Life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds: 20.96 years in 2030

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According to current projections by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), life expectancy at the age of 65 will stand at 20.96 years in 2030. Policymakers use this figure to determine the future state pension (AOW) age. The life expectancy forecast is part of the 2024-2070 Population forecast, to be published by CBS on 17 December of this year.

The new projection for life expectancy in 2030 is down from last year’s forecast, which was 21.00 years. Determining future life expectancy involves looking at changes in the past, and how these differ from previous forecasts. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality has been higher than expected compared to the period before it. This increase in mortality resulted in lower life expectancy. Since 2022, life expectancy has started to recover, but more slowly than previously projected and the forecast has therefore been adjusted downwards.

The forecast desribes the most likely future trend, but it also involves uncertainties. The final paragraph below outlines these in more detail.

State pension age is based on the CBS forecast

The CBS forecast is used as a basis for determining the future statutory retirement age as stipulated in the General Old Age Pension Act (AOW, Article 7a). According to the AOW Act, this age has been set at 67 years for 2024 to 2027, and will be 67 years and 3 months in 2028 and 2029. On the basis of the life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds in 2030, the Minister of Social Affairs and Employment will determine the statutory retirement age for 2030.

Lower life expectancy since the beginning of the pandemic

Life expectancy for 65-year-olds rose from 14.3 years in 1950 to 20.1 years in 2019.However, this increase I was not the same every year. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, the increase in life expectancy was slower between 2012 and 2018.

Due to higher mortality rates during the coronavirus pandemic, life expectancy for 65-year-olds fell to 19.5 years in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, life expectancy rose to 19.7 years and in 2023 it reached 19.9 years. Looking ahead, this increase is expected to continue, to 20.96 years in 2030.

Life expectancy for women is higher than for men. The gap at age 65 was 2.2 years in 2023.

 

COVID-19 affects future life expectancy

Since 2020, approximately 170 thousand people have died each year. That is an increase of nearly 20 thousand relative to the years before the pandemic. Year-to-date, the number of deaths in 2024 has also been higher than in the same period of 2023.

Although life expectancy has been rising again since 2022, almost reaching pre-pandemic levels by 2023, this recovery has been slower than expected. Meanwhile, COVID-19 remains an ongoing health issue, even though it is less urgent than it was. It is therefore assumed that life expectancy will not fully recover to the level projected before the pandemic.

Most likely scenario

In order to forecast life expectancy, CBS uses a model developed by members of the international scientific community. This model is based on the expectation that the stable decrease in mortality rates around Western Europe will continue in the long term. This means that temporary changes in the trend in the Netherlands have a less distorting effect on future projections than if the model had been based solely on the national figures. However, forecasts are inherently uncertain. The degree of uncertainty around the forecast is calculated by using forecast intervals. These indicate the degree of accuracy of a forecast.

The life expectancy forecast is part of CBS’s annual population forecast, which describes the most likely future population projections in the Netherlands. The 2024-2070 Population forecast will be published on 17 December 2024.

Sources

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