4. Ontwikkeling van de bevolking

4.1 Bevolkingsgroei

Het hogere aantal geboorten en het hogere aantal overledenen leiden voor 2021 tot een hogere natuurlijke aanwas (geboorte minus sterfte) dan in de Bevolkingsprognose 2020–2070 was verwacht. Ook in de volgende jaren ligt de verwachte natuurlijke aanwas iets hoger. Het omslagpunt van natuurlijke groei naar natuurlijke krimp vindt, net als in de Bevolkingsprognose 2020–2070, naar verwachting plaats in 2040.

4.1.1 Natuurlijke aanwas; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	67,015
1981	63,054
1982	54,807
1983	52,485
1984	54,624
1985	55,432
1986	59,206
1987	64,468
1988	62,484
1989	60,074
1990	69,141
1991	68,707
1992	66,913
1993	57,953
1994	62,14
1995	54,838
1996	51,96
1997	56,66
1998	61,926
1999	59,958
2000	66,092
2001	62,226
2002	59,728
2003	58,361
2004	57,454
2005	51,508
2006	49,685
2007	48,314
2008	49,498
2009	50,68
2010	48,339
2011	44,319
2012	35,146
2013	30,096
2014	35,958
2015	23,376
2016	23,523
2017	19,622
2018	15,162
2019	17,795
2020	0,003	4,257
2021	11,74	3,536	11,74	-5,286 – 26,852	3,661 – 19,674
2022		8,215	20,024	-1,391 – 40,202	9,337 – 29,689
2023		14,185	25,66	-0,008 – 49,911	12,728 – 37,053
2024		19,774	27,26	-2,864 – 54,066	12,47 – 40,445
2025		22,369	27,996	-5,872 – 57,178	11,535 – 42,767
2026		23,0	29,467	-7,782 – 61,561	11,43 – 46,008
2027		25,033	28,941	-11,04 – 64,203	9,658 – 46,759
2028		26,269	28,95	-13,205 – 67,728	7,991 – 47,687
2029		26,627	28,496	-15,726 – 69,65	6,079 – 48,067
2030		25,821	27,412	-19,288 – 70,904	3,539 – 48,336
2031		24,726	25,953	-22,462 – 72,164	1,361 – 48,584
2032		22,045	23,895	-26,324 – 72,283	-1,695 – 47,585
2033		19,399	21,712	-30,372 – 71,909	-5,15 – 46,325
2034		16,703	19,022	-34,858 – 70,749	-9,241 – 43,88
2035		13,89	15,952	-40,348 – 70,001	-13,721 – 41,151
2036		10,874	12,514	-45,645 – 68,69	-18,305 – 38,259
2037		7,617	8,759	-53,644 – 65,936	-23,222 – 34,971
2038		4,396	5,216	-59,24 – 62,291	-27,301 – 32,406
2039		1,28	2,039	-64,446 – 59,598	-30,993 – 29,518
2040		-1,68	-0,996	-67,158 – 56,607	-33,598 – 27,687
2041		-4,475	-3,849	-68,721 – 55,426	-35,845 – 25,772
2042		-7,049	-6,454	-69,85 – 53,651	-37,798 – 24,171
2043		-9,346	-8,759	-70,711 – 53,491	-40,034 – 22,228
2044		-11,373	-10,755	-74,393 – 51,635	-42,555 – 20,67
2045		-13,235	-12,57	-77,8 – 49,88	-44,733 – 18,962
2046		-14,858	-14,089	-80,435 – 48,292	-46,829 – 18,303
2047		-16,321	-15,379	-82,092 – 47,693	-48,755 – 16,93
2048		-17,61	-16,446	-83,643 – 48,059	-50,538 – 15,982
2049		-18,647	-17,255	-84,899 – 48,261	-52,179 – 14,672
2050		-19,359	-17,762	-85,3 – 50,061	-52,407 – 14,579
2051		-19,711	-17,914	-86,095 – 50,84	-52,668 – 15,02
2052		-19,652	-17,653	-87,029 – 52,769	-52,969 – 15,373
2053		-19,136	-16,95	-87,663 – 55,905	-52,964 – 16,499
2054		-18,116	-15,795	-86,581 – 60,831	-52,394 – 17,743
2055		-16,605	-14,196	-85,725 – 64,356	-51,17 – 19,892
2056		-14,63	-12,195	-85,223 – 67,843	-50,064 – 22,851
2057		-12,237	-9,842	-84,942 – 71,823	-49,449 – 27,383
2058		-9,467	-7,206	-84,223 – 77,919	-48,57 – 31,26
2059		-6,376	-4,356	-83,611 – 83,268	-47,85 – 35,039
2060		-3,115	-1,389	-83,207 – 87,981	-45,409 – 37,928
2061		0,179	1,623	-81,995 – 92,599	-43,702 – 42,266
2062		3,406	4,605	-79,869 – 96,514	-41,345 – 46,142
2063		6,5	7,487	-77,056 – 100,254	-39,366 – 50,065
2064		9,412	10,207	-74,567 – 104,738	-36,053 – 53,783
2065		12,064	12,688	-72,957 – 110,052	-34,101 – 57,196
2066		14,396	14,874	-73,358 – 115,174	-32,946 – 60,519
2067		16,386	16,739	-73,869 – 120,118	-32,397 – 63,152
2068		18,006	18,252	-74,575 – 124,307	-31,994 – 64,892
2069		19,261	19,411	-75,91 – 127,252	-31,182 – 66,692
2070		20,101	20,165	-76,849 – 128,106	-30,897 – 67,502

4.1.1 Natuurlijke aanwas; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	67,015
1981	63,054
1982	54,807
1983	52,485
1984	54,624
1985	55,432
1986	59,206
1987	64,468
1988	62,484
1989	60,074
1990	69,141
1991	68,707
1992	66,913
1993	57,953
1994	62,14
1995	54,838
1996	51,96
1997	56,66
1998	61,926
1999	59,958
2000	66,092
2001	62,226
2002	59,728
2003	58,361
2004	57,454
2005	51,508
2006	49,685
2007	48,314
2008	49,498
2009	50,68
2010	48,339
2011	44,319
2012	35,146
2013	30,096
2014	35,958
2015	23,376
2016	23,523
2017	19,622
2018	15,162
2019	17,795
2020	0,003	4,257
2021	11,74	3,536	11,74	-5,286 – 26,852	3,661 – 19,674
2022		8,215	20,024	-1,391 – 40,202	9,337 – 29,689
2023		14,185	25,66	-0,008 – 49,911	12,728 – 37,053
2024		19,774	27,26	-2,864 – 54,066	12,47 – 40,445
2025		22,369	27,996	-5,872 – 57,178	11,535 – 42,767
2026		23,0	29,467	-7,782 – 61,561	11,43 – 46,008
2027		25,033	28,941	-11,04 – 64,203	9,658 – 46,759
2028		26,269	28,95	-13,205 – 67,728	7,991 – 47,687
2029		26,627	28,496	-15,726 – 69,65	6,079 – 48,067
2030		25,821	27,412	-19,288 – 70,904	3,539 – 48,336
2031		24,726	25,953	-22,462 – 72,164	1,361 – 48,584
2032		22,045	23,895	-26,324 – 72,283	-1,695 – 47,585
2033		19,399	21,712	-30,372 – 71,909	-5,15 – 46,325
2034		16,703	19,022	-34,858 – 70,749	-9,241 – 43,88
2035		13,89	15,952	-40,348 – 70,001	-13,721 – 41,151
2036		10,874	12,514	-45,645 – 68,69	-18,305 – 38,259
2037		7,617	8,759	-53,644 – 65,936	-23,222 – 34,971
2038		4,396	5,216	-59,24 – 62,291	-27,301 – 32,406
2039		1,28	2,039	-64,446 – 59,598	-30,993 – 29,518
2040		-1,68	-0,996	-67,158 – 56,607	-33,598 – 27,687
2041		-4,475	-3,849	-68,721 – 55,426	-35,845 – 25,772
2042		-7,049	-6,454	-69,85 – 53,651	-37,798 – 24,171
2043		-9,346	-8,759	-70,711 – 53,491	-40,034 – 22,228
2044		-11,373	-10,755	-74,393 – 51,635	-42,555 – 20,67
2045		-13,235	-12,57	-77,8 – 49,88	-44,733 – 18,962
2046		-14,858	-14,089	-80,435 – 48,292	-46,829 – 18,303
2047		-16,321	-15,379	-82,092 – 47,693	-48,755 – 16,93
2048		-17,61	-16,446	-83,643 – 48,059	-50,538 – 15,982
2049		-18,647	-17,255	-84,899 – 48,261	-52,179 – 14,672
2050		-19,359	-17,762	-85,3 – 50,061	-52,407 – 14,579
2051		-19,711	-17,914	-86,095 – 50,84	-52,668 – 15,02
2052		-19,652	-17,653	-87,029 – 52,769	-52,969 – 15,373
2053		-19,136	-16,95	-87,663 – 55,905	-52,964 – 16,499
2054		-18,116	-15,795	-86,581 – 60,831	-52,394 – 17,743
2055		-16,605	-14,196	-85,725 – 64,356	-51,17 – 19,892
2056		-14,63	-12,195	-85,223 – 67,843	-50,064 – 22,851
2057		-12,237	-9,842	-84,942 – 71,823	-49,449 – 27,383
2058		-9,467	-7,206	-84,223 – 77,919	-48,57 – 31,26
2059		-6,376	-4,356	-83,611 – 83,268	-47,85 – 35,039
2060		-3,115	-1,389	-83,207 – 87,981	-45,409 – 37,928
2061		0,179	1,623	-81,995 – 92,599	-43,702 – 42,266
2062		3,406	4,605	-79,869 – 96,514	-41,345 – 46,142
2063		6,5	7,487	-77,056 – 100,254	-39,366 – 50,065
2064		9,412	10,207	-74,567 – 104,738	-36,053 – 53,783
2065		12,064	12,688	-72,957 – 110,052	-34,101 – 57,196
2066		14,396	14,874	-73,358 – 115,174	-32,946 – 60,519
2067		16,386	16,739	-73,869 – 120,118	-32,397 – 63,152
2068		18,006	18,252	-74,575 – 124,307	-31,994 – 64,892
2069		19,261	19,411	-75,91 – 127,252	-31,182 – 66,692
2070		20,101	20,165	-76,849 – 128,106	-30,897 – 67,502

Het migratiesaldo, het aantal immigranten minus het aantal emigranten, bereikt het hoogste punt in 2022 met 122 duizend. Daarna wordt een daling voorzien. Het migratiesaldo volgens de Kernprognose 2021–2070 is tot en met 2023 hoger dan het migratiesaldo volgens de Bevolkingsprognose 2020–2070, daarna iets lager en na 2030 nagenoeg gelijk. Voor de lange termijn wordt uitgegaan van een migratiesaldo van gemiddeld 50 duizend per jaar. De verwachting is dus dat er meer immigranten naar Nederland komen dan er mensen vertrekken.

4.1.2 Migratiesaldo (inclusief adm. correcties); waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	13,904
1996	16,804
1997	27,887
1998	43,118
1999	40,372
2000	53,873
2001	50,838
2002	24,332
2003	-0,317
2004	-16,216
2005	-27,428
2006	-31,32
2007	-5,757
2008	25,737
2009	34,481
2010	33,081
2011	29,768
2012	13,883
2013	19,103
2014	35,087
2015	55,106
2016	79,194
2017	80,665
2018	86,371
2019	108,035
2020	68,359	58,817
2021	106,5	70,287	106,5	70,296 – 151,001	87,962 – 127,331
2022		97,413	122,062	70,331 – 179,426	96,881 – 150,088
2023		95,323	106,573	44,895 – 172,708	76,682 – 139,164
2024		86,635	85,026	18,881 – 153,952	53,587 – 119,268
2025		81,579	79,547	10,418 – 151,438	46,102 – 115,204
2026		76,394	74,208	2,908 – 147,418	39,527 – 110,68
2027		72,13	70,017	-3,079 – 145,125	34,182 – 108,096
2028		69,463	67,426	-6,333 – 142,729	30,998 – 106,257
2029		65,369	64,188	-9,239 – 141,117	26,976 – 103,71
2030		62,365	61,764	-10,864 – 139,659	24,539 – 101,786
2031		60,666	60,353	-12,562 – 139,906	22,707 – 101,493
2032		59,019	58,716	-14,17 – 139,083	20,99 – 99,822
2033		57,7	57,424	-15,772 – 140,57	19,06 – 99,503
2034		56,553	56,318	-17,629 – 140,723	17,584 – 99,436
2035		56,106	55,898	-20,71 – 141,415	16,472 – 100,193
2036		55,562	55,394	-21,951 – 140,863	15,341 – 100,052
2037		54,975	54,834	-23,852 – 139,762	14,411 – 99,561
2038		54,468	54,353	-25,066 – 138,604	13,697 – 98,562
2039		54,028	53,944	-26,309 – 137,213	12,771 – 97,352
2040		53,606	53,546	-27,772 – 138,078	11,623 – 96,646
2041		53,21	53,181	-29,22 – 139,011	10,767 – 96,099
2042		53,0	52,978	-29,072 – 139,43	10,403 – 95,89
2043		52,763	52,749	-29,716 – 139,777	9,824 – 96,122
2044		52,502	52,488	-30,235 – 140,763	9,179 – 96,527
2045		52,24	52,232	-29,862 – 138,953	9,315 – 96,154
2046		51,995	51,988	-29,839 – 137,433	9,217 – 95,68
2047		51,756	51,749	-30,224 – 136,849	8,527 – 95,304
2048		51,538	51,527	-30,078 – 134,993	8,129 – 94,72
2049		51,318	51,312	-29,89 – 133,796	7,724 – 94,068
2050		51,158	51,16	-29,681 – 133,888	8,008 – 93,373
2051		50,912	50,91	-29,82 – 134,169	7,193 – 92,617
2052		50,659	50,664	-29,899 – 134,731	7,143 – 92,382
2053		50,491	50,488	-30,125 – 136,213	7,13 – 92,618
2054		50,363	50,361	-30,595 – 136,379	7,263 – 93,17
2055		50,217	50,219	-31,344 – 137,517	6,435 – 93,136
2056		50,104	50,111	-32,464 – 138,282	6,587 – 93,4
2057		50,033	50,033	-33,665 – 138,295	6,313 – 93,02
2058		49,936	49,937	-33,635 – 137,201	6,157 – 92,372
2059		49,844	49,84	-33,656 – 137,252	6,051 – 91,558
2060		49,827	49,823	-33,581 – 134,491	6,247 – 91,672
2061		49,766	49,775	-33,307 – 133,311	6,096 – 91,502
2062		49,74	49,738	-33,293 – 132,744	6,247 – 91,569
2063		49,688	49,681	-33,538 – 134,141	6,683 – 91,13
2064		49,649	49,657	-33,396 – 133,857	6,694 – 90,91
2065		49,615	49,62	-31,682 – 135,286	6,934 – 91,218
2066		49,612	49,615	-31,209 – 136,312	7,6 – 91,647
2067		49,599	49,597	-30,363 – 136,882	7,311 – 91,535
2068		49,583	49,582	-30,069 – 136,176	6,725 – 92,024
2069		49,586	49,588	-29,903 – 136,395	6,802 – 92,306
2070		49,56	49,353	-30,635 – 136,044	5,273 – 91,246

4.1.2 Migratiesaldo (inclusief adm. correcties); waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	13,904
1996	16,804
1997	27,887
1998	43,118
1999	40,372
2000	53,873
2001	50,838
2002	24,332
2003	-0,317
2004	-16,216
2005	-27,428
2006	-31,32
2007	-5,757
2008	25,737
2009	34,481
2010	33,081
2011	29,768
2012	13,883
2013	19,103
2014	35,087
2015	55,106
2016	79,194
2017	80,665
2018	86,371
2019	108,035
2020	68,359	58,817
2021	106,5	70,287	106,5	70,296 – 151,001	87,962 – 127,331
2022		97,413	122,062	70,331 – 179,426	96,881 – 150,088
2023		95,323	106,573	44,895 – 172,708	76,682 – 139,164
2024		86,635	85,026	18,881 – 153,952	53,587 – 119,268
2025		81,579	79,547	10,418 – 151,438	46,102 – 115,204
2026		76,394	74,208	2,908 – 147,418	39,527 – 110,68
2027		72,13	70,017	-3,079 – 145,125	34,182 – 108,096
2028		69,463	67,426	-6,333 – 142,729	30,998 – 106,257
2029		65,369	64,188	-9,239 – 141,117	26,976 – 103,71
2030		62,365	61,764	-10,864 – 139,659	24,539 – 101,786
2031		60,666	60,353	-12,562 – 139,906	22,707 – 101,493
2032		59,019	58,716	-14,17 – 139,083	20,99 – 99,822
2033		57,7	57,424	-15,772 – 140,57	19,06 – 99,503
2034		56,553	56,318	-17,629 – 140,723	17,584 – 99,436
2035		56,106	55,898	-20,71 – 141,415	16,472 – 100,193
2036		55,562	55,394	-21,951 – 140,863	15,341 – 100,052
2037		54,975	54,834	-23,852 – 139,762	14,411 – 99,561
2038		54,468	54,353	-25,066 – 138,604	13,697 – 98,562
2039		54,028	53,944	-26,309 – 137,213	12,771 – 97,352
2040		53,606	53,546	-27,772 – 138,078	11,623 – 96,646
2041		53,21	53,181	-29,22 – 139,011	10,767 – 96,099
2042		53,0	52,978	-29,072 – 139,43	10,403 – 95,89
2043		52,763	52,749	-29,716 – 139,777	9,824 – 96,122
2044		52,502	52,488	-30,235 – 140,763	9,179 – 96,527
2045		52,24	52,232	-29,862 – 138,953	9,315 – 96,154
2046		51,995	51,988	-29,839 – 137,433	9,217 – 95,68
2047		51,756	51,749	-30,224 – 136,849	8,527 – 95,304
2048		51,538	51,527	-30,078 – 134,993	8,129 – 94,72
2049		51,318	51,312	-29,89 – 133,796	7,724 – 94,068
2050		51,158	51,16	-29,681 – 133,888	8,008 – 93,373
2051		50,912	50,91	-29,82 – 134,169	7,193 – 92,617
2052		50,659	50,664	-29,899 – 134,731	7,143 – 92,382
2053		50,491	50,488	-30,125 – 136,213	7,13 – 92,618
2054		50,363	50,361	-30,595 – 136,379	7,263 – 93,17
2055		50,217	50,219	-31,344 – 137,517	6,435 – 93,136
2056		50,104	50,111	-32,464 – 138,282	6,587 – 93,4
2057		50,033	50,033	-33,665 – 138,295	6,313 – 93,02
2058		49,936	49,937	-33,635 – 137,201	6,157 – 92,372
2059		49,844	49,84	-33,656 – 137,252	6,051 – 91,558
2060		49,827	49,823	-33,581 – 134,491	6,247 – 91,672
2061		49,766	49,775	-33,307 – 133,311	6,096 – 91,502
2062		49,74	49,738	-33,293 – 132,744	6,247 – 91,569
2063		49,688	49,681	-33,538 – 134,141	6,683 – 91,13
2064		49,649	49,657	-33,396 – 133,857	6,694 – 90,91
2065		49,615	49,62	-31,682 – 135,286	6,934 – 91,218
2066		49,612	49,615	-31,209 – 136,312	7,6 – 91,647
2067		49,599	49,597	-30,363 – 136,882	7,311 – 91,535
2068		49,583	49,582	-30,069 – 136,176	6,725 – 92,024
2069		49,586	49,588	-29,903 – 136,395	6,802 – 92,306
2070		49,56	49,353	-30,635 – 136,044	5,273 – 91,246

De som van de natuurlijke aanwas en het migratiesaldo is gelijk aan de bevolkingsgroei. Voor 2021 wordt een bevolkingsgroei van 118 duizend voorzien, 44 duizend meer dan in de Bevolkingsprognose 2020–2070 werd verwacht. Rond 2050 is de bevolkingsgroei het geringst, 31 duizend.

4.1.3 Bevolkingsgroei; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	68,742
1996	68,764
1997	84,547
1998	105,044
1999	100,33
2000	119,965
2001	113,064
2002	84,06
2003	58,044
2004	41,238
2005	24,08
2006	18,365
2007	42,557
2008	75,235
2009	85,161
2010	81,42
2011	74,087
2012	49,029
2013	49,199
2014	71,045
2015	78,482
2016	102,717
2017	100,287
2018	101,533
2019	125,83
2020	68,362	63,074
2021	118,24	73,823	118,24	76,689 – 162,27	98,759 – 141,527
2022		105,628	142,086	85,478 – 200,607	113,537 – 172,603
2023		109,508	132,233	64,981 – 203,025	97,265 – 168,406
2024		106,409	112,286	39,768 – 190,144	75,178 – 151,411
2025		103,948	107,543	31,392 – 190,88	67,909 – 148,829
2026		99,394	103,675	23,041 – 189,449	61,221 – 146,234
2027		97,163	98,958	14,076 – 187,77	53,66 – 143,123
2028		95,732	96,376	7,863 – 189,206	49,117 – 142,651
2029		91,996	92,684	2,775 – 189,315	45,183 – 140,606
2030		88,186	89,176	-2,646 – 189,419	40,514 – 137,901
2031		85,392	86,306	-7,179 – 187,906	37,896 – 136,18
2032		81,064	82,611	-13,01 – 188,157	33,066 – 133,184
2033		77,099	79,136	-17,725 – 185,645	28,583 – 130,979
2034		73,256	75,34	-25,461 – 183,767	23,402 – 127,629
2035		69,996	71,85	-31,523 – 182,297	17,882 – 125,747
2036		66,436	67,908	-39,687 – 180,4	11,939 – 123,614
2037		62,592	63,593	-45,702 – 177,328	6,15 – 120,002
2038		58,864	59,569	-51,715 – 171,593	2,437 – 115,269
2039		55,308	55,983	-54,741 – 168,078	-0,903 – 110,448
2040		51,926	52,55	-56,296 – 164,154	-5,301 – 106,963
2041		48,735	49,332	-60,045 – 162,56	-10,045 – 105,641
2042		45,951	46,524	-63,072 – 163,005	-13,435 – 103,761
2043		43,417	43,99	-67,054 – 161,424	-15,788 – 101,361
2044		41,129	41,733	-68,864 – 158,418	-18,415 – 99,032
2045		39,005	39,662	-72,617 – 156,467	-21,822 – 97,175
2046		37,137	37,899	-76,563 – 155,058	-24,876 – 95,935
2047		35,435	36,37	-79,213 – 153,807	-25,778 – 93,488
2048		33,928	35,081	-79,612 – 151,122	-26,662 – 92,191
2049		32,671	34,057	-78,664 – 149,81	-26,49 – 90,266
2050		31,799	33,398	-77,942 – 149,692	-27,548 – 90,348
2051		31,201	32,996	-78,792 – 151,186	-27,077 – 89,249
2052		31,007	33,011	-80,886 – 152,119	-27,86 – 89,18
2053		31,355	33,538	-82,905 – 154,207	-27,193 – 90,396
2054		32,247	34,566	-82,235 – 155,881	-26,955 – 93,615
2055		33,612	36,023	-81,627 – 159,897	-26,118 – 97,571
2056		35,474	37,916	-80,418 – 163,823	-25,924 – 99,299
2057		37,796	40,191	-79,472 – 168,293	-25,464 – 100,818
2058		40,469	42,731	-77,423 – 171,796	-24,166 – 102,703
2059		43,468	45,484	-76,477 – 174,035	-21,639 – 106,391
2060		46,712	48,434	-76,954 – 174,555	-19,54 – 109,65
2061		49,945	51,398	-77,252 – 177,032	-18,011 – 113,611
2062		53,146	54,343	-76,435 – 179,358	-17,081 – 114,897
2063		56,188	57,168	-74,699 – 183,723	-15,179 – 117,581
2064		59,061	59,864	-71,384 – 188,672	-12,706 – 119,927
2065		61,679	62,308	-67,672 – 194,228	-8,54 – 123,593
2066		64,008	64,489	-63,939 – 198,004	-5,51 – 126,195
2067		65,985	66,336	-61,924 – 200,001	-2,259 – 129,642
2068		67,589	67,834	-59,84 – 203,434	-0,202 – 131,561
2069		68,847	68,999	-59,443 – 205,876	2,15 – 132,18
2070		69,661	69,518	-58,628 – 207,939	3,252 – 130,741

4.1.3 Bevolkingsgroei; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1995	68,742
1996	68,764
1997	84,547
1998	105,044
1999	100,33
2000	119,965
2001	113,064
2002	84,06
2003	58,044
2004	41,238
2005	24,08
2006	18,365
2007	42,557
2008	75,235
2009	85,161
2010	81,42
2011	74,087
2012	49,029
2013	49,199
2014	71,045
2015	78,482
2016	102,717
2017	100,287
2018	101,533
2019	125,83
2020	68,362	63,074
2021	118,24	73,823	118,24	76,689 – 162,27	98,759 – 141,527
2022		105,628	142,086	85,478 – 200,607	113,537 – 172,603
2023		109,508	132,233	64,981 – 203,025	97,265 – 168,406
2024		106,409	112,286	39,768 – 190,144	75,178 – 151,411
2025		103,948	107,543	31,392 – 190,88	67,909 – 148,829
2026		99,394	103,675	23,041 – 189,449	61,221 – 146,234
2027		97,163	98,958	14,076 – 187,77	53,66 – 143,123
2028		95,732	96,376	7,863 – 189,206	49,117 – 142,651
2029		91,996	92,684	2,775 – 189,315	45,183 – 140,606
2030		88,186	89,176	-2,646 – 189,419	40,514 – 137,901
2031		85,392	86,306	-7,179 – 187,906	37,896 – 136,18
2032		81,064	82,611	-13,01 – 188,157	33,066 – 133,184
2033		77,099	79,136	-17,725 – 185,645	28,583 – 130,979
2034		73,256	75,34	-25,461 – 183,767	23,402 – 127,629
2035		69,996	71,85	-31,523 – 182,297	17,882 – 125,747
2036		66,436	67,908	-39,687 – 180,4	11,939 – 123,614
2037		62,592	63,593	-45,702 – 177,328	6,15 – 120,002
2038		58,864	59,569	-51,715 – 171,593	2,437 – 115,269
2039		55,308	55,983	-54,741 – 168,078	-0,903 – 110,448
2040		51,926	52,55	-56,296 – 164,154	-5,301 – 106,963
2041		48,735	49,332	-60,045 – 162,56	-10,045 – 105,641
2042		45,951	46,524	-63,072 – 163,005	-13,435 – 103,761
2043		43,417	43,99	-67,054 – 161,424	-15,788 – 101,361
2044		41,129	41,733	-68,864 – 158,418	-18,415 – 99,032
2045		39,005	39,662	-72,617 – 156,467	-21,822 – 97,175
2046		37,137	37,899	-76,563 – 155,058	-24,876 – 95,935
2047		35,435	36,37	-79,213 – 153,807	-25,778 – 93,488
2048		33,928	35,081	-79,612 – 151,122	-26,662 – 92,191
2049		32,671	34,057	-78,664 – 149,81	-26,49 – 90,266
2050		31,799	33,398	-77,942 – 149,692	-27,548 – 90,348
2051		31,201	32,996	-78,792 – 151,186	-27,077 – 89,249
2052		31,007	33,011	-80,886 – 152,119	-27,86 – 89,18
2053		31,355	33,538	-82,905 – 154,207	-27,193 – 90,396
2054		32,247	34,566	-82,235 – 155,881	-26,955 – 93,615
2055		33,612	36,023	-81,627 – 159,897	-26,118 – 97,571
2056		35,474	37,916	-80,418 – 163,823	-25,924 – 99,299
2057		37,796	40,191	-79,472 – 168,293	-25,464 – 100,818
2058		40,469	42,731	-77,423 – 171,796	-24,166 – 102,703
2059		43,468	45,484	-76,477 – 174,035	-21,639 – 106,391
2060		46,712	48,434	-76,954 – 174,555	-19,54 – 109,65
2061		49,945	51,398	-77,252 – 177,032	-18,011 – 113,611
2062		53,146	54,343	-76,435 – 179,358	-17,081 – 114,897
2063		56,188	57,168	-74,699 – 183,723	-15,179 – 117,581
2064		59,061	59,864	-71,384 – 188,672	-12,706 – 119,927
2065		61,679	62,308	-67,672 – 194,228	-8,54 – 123,593
2066		64,008	64,489	-63,939 – 198,004	-5,51 – 126,195
2067		65,985	66,336	-61,924 – 200,001	-2,259 – 129,642
2068		67,589	67,834	-59,84 – 203,434	-0,202 – 131,561
2069		68,847	68,999	-59,443 – 205,876	2,15 – 132,18
2070		69,661	69,518	-58,628 – 207,939	3,252 – 130,741

4.2 Bevolking wordt ouder

In maart 2016 passeerde Nederland de grens van 17 miljoen inwoners. De grens van 18 miljoen inwoners wordt volgens de huidige inzichten in 2025 overschreden. Het aantal van 19 miljoen zal naar verwachting in 2036 worden gehaald, de 20 miljoen wordt bereikt in 2060.

De prognosecijfers zijn met onzekerheden omgeven. Zo kan het aantal migranten van jaar tot jaar sterk fluctueren. Ook is niet zeker of de stijging van de levensduur in de toekomst in hetzelfde tempo zal doorzetten en of Nederlanders een voorkeur voor gezinnen met twee kinderen blijven houden. Bovendien is nog onzeker of de coronapandemie ook op de lange termijn effecten heeft op de bevolkingsontwikkeling. De bevolking in 2070 ligt zeer waarschijnlijk tussen 18,8 miljoen en 22,2 miljoen inwoners.

De bijstellingen in de prognose betekenen dat Nederland in 2030 volgens de nieuwe berekeningen 125 duizend inwoners meer heeft dan eerder werd verwacht. Het verschil loopt op tot 146 duizend in 2050 en tot 176 duizend in 2070. De verschillen liggen ruim binnen de 67 procent prognose-intervallen.

4.2.1 Bevolking op 1 januari; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	14,091
1981	14,209
1982	14,286
1983	14,34
1984	14,395
1985	14,454
1986	14,529
1987	14,615
1988	14,715
1989	14,805
1990	14,893
1991	15,01
1992	15,129
1993	15,239
1994	15,342
1995	15,424
1996	15,494
1997	15,567
1998	15,654
1999	15,76
2000	15,864
2001	15,987
2002	16,105
2003	16,193
2004	16,258
2005	16,306
2006	16,334
2007	16,358
2008	16,405
2009	16,486
2010	16,575
2011	16,656
2012	16,73
2013	16,78
2014	16,829
2015	16,901
2016	16,979
2017	17,082
2018	17,181
2019	17,282
2020	17,408
2021	17,475	17,471
2022	17,594	17,544	17,594	17,552 – 17,638	17,574 – 17,617
2023		17,65	17,736	17,646 – 17,834	17,69 – 17,787
2024		17,76	17,868	17,718 – 18,026	17,794 – 17,948
2025		17,866	17,98	17,768 – 18,197	17,871 – 18,092
2026		17,97	18,088	17,825 – 18,369	17,951 – 18,227
2027		18,069	18,191	17,864 – 18,537	18,016 – 18,369
2028		18,167	18,29	17,895 – 18,695	18,082 – 18,502
2029		18,262	18,387	17,926 – 18,875	18,147 – 18,635
2030		18,354	18,479	17,952 – 19,059	18,208 – 18,763
2031		18,442	18,569	17,976 – 19,245	18,264 – 18,88
2032		18,528	18,655	18,003 – 19,428	18,318 – 19,004
2033		18,609	18,738	18,023 – 19,582	18,372 – 19,111
2034		18,686	18,817	18,031 – 19,728	18,411 – 19,222
2035		18,759	18,892	18,035 – 19,876	18,458 – 19,325
2036		18,829	18,964	18,032 – 20,019	18,493 – 19,444
2037		18,896	19,032	18,016 – 20,141	18,528 – 19,56
2038		18,958	19,095	18,03 – 20,271	18,554 – 19,667
2039		19,017	19,155	18,048 – 20,406	18,57 – 19,767
2040		19,072	19,211	18,025 – 20,542	18,593 – 19,855
2041		19,124	19,264	17,98 – 20,663	18,605 – 19,92
2042		19,173	19,313	17,971 – 20,794	18,602 – 19,996
2043		19,219	19,359	17,947 – 20,957	18,603 – 20,102
2044		19,262	19,403	17,937 – 21,091	18,618 – 20,188
2045		19,304	19,445	17,924 – 21,216	18,612 – 20,263
2046		19,343	19,485	17,914 – 21,342	18,629 – 20,329
2047		19,38	19,523	17,887 – 21,462	18,621 – 20,39
2048		19,415	19,559	17,849 – 21,548	18,611 – 20,46
2049		19,449	19,594	17,82 – 21,647	18,588 – 20,544
2050		19,482	19,628	17,786 – 21,746	18,573 – 20,625
2051		19,514	19,662	17,772 – 21,818	18,57 – 20,675
2052		19,545	19,695	17,697 – 21,927	18,567 – 20,734
2053		19,576	19,728	17,657 – 21,955	18,57 – 20,801
2054		19,607	19,761	17,586 – 22,059	18,559 – 20,864
2055		19,639	19,796	17,54 – 22,167	18,556 – 20,953
2056		19,673	19,832	17,53 – 22,278	18,559 – 21,049
2057		19,708	19,87	17,516 – 22,387	18,56 – 21,136
2058		19,746	19,91	17,508 – 22,486	18,579 – 21,229
2059		19,787	19,953	17,438 – 22,595	18,612 – 21,294
2060		19,83	19,998	17,372 – 22,702	18,602 – 21,351
2061		19,877	20,046	17,35 – 22,806	18,617 – 21,432
2062		19,927	20,098	17,382 – 22,966	18,631 – 21,504
2063		19,98	20,152	17,393 – 23,085	18,639 – 21,591
2064		20,036	20,209	17,372 – 23,242	18,649 – 21,676
2065		20,095	20,269	17,363 – 23,369	18,665 – 21,738
2066		20,157	20,332	17,328 – 23,481	18,688 – 21,821
2067		20,221	20,396	17,296 – 23,685	18,725 – 21,921
2068		20,287	20,462	17,331 – 23,834	18,758 – 22,035
2069		20,355	20,53	17,329 – 23,964	18,803 – 22,131
2070		20,423	20,599	17,315 – 24,091	18,822 – 22,239

4.2.1 Bevolking op 1 januari; waarneming, prognose 2021–2070 (inclusief intervallen) en prognose 2020–2070
	Waarneming	Prognose 2020-2070	Prognose 2021-2070	Prognose-interval (95%)	Prognose-interval (67%)
1980	14,091
1981	14,209
1982	14,286
1983	14,34
1984	14,395
1985	14,454
1986	14,529
1987	14,615
1988	14,715
1989	14,805
1990	14,893
1991	15,01
1992	15,129
1993	15,239
1994	15,342
1995	15,424
1996	15,494
1997	15,567
1998	15,654
1999	15,76
2000	15,864
2001	15,987
2002	16,105
2003	16,193
2004	16,258
2005	16,306
2006	16,334
2007	16,358
2008	16,405
2009	16,486
2010	16,575
2011	16,656
2012	16,73
2013	16,78
2014	16,829
2015	16,901
2016	16,979
2017	17,082
2018	17,181
2019	17,282
2020	17,408
2021	17,475	17,471
2022	17,594	17,544	17,594	17,552 – 17,638	17,574 – 17,617
2023		17,65	17,736	17,646 – 17,834	17,69 – 17,787
2024		17,76	17,868	17,718 – 18,026	17,794 – 17,948
2025		17,866	17,98	17,768 – 18,197	17,871 – 18,092
2026		17,97	18,088	17,825 – 18,369	17,951 – 18,227
2027		18,069	18,191	17,864 – 18,537	18,016 – 18,369
2028		18,167	18,29	17,895 – 18,695	18,082 – 18,502
2029		18,262	18,387	17,926 – 18,875	18,147 – 18,635
2030		18,354	18,479	17,952 – 19,059	18,208 – 18,763
2031		18,442	18,569	17,976 – 19,245	18,264 – 18,88
2032		18,528	18,655	18,003 – 19,428	18,318 – 19,004
2033		18,609	18,738	18,023 – 19,582	18,372 – 19,111
2034		18,686	18,817	18,031 – 19,728	18,411 – 19,222
2035		18,759	18,892	18,035 – 19,876	18,458 – 19,325
2036		18,829	18,964	18,032 – 20,019	18,493 – 19,444
2037		18,896	19,032	18,016 – 20,141	18,528 – 19,56
2038		18,958	19,095	18,03 – 20,271	18,554 – 19,667
2039		19,017	19,155	18,048 – 20,406	18,57 – 19,767
2040		19,072	19,211	18,025 – 20,542	18,593 – 19,855
2041		19,124	19,264	17,98 – 20,663	18,605 – 19,92
2042		19,173	19,313	17,971 – 20,794	18,602 – 19,996
2043		19,219	19,359	17,947 – 20,957	18,603 – 20,102
2044		19,262	19,403	17,937 – 21,091	18,618 – 20,188
2045		19,304	19,445	17,924 – 21,216	18,612 – 20,263
2046		19,343	19,485	17,914 – 21,342	18,629 – 20,329
2047		19,38	19,523	17,887 – 21,462	18,621 – 20,39
2048		19,415	19,559	17,849 – 21,548	18,611 – 20,46
2049		19,449	19,594	17,82 – 21,647	18,588 – 20,544
2050		19,482	19,628	17,786 – 21,746	18,573 – 20,625
2051		19,514	19,662	17,772 – 21,818	18,57 – 20,675
2052		19,545	19,695	17,697 – 21,927	18,567 – 20,734
2053		19,576	19,728	17,657 – 21,955	18,57 – 20,801
2054		19,607	19,761	17,586 – 22,059	18,559 – 20,864
2055		19,639	19,796	17,54 – 22,167	18,556 – 20,953
2056		19,673	19,832	17,53 – 22,278	18,559 – 21,049
2057		19,708	19,87	17,516 – 22,387	18,56 – 21,136
2058		19,746	19,91	17,508 – 22,486	18,579 – 21,229
2059		19,787	19,953	17,438 – 22,595	18,612 – 21,294
2060		19,83	19,998	17,372 – 22,702	18,602 – 21,351
2061		19,877	20,046	17,35 – 22,806	18,617 – 21,432
2062		19,927	20,098	17,382 – 22,966	18,631 – 21,504
2063		19,98	20,152	17,393 – 23,085	18,639 – 21,591
2064		20,036	20,209	17,372 – 23,242	18,649 – 21,676
2065		20,095	20,269	17,363 – 23,369	18,665 – 21,738
2066		20,157	20,332	17,328 – 23,481	18,688 – 21,821
2067		20,221	20,396	17,296 – 23,685	18,725 – 21,921
2068		20,287	20,462	17,331 – 23,834	18,758 – 22,035
2069		20,355	20,53	17,329 – 23,964	18,803 – 22,131
2070		20,423	20,599	17,315 – 24,091	18,822 – 22,239

De bevolking groeit niet alleen, maar verandert ook van samenstelling. Het aantal inwoners jonger dan 20 jaar neemt na een kleine daling toe tot 4,1 miljoen rond 2045. Daarna zet weer een kleine daling in. Voor de 20- tot 65-jarigen wordt onder invloed van de extra immigratie tussen 2021 en 2026 een stijging met 211 duizend voorzien tot 10,5 miljoen. Na 2026 daalt de omvang van deze bevolkingsgroep tot 10,3 miljoen in 2038. Het aantal 65-plussers loopt naar verwachting op van 3,5 miljoen nu naar 4,8 miljoen rond 2040.