties)
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	13,904
1996	16,804
1997	27,887
1998	43,118
1999	40,372
2000	53,873
2001	50,838
2002	24,332
2003	-0,317
2004	-16,216
2005	-27,428
2006	-31,32
2007	-5,757
2008	25,737
2009	34,481
2010	33,081
2011	29,768
2012	13,883
2013	19,103
2014	35,087
2015	55,106
2016	79,194
2017	80,665
2018	86,371
2019	108,035
2020	68,359
2021	107,198	106,5
2022	228,065	122,062	228,065	169,978 – 299,659	197,903 – 262,573
2023		106,573	171,372	104,046 – 246,432	138,394 – 208,328
2024		85,026	111,559	39,905 – 188,05	76,745 – 149,358
2025		79,547	85,481	13,201 – 161,038	50,908 – 123,182
2026		74,208	62,562	-9,617 – 137,624	27,421 – 99,911
2027		70,017	59,968	-13,019 – 134,834	24,435 – 97,345
2028		67,426	59,839	-13,952 – 135,617	23,71 – 98,384
2029		64,188	58,542	-16,301 – 134,451	21,948 – 97,579
2030		61,764	56,996	-17,227 – 134,178	19,792 – 96,552
2031		60,353	56,531	-16,686 – 134,452	19,406 – 96,502
2032		58,716	55,812	-17,438 – 135,324	18,296 – 96,849
2033		57,424	55,191	-18,064 – 135,441	17,684 – 96,152
2034		56,318	54,586	-18,859 – 137,503	16,443 – 96,514
2035		55,898	54,549	-19,586 – 138,742	15,879 – 97,571
2036		55,394	54,338	-22,458 – 139,61	15,0 – 98,503
2037		54,834	54,003	-23,519 – 139,269	13,984 – 98,583
2038		54,353	53,695	-25,129 – 138,443	13,25 – 98,326
2039		53,944	53,419	-26,095 – 137,511	12,732 – 97,565
2040		53,546	53,122	-27,207 – 136,269	11,967 – 96,477
2041		53,181	52,833	-28,483 – 137,274	10,919 – 95,926
2042		52,978	52,697	-29,747 – 138,455	10,289 – 95,613
2043		52,749	52,525	-29,564 – 138,914	9,97 – 95,424
2044		52,488	52,308	-30,202 – 139,299	9,395 – 95,672
2045		52,232	52,088	-30,685 – 140,339	8,782 – 96,116
2046		51,988	51,873	-30,271 – 138,56	8,944 – 95,783
2047		51,749	51,657	-30,201 – 137,066	8,873 – 95,337
2048		51,527	51,453	-30,549 – 136,538	8,212 – 95,005
2049		51,312	51,253	-30,388 – 134,715	7,846 – 94,437
2050		51,16	51,113	-30,125 – 133,591	7,513 – 93,852
2051		50,91	50,873	-29,996 – 133,609	7,713 – 93,077
2052		50,664	50,644	-30,12 – 133,926	6,925 – 92,342
2053		50,488	50,479	-30,12 – 134,572	6,963 – 92,196
2054		50,361	50,356	-30,287 – 136,104	6,999 – 92,49
2055		50,219	50,215	-30,77 – 136,262	7,116 – 93,044
2056		50,111	50,108	-31,494 – 137,437	6,316 – 93,038
2057		50,033	50,03	-32,589 – 138,227	6,494 – 93,335
2058		49,937	49,934	-33,808 – 138,226	6,196 – 92,935
2059		49,84	49,837	-33,773 – 137,125	6,04 – 92,291
2060		49,823	49,82	-33,716 – 137,255	6,014 – 91,556
2061		49,775	49,772	-33,667 – 134,462	6,183 – 91,638
2062		49,738	49,736	-33,375 – 133,294	6,045 – 91,476
2063		49,681	49,679	-33,376 – 132,704	6,177 – 91,52
2064		49,657	49,655	-33,591 – 134,137	6,645 – 91,115
2065		49,62	49,618	-33,46 – 133,839	6,645 – 90,879
2066		49,615	49,613	-31,715 – 135,3	6,916 – 91,222
2067		49,597	49,595	-31,254 – 136,315	7,569 – 91,638
2068		49,582	49,58	-30,405 – 136,874	7,29 – 91,526
2069		49,588	49,586	-30,193 – 136,449	7,014 – 91,854
2070		49,353	49,403	-32,121 – 137,649	6,474 – 91,287

4.1.2 Migratiesaldo (inclusief administratieve correcties)
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	13,904
1996	16,804
1997	27,887
1998	43,118
1999	40,372
2000	53,873
2001	50,838
2002	24,332
2003	-0,317
2004	-16,216
2005	-27,428
2006	-31,32
2007	-5,757
2008	25,737
2009	34,481
2010	33,081
2011	29,768
2012	13,883
2013	19,103
2014	35,087
2015	55,106
2016	79,194
2017	80,665
2018	86,371
2019	108,035
2020	68,359
2021	107,198	106,5
2022	228,065	122,062	228,065	169,978 – 299,659	197,903 – 262,573
2023		106,573	171,372	104,046 – 246,432	138,394 – 208,328
2024		85,026	111,559	39,905 – 188,05	76,745 – 149,358
2025		79,547	85,481	13,201 – 161,038	50,908 – 123,182
2026		74,208	62,562	-9,617 – 137,624	27,421 – 99,911
2027		70,017	59,968	-13,019 – 134,834	24,435 – 97,345
2028		67,426	59,839	-13,952 – 135,617	23,71 – 98,384
2029		64,188	58,542	-16,301 – 134,451	21,948 – 97,579
2030		61,764	56,996	-17,227 – 134,178	19,792 – 96,552
2031		60,353	56,531	-16,686 – 134,452	19,406 – 96,502
2032		58,716	55,812	-17,438 – 135,324	18,296 – 96,849
2033		57,424	55,191	-18,064 – 135,441	17,684 – 96,152
2034		56,318	54,586	-18,859 – 137,503	16,443 – 96,514
2035		55,898	54,549	-19,586 – 138,742	15,879 – 97,571
2036		55,394	54,338	-22,458 – 139,61	15,0 – 98,503
2037		54,834	54,003	-23,519 – 139,269	13,984 – 98,583
2038		54,353	53,695	-25,129 – 138,443	13,25 – 98,326
2039		53,944	53,419	-26,095 – 137,511	12,732 – 97,565
2040		53,546	53,122	-27,207 – 136,269	11,967 – 96,477
2041		53,181	52,833	-28,483 – 137,274	10,919 – 95,926
2042		52,978	52,697	-29,747 – 138,455	10,289 – 95,613
2043		52,749	52,525	-29,564 – 138,914	9,97 – 95,424
2044		52,488	52,308	-30,202 – 139,299	9,395 – 95,672
2045		52,232	52,088	-30,685 – 140,339	8,782 – 96,116
2046		51,988	51,873	-30,271 – 138,56	8,944 – 95,783
2047		51,749	51,657	-30,201 – 137,066	8,873 – 95,337
2048		51,527	51,453	-30,549 – 136,538	8,212 – 95,005
2049		51,312	51,253	-30,388 – 134,715	7,846 – 94,437
2050		51,16	51,113	-30,125 – 133,591	7,513 – 93,852
2051		50,91	50,873	-29,996 – 133,609	7,713 – 93,077
2052		50,664	50,644	-30,12 – 133,926	6,925 – 92,342
2053		50,488	50,479	-30,12 – 134,572	6,963 – 92,196
2054		50,361	50,356	-30,287 – 136,104	6,999 – 92,49
2055		50,219	50,215	-30,77 – 136,262	7,116 – 93,044
2056		50,111	50,108	-31,494 – 137,437	6,316 – 93,038
2057		50,033	50,03	-32,589 – 138,227	6,494 – 93,335
2058		49,937	49,934	-33,808 – 138,226	6,196 – 92,935
2059		49,84	49,837	-33,773 – 137,125	6,04 – 92,291
2060		49,823	49,82	-33,716 – 137,255	6,014 – 91,556
2061		49,775	49,772	-33,667 – 134,462	6,183 – 91,638
2062		49,738	49,736	-33,375 – 133,294	6,045 – 91,476
2063		49,681	49,679	-33,376 – 132,704	6,177 – 91,52
2064		49,657	49,655	-33,591 – 134,137	6,645 – 91,115
2065		49,62	49,618	-33,46 – 133,839	6,645 – 90,879
2066		49,615	49,613	-31,715 – 135,3	6,916 – 91,222
2067		49,597	49,595	-31,254 – 136,315	7,569 – 91,638
2068		49,582	49,58	-30,405 – 136,874	7,29 – 91,526
2069		49,588	49,586	-30,193 – 136,449	7,014 – 91,854
2070		49,353	49,403	-32,121 – 137,649	6,474 – 91,287

De som van de natuurlijke aanwas en het migratiesaldo is gelijk aan de bevolkingsgroei. Voor 2022 wordt een bevolkingsgroei van 227 duizend voorzien, 84 duizend meer dan in de Kernprognose 2021–2070 werd verwacht. Rond 2050 is de bevolkingsgroei het geringst, 33 duizend.

4.1.3 Bevolkingsgroei
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	68,742
1996	68,764
1997	84,547
1998	105,044
1999	100,33
2000	119,965
2001	113,064
2002	84,06
2003	58,044
2004	41,238
2005	24,08
2006	18,365
2007	42,557
2008	75,235
2009	85,161
2010	81,42
2011	74,087
2012	49,029
2013	49,199
2014	71,045
2015	78,482
2016	102,717
2017	100,287
2018	101,533
2019	125,83
2020	68,362
2021	115,667	118,24
2022	226,561	142,086	226,561	201,949 – 251,657	211,946 – 237,237
2023		132,233	181,689	123,107 – 242,521	151,349 – 212,401
2024		112,286	131,205	55,109 – 212,571	92,064 – 172,74
2025		107,543	110,609	33,852 – 193,181	71,156 – 152,294
2026		103,675	89,64	10,498 – 174,744	48,798 – 132,475
2027		98,958	87,635	4,548 – 173,773	44,633 – 131,253
2028		96,376	87,9	1,141 – 177,6	42,159 – 132,662
2029		92,684	87,135	-2,885 – 181,207	39,546 – 133,741
2030		89,176	85,621	-5,449 – 183,016	37,589 – 133,434
2031		86,306	84,541	-7,988 – 185,105	35,209 – 133,234
2032		82,611	82,833	-11,022 – 184,276	33,701 – 132,631
2033		79,136	80,91	-15,002 – 186,435	30,936 – 131,638
2034		75,34	78,52	-18,721 – 185,289	27,756 – 130,634
2035		71,85	76,03	-25,117 – 185,213	23,93 – 128,703
2036		67,908	72,585	-31,17 – 183,727	18,544 – 126,603
2037		63,593	68,572	-39,237 – 181,927	12,675 – 124,335
2038		59,569	64,549	-45,102 – 178,665	7,063 – 121,064
2039		55,983	60,703	-50,725 – 172,834	3,298 – 116,681
2040		52,55	56,943	-54,155 – 168,854	-0,193 – 111,683
2041		49,332	53,245	-55,936 – 164,825	-4,664 – 107,905
2042		46,524	49,944	-59,755 – 163,333	-9,23 – 106,319
2043		43,99	46,948	-62,876 – 163,678	-12,853 – 104,208
2044		41,733	44,247	-66,886 – 161,892	-15,376 – 101,497
2045		39,662	41,781	-68,865 – 158,691	-18,272 – 99,0
2046		37,899	39,674	-72,622 – 156,77	-21,852 – 97,138
2047		36,37	37,8	-76,71 – 155,253	-25,098 – 95,946
2048		35,081	36,152	-79,498 – 153,909	-26,22 – 93,436
2049		34,057	34,742	-79,794 – 151,053	-27,022 – 92,105
2050		33,398	33,677	-78,911 – 149,659	-26,892 – 89,999
2051		32,996	32,866	-78,367 – 149,243	-28,08 – 89,902
2052		33,011	32,489	-79,209 – 150,786	-27,691 – 88,761
2053		33,538	32,653	-81,04 – 151,927	-28,289 – 88,997
2054		34,566	33,371	-82,735 – 154,453	-27,435 – 90,195
2055		36,023	34,581	-82,1 – 156,267	-27,025 – 93,72
2056		37,916	36,312	-81,331 – 160,884	-25,975 – 97,918
2057		40,191	38,51	-79,92 – 164,728	-25,545 – 100,064
2058		42,731	41,068	-78,971 – 169,347	-24,917 – 101,693
2059		45,484	43,94	-76,645 – 172,917	-23,213 – 103,814
2060		48,434	47,095	-75,014 – 175,288	-21,386 – 105,894
2061		51,398	50,331	-75,079 – 176,351	-18,884 – 109,428
2062		54,343	53,581	-75,084 – 179,172	-17,212 – 113,765
2063		57,168	56,73	-74,146 – 182,197	-15,058 – 117,338
2064		59,864	59,747	-72,165 – 186,804	-12,978 – 120,333
2065		62,308	62,481	-68,701 – 191,848	-10,434 – 122,78
2066		64,489	64,914	-65,069 – 197,326	-6,266 – 126,451
2067		66,336	66,967	-61,565 – 200,7	-3,243 – 128,895
2068		67,834	68,615	-59,778 – 202,364	-0,052 – 132,083
2069		68,999	69,87	-58,006 – 205,66	2,124 – 133,822
2070		69,518	70,47	-57,318 – 207,65	3,789 – 135,821

4.1.3 Bevolkingsgroei
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	68,742
1996	68,764
1997	84,547
1998	105,044
1999	100,33
2000	119,965
2001	113,064
2002	84,06
2003	58,044
2004	41,238
2005	24,08
2006	18,365
2007	42,557
2008	75,235
2009	85,161
2010	81,42
2011	74,087
2012	49,029
2013	49,199
2014	71,045
2015	78,482
2016	102,717
2017	100,287
2018	101,533
2019	125,83
2020	68,362
2021	115,667	118,24
2022	226,561	142,086	226,561	201,949 – 251,657	211,946 – 237,237
2023		132,233	181,689	123,107 – 242,521	151,349 – 212,401
2024		112,286	131,205	55,109 – 212,571	92,064 – 172,74
2025		107,543	110,609	33,852 – 193,181	71,156 – 152,294
2026		103,675	89,64	10,498 – 174,744	48,798 – 132,475
2027		98,958	87,635	4,548 – 173,773	44,633 – 131,253
2028		96,376	87,9	1,141 – 177,6	42,159 – 132,662
2029		92,684	87,135	-2,885 – 181,207	39,546 – 133,741
2030		89,176	85,621	-5,449 – 183,016	37,589 – 133,434
2031		86,306	84,541	-7,988 – 185,105	35,209 – 133,234
2032		82,611	82,833	-11,022 – 184,276	33,701 – 132,631
2033		79,136	80,91	-15,002 – 186,435	30,936 – 131,638
2034		75,34	78,52	-18,721 – 185,289	27,756 – 130,634
2035		71,85	76,03	-25,117 – 185,213	23,93 – 128,703
2036		67,908	72,585	-31,17 – 183,727	18,544 – 126,603
2037		63,593	68,572	-39,237 – 181,927	12,675 – 124,335
2038		59,569	64,549	-45,102 – 178,665	7,063 – 121,064
2039		55,983	60,703	-50,725 – 172,834	3,298 – 116,681
2040		52,55	56,943	-54,155 – 168,854	-0,193 – 111,683
2041		49,332	53,245	-55,936 – 164,825	-4,664 – 107,905
2042		46,524	49,944	-59,755 – 163,333	-9,23 – 106,319
2043		43,99	46,948	-62,876 – 163,678	-12,853 – 104,208
2044		41,733	44,247	-66,886 – 161,892	-15,376 – 101,497
2045		39,662	41,781	-68,865 – 158,691	-18,272 – 99,0
2046		37,899	39,674	-72,622 – 156,77	-21,852 – 97,138
2047		36,37	37,8	-76,71 – 155,253	-25,098 – 95,946
2048		35,081	36,152	-79,498 – 153,909	-26,22 – 93,436
2049		34,057	34,742	-79,794 – 151,053	-27,022 – 92,105
2050		33,398	33,677	-78,911 – 149,659	-26,892 – 89,999
2051		32,996	32,866	-78,367 – 149,243	-28,08 – 89,902
2052		33,011	32,489	-79,209 – 150,786	-27,691 – 88,761
2053		33,538	32,653	-81,04 – 151,927	-28,289 – 88,997
2054		34,566	33,371	-82,735 – 154,453	-27,435 – 90,195
2055		36,023	34,581	-82,1 – 156,267	-27,025 – 93,72
2056		37,916	36,312	-81,331 – 160,884	-25,975 – 97,918
2057		40,191	38,51	-79,92 – 164,728	-25,545 – 100,064
2058		42,731	41,068	-78,971 – 169,347	-24,917 – 101,693
2059		45,484	43,94	-76,645 – 172,917	-23,213 – 103,814
2060		48,434	47,095	-75,014 – 175,288	-21,386 – 105,894
2061		51,398	50,331	-75,079 – 176,351	-18,884 – 109,428
2062		54,343	53,581	-75,084 – 179,172	-17,212 – 113,765
2063		57,168	56,73	-74,146 – 182,197	-15,058 – 117,338
2064		59,864	59,747	-72,165 – 186,804	-12,978 – 120,333
2065		62,308	62,481	-68,701 – 191,848	-10,434 – 122,78
2066		64,489	64,914	-65,069 – 197,326	-6,266 – 126,451
2067		66,336	66,967	-61,565 – 200,7	-3,243 – 128,895
2068		67,834	68,615	-59,778 – 202,364	-0,052 – 132,083
2069		68,999	69,87	-58,006 – 205,66	2,124 – 133,822
2070		69,518	70,47	-57,318 – 207,65	3,789 – 135,821

4.2 Bevolking wordt ouder

In maart 2016 passeerde Nederland de grens van 17 miljoen inwoners. De grens van 18 miljoen inwoners wordt volgens de huidige inzichten in 2024 overschreden. Het aantal van 19 miljoen zal naar verwachting in 2034 worden gehaald en de 20 miljoen wordt bereikt in 2056.

De prognosecijfers zijn met onzekerheden omgeven. Zo kan het aantal migranten van jaar tot jaar sterk fluctueren. Ook is niet zeker of de stijging van de levensduur in de toekomst in hetzelfde tempo zal doorzetten en of Nederlanders een voorkeur voor gezinnen met twee kinderen blijven houden. Bovendien is nog onzeker of de coronapandemie ook op de lange termijn effecten heeft op de bevolkingsontwikkeling. De bevolking in 2070 ligt zeer waarschijnlijk tussen 19,0 miljoen en 22,3 miljoen inwoners.

De bijstellingen in de prognose betekenen dat Nederland in 2026 volgens de nieuwe berekeningen 153 duizend inwoners meer heeft dan eerder werd verwacht. Het verschil loopt af tot ongeveer 108 duizend rond 2032 om daarna weer iets op te lopen. De verschillen ten opzichte van de vorige prognose liggen ruim binnen de 67 procent prognose-intervallen en zijn daarmee relatief klein.

4.2.1 Bevolking op 1 januari
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	14,091
1981	14,209
1982	14,286
1983	14,34
1984	14,395
1985	14,454
1986	14,529
1987	14,615
1988	14,715
1989	14,805
1990	14,893
1991	15,01
1992	15,129
1993	15,239
1994	15,342
1995	15,424
1996	15,494
1997	15,567
1998	15,654
1999	15,76
2000	15,864
2001	15,987
2002	16,105
2003	16,193
2004	16,258
2005	16,306
2006	16,334
2007	16,358
2008	16,405
2009	16,486
2010	16,575
2011	16,656
2012	16,73
2013	16,78
2014	16,829
2015	16,901
2016	16,979
2017	17,082
2018	17,181
2019	17,282
2020	17,408
2021	17,475
2022	17,591	17,594
2023	17,817	17,736	17,817	17,755 – 17,887	17,787 – 17,853
2024		17,868	17,999	17,876 – 18,136	17,935 – 18,068
2025		17,98	18,13	17,945 – 18,334	18,038 – 18,234
2026		18,088	18,241	17,993 – 18,495	18,114 – 18,376
2027		18,191	18,33	18,031 – 18,654	18,172 – 18,493
2028		18,29	18,418	18,049 – 18,796	18,223 – 18,615
2029		18,387	18,506	18,074 – 18,955	18,276 – 18,735
2030		18,479	18,593	18,099 – 19,116	18,343 – 18,858
2031		18,569	18,679	18,107 – 19,291	18,395 – 18,982
2032		18,655	18,763	18,131 – 19,478	18,445 – 19,097
2033		18,738	18,846	18,157 – 19,651	18,495 – 19,216
2034		18,817	18,927	18,184 – 19,79	18,546 – 19,317
2035		18,892	19,005	18,171 – 19,934	18,591 – 19,423
2036		18,964	19,082	18,189 – 20,083	18,632 – 19,529
2037		19,032	19,154	18,196 – 20,25	18,668 – 19,648
2038		19,095	19,223	18,184 – 20,358	18,703 – 19,754
2039		19,155	19,287	18,174 – 20,486	18,729 – 19,868
2040		19,211	19,348	18,186 – 20,635	18,753 – 19,977
2041		19,264	19,405	18,189 – 20,786	18,774 – 20,057
2042		19,313	19,458	18,165 – 20,909	18,779 – 20,134
2043		19,359	19,508	18,142 – 21,047	18,785 – 20,212
2044		19,403	19,555	18,108 – 21,189	18,798 – 20,308
2045		19,445	19,599	18,107 – 21,319	18,813 – 20,404
2046		19,485	19,641	18,102 – 21,43	18,814 – 20,461
2047		19,523	19,681	18,093 – 21,561	18,821 – 20,537
2048		19,559	19,718	18,073 – 21,663	18,798 – 20,608
2049		19,594	19,755	18,02 – 21,761	18,798 – 20,673
2050		19,628	19,789	18,002 – 21,878	18,772 – 20,752
2051		19,662	19,823	17,978 – 21,99	18,761 – 20,829
2052		19,695	19,856	17,963 – 22,064	18,745 – 20,893
2053		19,728	19,888	17,921 – 22,153	18,755 – 20,951
2054		19,761	19,921	17,837 – 22,187	18,756 – 21,01
2055		19,796	19,954	17,772 – 22,237	18,748 – 21,092
2056		19,832	19,989	17,712 – 22,394	18,743 – 21,16
2057		19,87	20,025	17,675 – 22,51	18,747 – 21,266
2058		19,91	20,064	17,68 – 22,619	18,748 – 21,355
2059		19,953	20,105	17,674 – 22,719	18,765 – 21,427
2060		19,998	20,149	17,662 – 22,812	18,794 – 21,501
2061		20,046	20,196	17,622 – 22,891	18,797 – 21,573
2062		20,098	20,246	17,6 – 23,012	18,793 – 21,644
2063		20,152	20,3	17,584 – 23,196	18,828 – 21,737
2064		20,209	20,357	17,589 – 23,331	18,844 – 21,812
2065		20,269	20,416	17,558 – 23,449	18,854 – 21,896
2066		20,332	20,479	17,525 – 23,598	18,872 – 21,976
2067		20,396	20,544	17,529 – 23,757	18,914 – 22,044
2068		20,462	20,611	17,479 – 23,908	18,932 – 22,15
2069		20,53	20,679	17,503 – 24,038	18,955 – 22,269
2070		20,599	20,749	17,502 – 24,203	19,017 – 22,371

4.2.1 Bevolking op 1 januari
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	14,091
1981	14,209
1982	14,286
1983	14,34
1984	14,395
1985	14,454
1986	14,529
1987	14,615
1988	14,715
1989	14,805
1990	14,893
1991	15,01
1992	15,129
1993	15,239
1994	15,342
1995	15,424
1996	15,494
1997	15,567
1998	15,654
1999	15,76
2000	15,864
2001	15,987
2002	16,105
2003	16,193
2004	16,258
2005	16,306
2006	16,334
2007	16,358
2008	16,405
2009	16,486
2010	16,575
2011	16,656
2012	16,73
2013	16,78
2014	16,829
2015	16,901
2016	16,979
2017	17,082
2018	17,181
2019	17,282
2020	17,408
2021	17,475
2022	17,591	17,594
2023	17,817	17,736	17,817	17,755 – 17,887	17,787 – 17,853
2024		17,868	17,999	17,876 – 18,136	17,935 – 18,068
2025		17,98	18,13	17,945 – 18,334	18,038 – 18,234
2026		18,088	18,241	17,993 – 18,495	18,114 – 18,376
2027		18,191	18,33	18,031 – 18,654	18,172 – 18,493
2028		18,29	18,418	18,049 – 18,796	18,223 – 18,615
2029		18,387	18,506	18,074 – 18,955	18,276 – 18,735
2030		18,479	18,593	18,099 – 19,116	18,343 – 18,858
2031		18,569	18,679	18,107 – 19,291	18,395 – 18,982
2032		18,655	18,763	18,131 – 19,478	18,445 – 19,097
2033		18,738	18,846	18,157 – 19,651	18,495 – 19,216
2034		18,817	18,927	18,184 – 19,79	18,546 – 19,317
2035		18,892	19,005	18,171 – 19,934	18,591 – 19,423
2036		18,964	19,082	18,189 – 20,083	18,632 – 19,529
2037		19,032	19,154	18,196 – 20,25	18,668 – 19,648
2038		19,095	19,223	18,184 – 20,358	18,703 – 19,754
2039		19,155	19,287	18,174 – 20,486	18,729 – 19,868
2040		19,211	19,348	18,186 – 20,635	18,753 – 19,977
2041		19,264	19,405	18,189 – 20,786	18,774 – 20,057
2042		19,313	19,458	18,165 – 20,909	18,779 – 20,134
2043		19,359	19,508	18,142 – 21,047	18,785 – 20,212
2044		19,403	19,555	18,108 – 21,189	18,798 – 20,308
2045		19,445	19,599	18,107 – 21,319	18,813 – 20,404
2046		19,485	19,641	18,102 – 21,43	18,814 – 20,461
2047		19,523	19,681	18,093 – 21,561	18,821 – 20,537
2048		19,559	19,718	18,073 – 21,663	18,798 – 20,608
2049		19,594	19,755	18,02 – 21,761	18,798 – 20,673
2050		19,628	19,789	18,002 – 21,878	18,772 – 20,752
2051		19,662	19,823	17,978 – 21,99	18,761 – 20,829
2052		19,695	19,856	17,963 – 22,064	18,745 – 20,893
2053		19,728	19,888	17,921 – 22,153	18,755 – 20,951
2054		19,761	19,921	17,837 – 22,187	18,756 – 21,01
2055		19,796	19,954	17,772 – 22,237	18,748 – 21,092
2056		19,832	19,989	17,712 – 22,394	18,743 – 21,16
2057		19,87	20,025	17,675 – 22,51	18,747 – 21,266
2058		19,91	20,064	17,68 – 22,619	18,748 – 21,355
2059		19,953	20,105	17,674 – 22,719	18,765 – 21,427
2060		19,998	20,149	17,662 – 22,812	18,794 – 21,501
2061		20,046	20,196	17,622 – 22,891	18,797 – 21,573
2062		20,098	20,246	17,6 – 23,012	18,793 – 21,644
2063		20,152	20,3	17,584 – 23,196	18,828 – 21,737
2064		20,209	20,357	17,589 – 23,331	18,844 – 21,812
2065		20,269	20,416	17,558 – 23,449	18,854 – 21,896
2066		20,332	20,479	17,525 – 23,598	18,872 – 21,976
2067		20,396	20,544	17,529 – 23,757	18,914 – 22,044
2068		20,462	20,611	17,479 – 23,908	18,932 – 22,15
2069		20,53	20,679	17,503 – 24,038	18,955 – 22,269
2070		20,599	20,749	17,502 – 24,203	19,017 – 22,371

De bevolking groeit niet alleen, maar verandert ook van samenstelling. Het aantal inwoners jonger dan 20 jaar neemt na een kleine daling toe tot 4,2 miljoen rond 2047. Daarna zet weer een kleine daling in. Voor de 20- tot 65-jarigen wordt onder invloed van de extra immigratie tussen 2022 en 2026 een stijging met 294 duizend voorzien tot 10,6 miljoen. Na 2026 daalt de omvang van deze bevolkingsgroep tot 10,4 miljoen in 2038. Het aantal 65-plussers loopt naar verwachting op van 3,6 miljoen in 2022 naar 4,8 miljoen rond 2040.

4.2.2a Bevolking op 1 januari, 0 tot 20 jaar
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	4,432
1981	4,396
1982	4,331
1983	4,253
1984	4,168
1985	4,085
1986	4,019
1987	3,968
1988	3,922
1989	3,875
1990	3,822
1991	3,786
1992	3,762
1993	3,746
1994	3,751
1995	3,76
1996	3,772
1997	3,787
1998	3,809
1999	3,84
2000	3,873
2001	3,908
2002	3,941
2003	3,969
2004	3,988
2005	3,988
2006	3,976
2007	3,957
2008	3,94
2009	3,934
2010	3,928
2011	3,914
2012	3,895
2013	3,871
2014	3,846
2015	3,828
2016	3,818
2017	3,817
2018	3,811
2019	3,792
2020	3,775
2021	3,743
2022	3,738	3,732
2023	3,759	3,724	3,759	3,742 – 3,778	3,75 – 3,769
2024		3,72	3,758	3,724 – 3,793	3,742 – 3,776
2025		3,722	3,755	3,704 – 3,807	3,731 – 3,781
2026		3,731	3,759	3,693 – 3,83	3,726 – 3,794
2027		3,745	3,761	3,679 – 3,851	3,718 – 3,805
2028		3,763	3,77	3,668 – 3,884	3,717 – 3,826
2029		3,778	3,779	3,652 – 3,915	3,714 – 3,846
2030		3,795	3,79	3,639 – 3,954	3,711 – 3,87
2031		3,813	3,804	3,63 – 3,996	3,711 – 3,902
2032		3,836	3,826	3,622 – 4,052	3,713 – 3,937
2033		3,863	3,852	3,615 – 4,11	3,725 – 3,978
2034		3,894	3,884	3,611 – 4,179	3,74 – 4,029
2035		3,921	3,913	3,607 – 4,251	3,753 – 4,077
2036		3,952	3,946	3,606 – 4,301	3,771 – 4,131
2037		3,98	3,978	3,6 – 4,383	3,786 – 4,177
2038		4,01	4,01	3,601 – 4,463	3,801 – 4,226
2039		4,039	4,043	3,584 – 4,537	3,813 – 4,278
2040		4,066	4,073	3,57 – 4,609	3,827 – 4,325
2041		4,092	4,103	3,555 – 4,675	3,839 – 4,375
2042		4,109	4,123	3,529 – 4,732	3,842 – 4,414
2043		4,125	4,151	3,518 – 4,812	3,849 – 4,457
2044		4,136	4,172	3,51 – 4,886	3,85 – 4,494
2045		4,142	4,185	3,486 – 4,936	3,843 – 4,523
2046		4,144	4,191	3,463 – 4,977	3,828 – 4,552
2047		4,142	4,193	3,445 – 5,023	3,815 – 4,571
2048		4,137	4,192	3,422 – 5,059	3,799 – 4,577
2049		4,13	4,187	3,394 – 5,091	3,778 – 4,579
2050		4,121	4,179	3,358 – 5,106	3,744 – 4,581
2051		4,11	4,169	3,324 – 5,103	3,723 – 4,573
2052		4,099	4,157	3,294 – 5,119	3,695 – 4,576
2053		4,089	4,144	3,267 – 5,132	3,663 – 4,573
2054		4,079	4,13	3,24 – 5,123	3,639 – 4,573
2055		4,071	4,118	3,216 – 5,119	3,609 – 4,579
2056		4,065	4,106	3,201 – 5,141	3,583 – 4,588
2057		4,062	4,098	3,17 – 5,165	3,571 – 4,596
2058		4,063	4,093	3,143 – 5,174	3,555 – 4,6
2059		4,067	4,091	3,117 – 5,222	3,537 – 4,609
2060		4,074	4,093	3,077 – 5,245	3,533 – 4,62
2061		4,084	4,099	3,066 – 5,281	3,526 – 4,646
2062		4,097	4,108	3,023 – 5,321	3,525 – 4,658
2063		4,112	4,121	3,018 – 5,362	3,522 – 4,673
2064		4,13	4,137	3,016 – 5,405	3,528 – 4,705
2065		4,149	4,155	3,01 – 5,44	3,527 – 4,742
2066		4,17	4,175	3,006 – 5,494	3,524 – 4,79
2067		4,192	4,197	2,981 – 5,536	3,531 – 4,829
2068		4,214	4,219	2,987 – 5,576	3,526 – 4,875
2069		4,236	4,243	2,975 – 5,68	3,528 – 4,911
2070		4,258	4,266	2,957 – 5,766	3,532 – 4,957

4.2.2a Bevolking op 1 januari, 0 tot 20 jaar
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	4,432
1981	4,396
1982	4,331
1983	4,253
1984	4,168
1985	4,085
1986	4,019
1987	3,968
1988	3,922
1989	3,875
1990	3,822
1991	3,786
1992	3,762
1993	3,746
1994	3,751
1995	3,76
1996	3,772
1997	3,787
1998	3,809
1999	3,84
2000	3,873
2001	3,908
2002	3,941
2003	3,969
2004	3,988
2005	3,988
2006	3,976
2007	3,957
2008	3,94
2009	3,934
2010	3,928
2011	3,914
2012	3,895
2013	3,871
2014	3,846
2015	3,828
2016	3,818
2017	3,817
2018	3,811
2019	3,792
2020	3,775
2021	3,743
2022	3,738	3,732
2023	3,759	3,724	3,759	3,742 – 3,778	3,75 – 3,769
2024		3,72	3,758	3,724 – 3,793	3,742 – 3,776
2025		3,722	3,755	3,704 – 3,807	3,731 – 3,781
2026		3,731	3,759	3,693 – 3,83	3,726 – 3,794
2027		3,745	3,761	3,679 – 3,851	3,718 – 3,805
2028		3,763	3,77	3,668 – 3,884	3,717 – 3,826
2029		3,778	3,779	3,652 – 3,915	3,714 – 3,846
2030		3,795	3,79	3,639 – 3,954	3,711 – 3,87
2031		3,813	3,804	3,63 – 3,996	3,711 – 3,902
2032		3,836	3,826	3,622 – 4,052	3,713 – 3,937
2033		3,863	3,852	3,615 – 4,11	3,725 – 3,978
2034		3,894	3,884	3,611 – 4,179	3,74 – 4,029
2035		3,921	3,913	3,607 – 4,251	3,753 – 4,077
2036		3,952	3,946	3,606 – 4,301	3,771 – 4,131
2037		3,98	3,978	3,6 – 4,383	3,786 – 4,177
2038		4,01	4,01	3,601 – 4,463	3,801 – 4,226
2039		4,039	4,043	3,584 – 4,537	3,813 – 4,278
2040		4,066	4,073	3,57 – 4,609	3,827 – 4,325
2041		4,092	4,103	3,555 – 4,675	3,839 – 4,375
2042		4,109	4,123	3,529 – 4,732	3,842 – 4,414
2043		4,125	4,151	3,518 – 4,812	3,849 – 4,457
2044		4,136	4,172	3,51 – 4,886	3,85 – 4,494
2045		4,142	4,185	3,486 – 4,936	3,843 – 4,523
2046		4,144	4,191	3,463 – 4,977	3,828 – 4,552
2047		4,142	4,193	3,445 – 5,023	3,815 – 4,571
2048		4,137	4,192	3,422 – 5,059	3,799 – 4,577
2049		4,13	4,187	3,394 – 5,091	3,778 – 4,579
2050		4,121	4,179	3,358 – 5,106	3,744 – 4,581
2051		4,11	4,169	3,324 – 5,103	3,723 – 4,573
2052		4,099	4,157	3,294 – 5,119	3,695 – 4,576
2053		4,089	4,144	3,267 – 5,132	3,663 – 4,573
2054		4,079	4,13	3,24 – 5,123	3,639 – 4,573
2055		4,071	4,118	3,216 – 5,119	3,609 – 4,579
2056		4,065	4,106	3,201 – 5,141	3,583 – 4,588
2057		4,062	4,098	3,17 – 5,165	3,571 – 4,596
2058		4,063	4,093	3,143 – 5,174	3,555 – 4,6
2059		4,067	4,091	3,117 – 5,222	3,537 – 4,609
2060		4,074	4,093	3,077 – 5,245	3,533 – 4,62
2061		4,084	4,099	3,066 – 5,281	3,526 – 4,646
2062		4,097	4,108	3,023 – 5,321	3,525 – 4,658
2063		4,112	4,121	3,018 – 5,362	3,522 – 4,673
2064		4,13	4,137	3,016 – 5,405	3,528 – 4,705
2065		4,149	4,155	3,01 – 5,44	3,527 – 4,742
2066		4,17	4,175	3,006 – 5,494	3,524 – 4,79
2067		4,192	4,197	2,981 – 5,536	3,531 – 4,829
2068		4,214	4,219	2,987 – 5,576	3,526 – 4,875
2069		4,236	4,243	2,975 – 5,68	3,528 – 4,911
2070		4,258	4,266	2,957 – 5,766	3,532 – 4,957

4.2.2b Bevolking op 1 januari, 20 tot 65 jaar
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	8,044
1981	8,171
1982	8,287
1983	8,399
1984	8,519
1985	8,64
1986	8,742
1987	8,843
1988	8,953
1989	9,054
1990	9,165
1991	9,291
1992	9,407
1993	9,507
1994	9,582
1995	9,63
1996	9,661
1997	9,696
1998	9,735
1999	9,789
2000	9,838
2001	9,905
2002	9,966
2003	10,003
2004	10,019
2005	10,029
2006	10,028
2007	10,033
2008	10,05
2009	10,08
2010	10,108
2011	10,147
2012	10,119
2013	10,084
2014	10,064
2015	10,065
2016	10,075
2017	10,105
2018	10,131
2019	10,176
2020	10,24
2021	10,274
2022	10,327	10,333
2023	10,456	10,401	10,456	10,413 – 10,507	10,433 – 10,481
2024		10,453	10,555	10,465 – 10,657	10,508 – 10,608
2025		10,474	10,602	10,46 – 10,752	10,535 – 10,679
2026		10,485	10,621	10,436 – 10,807	10,533 – 10,725
2027		10,485	10,618	10,394 – 10,857	10,505 – 10,741
2028		10,477	10,607	10,341 – 10,888	10,476 – 10,757
2029		10,468	10,595	10,279 – 10,912	10,44 – 10,766
2030		10,453	10,579	10,218 – 10,935	10,41 – 10,772
2031		10,441	10,566	10,155 – 10,969	10,375 – 10,782
2032		10,428	10,552	10,091 – 11,003	10,343 – 10,785
2033		10,412	10,535	10,046 – 11,03	10,299 – 10,791
2034		10,389	10,512	10,003 – 11,048	10,256 – 10,781
2035		10,359	10,482	9,949 – 11,061	10,209 – 10,774
2036		10,33	10,453	9,885 – 11,076	10,159 – 10,761
2037		10,312	10,436	9,842 – 11,106	10,124 – 10,766
2038		10,302	10,427	9,801 – 11,134	10,103 – 10,781
2039		10,307	10,432	9,793 – 11,181	10,091 – 10,804
2040		10,32	10,444	9,763 – 11,257	10,082 – 10,838
2041		10,34	10,464	9,758 – 11,298	10,086 – 10,881
2042		10,369	10,492	9,763 – 11,369	10,107 – 10,935
2043		10,398	10,511	9,757 – 11,435	10,11 – 10,969
2044		10,428	10,532	9,737 – 11,48	10,111 – 11,014
2045		10,463	10,561	9,717 – 11,567	10,118 – 11,063
2046		10,493	10,588	9,703 – 11,644	10,13 – 11,101
2047		10,529	10,62	9,681 – 11,689	10,137 – 11,149
2048		10,571	10,658	9,68 – 11,782	10,158 – 11,203
2049		10,616	10,699	9,696 – 11,865	10,167 – 11,258
2050		10,657	10,737	9,714 – 11,931	10,178 – 11,308
2051		10,695	10,774	9,717 – 12,017	10,189 – 11,368
2052		10,729	10,807	9,729 – 12,081	10,209 – 11,429
2053		10,761	10,84	9,705 – 12,167	10,221 – 11,473
2054		10,793	10,873	9,703 – 12,226	10,232 – 11,524
2055		10,821	10,902	9,679 – 12,274	10,249 – 11,572
2056		10,84	10,924	9,656 – 12,318	10,247 – 11,603
2057		10,858	10,945	9,637 – 12,373	10,254 – 11,638
2058		10,875	10,964	9,631 – 12,403	10,26 – 11,694
2059		10,891	10,982	9,622 – 12,455	10,255 – 11,737
2060		10,904	10,998	9,605 – 12,545	10,239 – 11,771
2061		10,919	11,019	9,607 – 12,608	10,24 – 11,819
2062		10,932	11,042	9,601 – 12,653	10,233 – 11,859
2063		10,941	11,056	9,583 – 12,706	10,226 – 11,893
2064		10,943	11,063	9,548 – 12,741	10,217 – 11,929
2065		10,941	11,059	9,511 – 12,791	10,204 – 11,94
2066		10,935	11,046	9,481 – 12,793	10,171 – 11,94
2067		10,933	11,041	9,451 – 12,821	10,147 – 11,956
2068		10,933	11,036	9,406 – 12,847	10,115 – 11,956
2069		10,936	11,015	9,36 – 12,872	10,074 – 11,945
2070		10,944	11,013	9,323 – 12,9	10,044 – 11,932

4.2.2b Bevolking op 1 januari, 20 tot 65 jaar
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	8,044
1981	8,171
1982	8,287
1983	8,399
1984	8,519
1985	8,64
1986	8,742
1987	8,843
1988	8,953
1989	9,054
1990	9,165
1991	9,291
1992	9,407
1993	9,507
1994	9,582
1995	9,63
1996	9,661
1997	9,696
1998	9,735
1999	9,789
2000	9,838
2001	9,905
2002	9,966
2003	10,003
2004	10,019
2005	10,029
2006	10,028
2007	10,033
2008	10,05
2009	10,08
2010	10,108
2011	10,147
2012	10,119
2013	10,084
2014	10,064
2015	10,065
2016	10,075
2017	10,105
2018	10,131
2019	10,176
2020	10,24
2021	10,274
2022	10,327	10,333
2023	10,456	10,401	10,456	10,413 – 10,507	10,433 – 10,481
2024		10,453	10,555	10,465 – 10,657	10,508 – 10,608
2025		10,474	10,602	10,46 – 10,752	10,535 – 10,679
2026		10,485	10,621	10,436 – 10,807	10,533 – 10,725
2027		10,485	10,618	10,394 – 10,857	10,505 – 10,741
2028		10,477	10,607	10,341 – 10,888	10,476 – 10,757
2029		10,468	10,595	10,279 – 10,912	10,44 – 10,766
2030		10,453	10,579	10,218 – 10,935	10,41 – 10,772
2031		10,441	10,566	10,155 – 10,969	10,375 – 10,782
2032		10,428	10,552	10,091 – 11,003	10,343 – 10,785
2033		10,412	10,535	10,046 – 11,03	10,299 – 10,791
2034		10,389	10,512	10,003 – 11,048	10,256 – 10,781
2035		10,359	10,482	9,949 – 11,061	10,209 – 10,774
2036		10,33	10,453	9,885 – 11,076	10,159 – 10,761
2037		10,312	10,436	9,842 – 11,106	10,124 – 10,766
2038		10,302	10,427	9,801 – 11,134	10,103 – 10,781
2039		10,307	10,432	9,793 – 11,181	10,091 – 10,804
2040		10,32	10,444	9,763 – 11,257	10,082 – 10,838
2041		10,34	10,464	9,758 – 11,298	10,086 – 10,881
2042		10,369	10,492	9,763 – 11,369	10,107 – 10,935
2043		10,398	10,511	9,757 – 11,435	10,11 – 10,969
2044		10,428	10,532	9,737 – 11,48	10,111 – 11,014
2045		10,463	10,561	9,717 – 11,567	10,118 – 11,063
2046		10,493	10,588	9,703 – 11,644	10,13 – 11,101
2047		10,529	10,62	9,681 – 11,689	10,137 – 11,149
2048		10,571	10,658	9,68 – 11,782	10,158 – 11,203
2049		10,616	10,699	9,696 – 11,865	10,167 – 11,258
2050		10,657	10,737	9,714 – 11,931	10,178 – 11,308
2051		10,695	10,774	9,717 – 12,017	10,189 – 11,368
2052		10,729	10,807	9,729 – 12,081	10,209 – 11,429
2053		10,761	10,84	9,705 – 12,167	10,221 – 11,473
2054		10,793	10,873	9,703 – 12,226	10,232 – 11,524
2055		10,821	10,902	9,679 – 12,274	10,249 – 11,572
2056		10,84	10,924	9,656 – 12,318	10,247 – 11,603
2057		10,858	10,945	9,637 – 12,373	10,254 – 11,638
2058		10,875	10,964	9,631 – 12,403	10,26 – 11,694
2059		10,891	10,982	9,622 – 12,455	10,255 – 11,737
2060		10,904	10,998	9,605 – 12,545	10,239 – 11,771
2061		10,919	11,019	9,607 – 12,608	10,24 – 11,819
2062		10,932	11,042	9,601 – 12,653	10,233 – 11,859
2063		10,941	11,056	9,583 – 12,706	10,226 – 11,893
2064		10,943	11,063	9,548 – 12,741	10,217 – 11,929
2065		10,941	11,059	9,511 – 12,791	10,204 – 11,94
2066		10,935	11,046	9,481 – 12,793	10,171 – 11,94
2067		10,933	11,041	9,451 – 12,821	10,147 – 11,956
2068		10,933	11,036	9,406 – 12,847	10,115 – 11,956
2069		10,936	11,015	9,36 – 12,872	10,074 – 11,945
2070		10,944	11,013	9,323 – 12,9	10,044 – 11,932

4.2.2c Bevolking op 1 januari, 65 jaar en ouder
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	1,615
1981	1,642
1982	1,668
1983	1,688
1984	1,708
1985	1,73
1986	1,769
1987	1,804
1988	1,84
1989	1,877
1990	1,906
1991	1,934
1992	1,96
1993	1,986
1994	2,008
1995	2,034
1996	2,061
1997	2,084
1998	2,11
1999	2,131
2000	2,152
2001	2,175
2002	2,199
2003	2,22
2004	2,251
2005	2,289
2006	2,33
2007	2,368
2008	2,415
2009	2,472
2010	2,538
2011	2,595
2012	2,716
2013	2,824
2014	2,919
2015	3,008
2016	3,085
2017	3,16
2018	3,239
2019	3,314
2020	3,393
2021	3,458
2022	3,525	3,528
2023	3,603	3,61	3,603	3,59 – 3,614	3,596 – 3,608
2024		3,696	3,686	3,66 – 3,711	3,673 – 3,698
2025		3,784	3,773	3,731 – 3,815	3,752 – 3,792
2026		3,871	3,861	3,799 – 3,918	3,831 – 3,888
2027		3,961	3,951	3,87 – 4,029	3,911 – 3,987
2028		4,051	4,041	3,935 – 4,137	3,991 – 4,086
2029		4,141	4,132	4,0 – 4,247	4,07 – 4,188
2030		4,232	4,224	4,067 – 4,358	4,151 – 4,291
2031		4,315	4,308	4,129 – 4,462	4,224 – 4,385
2032		4,391	4,386	4,185 – 4,563	4,287 – 4,476
2033		4,463	4,459	4,231 – 4,662	4,346 – 4,559
2034		4,534	4,531	4,277 – 4,756	4,405 – 4,641
2035		4,612	4,611	4,331 – 4,867	4,474 – 4,735
2036		4,682	4,682	4,38 – 4,961	4,533 – 4,819
2037		4,74	4,741	4,41 – 5,044	4,577 – 4,892
2038		4,784	4,786	4,422 – 5,117	4,605 – 4,946
2039		4,809	4,813	4,436 – 5,173	4,614 – 4,98
2040		4,825	4,831	4,427 – 5,217	4,615 – 5,01
2041		4,832	4,838	4,397 – 5,244	4,606 – 5,027
2042		4,836	4,844	4,372 – 5,266	4,599 – 5,045
2043		4,837	4,846	4,348 – 5,3	4,591 – 5,062
2044		4,839	4,85	4,327 – 5,331	4,585 – 5,082
2045		4,84	4,853	4,298 – 5,351	4,574 – 5,096
2046		4,848	4,862	4,281 – 5,38	4,572 – 5,118
2047		4,851	4,868	4,271 – 5,402	4,568 – 5,137
2048		4,851	4,869	4,26 – 5,413	4,556 – 5,149
2049		4,848	4,869	4,239 – 5,438	4,545 – 5,162
2050		4,851	4,873	4,226 – 5,481	4,533 – 5,177
2051		4,856	4,881	4,19 – 5,511	4,525 – 5,187
2052		4,867	4,892	4,171 – 5,551	4,526 – 5,216
2053		4,878	4,905	4,147 – 5,586	4,532 – 5,235
2054		4,89	4,918	4,139 – 5,625	4,539 – 5,257
2055		4,904	4,935	4,135 – 5,657	4,547 – 5,281
2056		4,926	4,958	4,14 – 5,71	4,565 – 5,319
2057		4,95	4,982	4,15 – 5,755	4,579 – 5,364
2058		4,973	5,007	4,162 – 5,785	4,597 – 5,388
2059		4,995	5,032	4,171 – 5,835	4,617 – 5,427
2060		5,021	5,058	4,194 – 5,891	4,63 – 5,466
2061		5,043	5,078	4,195 – 5,917	4,641 – 5,491
2062		5,069	5,096	4,202 – 5,942	4,644 – 5,519
2063		5,098	5,123	4,201 – 5,973	4,664 – 5,56
2064		5,137	5,157	4,22 – 6,025	4,696 – 5,6
2065		5,179	5,202	4,247 – 6,088	4,74 – 5,653
2066		5,226	5,258	4,284 – 6,166	4,791 – 5,708
2067		5,271	5,306	4,317 – 6,238	4,838 – 5,767
2068		5,315	5,355	4,357 – 6,294	4,885 – 5,811
2069		5,359	5,422	4,396 – 6,357	4,934 – 5,882
2070		5,397	5,47	4,445 – 6,423	4,971 – 5,94

4.2.2c Bevolking op 1 januari, 65 jaar en ouder
	Waarneming	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose 2022-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	1,615
1981	1,642
1982	1,668
1983	1,688
1984	1,708
1985	1,73
1986	1,769
1987	1,804
1988	1,84
1989	1,877
1990	1,906
1991	1,934
1992	1,96
1993	1,986
1994	2,008
1995	2,034
1996	2,061
1997	2,084
1998	2,11
1999	2,131
2000	2,152
2001	2,175
2002	2,199
2003	2,22
2004	2,251
2005	2,289
2006	2,33
2007	2,368
2008	2,415
2009	2,472
2010	2,538
2011	2,595
2012	2,716
2013	2,824
2014	2,919
2015	3,008
2016	3,085
2017	3,16
2018	3,239
2019	3,314
2020	3,393
2021	3,458
2022	3,525	3,528
2023	3,603	3,61	3,603	3,59 – 3,614	3,596 – 3,608
2024		3,696	3,686	3,66 – 3,711	3,673 – 3,698
2025		3,784	3,773	3,731 – 3,815	3,752 – 3,792
2026		3,871	3,861	3,799 – 3,918	3,831 – 3,888
2027		3,961	3,951	3,87 – 4,029	3,911 – 3,987
2028		4,051	4,041	3,935 – 4,137	3,991 – 4,086
2029		4,141	4,132	4,0 – 4,247	4,07 – 4,188
2030		4,232	4,224	4,067 – 4,358	4,151 – 4,291
2031		4,315	4,308	4,129 – 4,462	4,224 – 4,385
2032		4,391	4,386	4,185 – 4,563	4,287 – 4,476
2033		4,463	4,459	4,231 – 4,662	4,346 – 4,559
2034		4,534	4,531	4,277 – 4,756	4,405 – 4,641
2035		4,612	4,611	4,331 – 4,867	4,474 – 4,735
2036		4,682	4,682	4,38 – 4,961	4,533 – 4,819
2037		4,74	4,741	4,41 – 5,044	4,577 – 4,892
2038		4,784	4,786	4,422 – 5,117	4,605 – 4,946
2039		4,809	4,813	4,436 – 5,173	4,614 – 4,98
2040		4,825	4,831	4,427 – 5,217	4,615 – 5,01
2041		4,832	4,838	4,397 – 5,244	4,606 – 5,027
2042		4,836	4,844	4,372 – 5,266	4,599 – 5,045
2043		4,837	4,846	4,348 – 5,3	4,591 – 5,062
2044		4,839	4,85	4,327 – 5,331	4,585 – 5,082
2045		4,84	4,853	4,298 – 5,351	4,574 – 5,096
2046		4,848	4,862	4,281 – 5,38	4,572 – 5,118
2047		4,851	4,868	4,271 – 5,402	4,568 – 5,137
2048		4,851	4,869	4,26 – 5,413	4,556 – 5,149
2049		4,848	4,869	4,239 – 5,438	4,545 – 5,162
2050		4,851	4,873	4,226 – 5,481	4,533 – 5,177
2051		4,856	4,881	4,19 – 5,511	4,525 – 5,187
2052		4,867	4,892	4,171 – 5,551	4,526 – 5,216
2053		4,878	4,905	4,147 – 5,586	4,532 – 5,235
2054		4,89	4,918	4,139 – 5,625	4,539 – 5,257
2055		4,904	4,935	4,135 – 5,657	4,547 – 5,281
2056		4,926	4,958	4,14 – 5,71	4,565 – 5,319
2057		4,95	4,982	4,15 – 5,755	4,579 – 5,364
2058		4,973	5,007	4,162 – 5,785	4,597 – 5,388
2059		4,995	5,032	4,171 – 5,835	4,617 – 5,427
2060		5,021	5,058	4,194 – 5,891	4,63 – 5,466
2061		5,043	5,078	4,195 – 5,917	4,641 – 5,491
2062		5,069	5,096	4,202 – 5,942	4,644 – 5,519
2063		5,098	5,123	4,201 – 5,973	4,664 – 5,56
2064		5,137	5,157	4,22 – 6,025	4,696 – 5,6
2065		5,179	5,202	4,247 – 6,088	4,74 – 5,653
2066		5,226	5,258	4,284 – 6,166	4,791 – 5,708
2067		5,271	5,306	4,317 – 6,238	4,838 – 5,767
2068		5,315	5,355	4,357 – 6,294	4,885 – 5,811
2069		5,359	5,422	4,396 – 6,357	4,934 – 5,882
2070		5,397	5,47	4,445 – 6,423	4,971 – 5,94