Electrification in the Netherlands 2017–2021

Electricity prices have reached record levels in 2022 and hit all-time highs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In order to reduce this price the EU has adopted Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices. One of the measures in this regulation is that member states seek to implement measures to achieve a reduction of gross electricity consumption by 10% compared to a reference period (defined as five winters 1 November- 31 March,  from 2017/2018 to 2021/2022). It was agreed that increase of electricity consumption due to electrification may be subtracted from the target. 

This note aims to provide data that may help to quantify electrification in the Netherlands in the relevant period. 

In the council regulation there is no definition of electrification. Wikipedia (2022) provides this definition: Electrification is the process of powering by electricity and, in many contexts, the introduction of such power by changing over from an earlier power source. In the context of the Council Regulation the second part of this definition is most relevant. Therefore, for this note we propose to define electrification as using electricity as an energy source to provide a service previously met by other energy sources (mainly fossil fuels). In the Netherlands in recent years two main electrification technologies emerged:

• Electric heat pumps for space heating and hot water, replacing natural gas
• Electric cars replacing cars driven by fossil fuels

Potentially, electrification may also be used in industry (IEA, 2022). Statistics Netherlands does not collect data  on this yet and we are also not aware of substantial projects already in operation. Therefore, this paper will focus on the two above mentioned types of electrification. 

In  the table below we provide data for heat pumps and electric cars.

Data for electricity for road transport are taken from the official annual electricity statistics and were based on a bottom-up calculation using driven distance of the cars and specific use for each car type.  These data will be published on our online database StatLine in de December 2022 with the next update of the national energy balance.

Data for the heat pumps were taken from calculations made for the official renewable energy statistics and the reporting for the renewable energy directive. These data are based on sales of heat pumps in terms of capacity, an assumption for the life time and average equivalent full load hours and seasonal performance factors from the Protocol Monitoring Renewable Energy (RVO and Statistics Netherlands, 2022). More information on heat pump statistics is available in the publication Hernieuwbare Energie in Nederland (CBS, 2022).

From the table it can be concluded that in the period 2017-2021 electricity consumption by heat pumps and electric road transport was 2,2 TWh on average and is increasing rapidly. In 2021 the electricity consumption was 3,4 TWh, which implies that in 2021 electrification caused an additional electricity consumption of about 1,25 TWh compared to the 2017-2021 average. Statistics Netherlands has no data for 2022 yet, but is very likely that in 2022 electrification will have been increased further due to the sales of new electric cars and new heat pumps.

Total electricity consumption in the Netherlands was 113 TWh in 2021 according to the monthly electricity statistics (published on StatLine and also send to Eurostat). Following the definition of Eurostat this consumption figure is calculated as total net production (gross production minus own use of electricity producing installations) plus net imports minus distribution losses. So, electrification by cars and heat pumps resulted in an additional electricity consumption of a little bit more than one percent in 2021 when comparing with the 2017-2021 period.

The above calculation takes the calendar year as reference, because of the availability of data. The council regulation uses the winter months November to March as reference, the period with the highest electricity consumption and therefore the highest risk of high prices. 

Heat pumps will be using more electricity in winter than in summer though the seasonal pattern may be less strong than for natural gas, because heat pumps are often applied in new houses with low space heating demand compared to hot water demand. On the other hand, energy efficiency of heat pumps using air as heat source is better in summer than in winter, resulting in higher electricity use in winter. On very cold days auxiliary electrical resistance heating may lead to peaks in electricity consumption.

For electric cars the electricity consumption is probably less dependent on weather than for heat pumps, though the cars are reported to be less efficient in winter due to lower efficiency of the battery with lower temperatures. Use of space heating and cooling systems in the cars may also effect seasonal electricity consumption in electric cars.

Statistics Netherlands has no monthly data on electricity consumption for road transport or heat pumps. Qualitatively, based on the arguments above, we can conclude that is likely that electrification will enhance electricity consumption in the winter months more strongly than the average in a whole year.

CBS (2022) Hernieuwbare Energie in Nederland 2021.

European Council (2022) Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 on an emergency intervention to address high energy prices.

IEA (2022), Electrification, IEA, Paris.

RVO and Statistics Netherlands (2022). Protocol Monitoring Renewable Energy.

Wikipedia (2022) Electrification.