4. Seasonality of electricity consumption related to electrification

The above calculation takes the calendar year as reference, because of the availability of data. The council regulation uses the winter months November to March as reference, the period with the highest electricity consumption and therefore the highest risk of high prices. 

Heat pumps will be using more electricity in winter than in summer though the seasonal pattern may be less strong than for natural gas, because heat pumps are often applied in new houses with low space heating demand compared to hot water demand. On the other hand, energy efficiency of heat pumps using air as heat source is better in summer than in winter, resulting in higher electricity use in winter. On very cold days auxiliary electrical resistance heating may lead to peaks in electricity consumption.

For electric cars the electricity consumption is probably less dependent on weather than for heat pumps, though the cars are reported to be less efficient in winter due to lower efficiency of the battery with lower temperatures. Use of space heating and cooling systems in the cars may also effect seasonal electricity consumption in electric cars.

Statistics Netherlands has no monthly data on electricity consumption for road transport or heat pumps. Qualitatively, based on the arguments above, we can conclude that is likely that electrification will enhance electricity consumption in the winter months more strongly than the average in a whole year.