Economic picture more negative

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.
Year | Month | cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0)) |
---|---|---|
2021 | April | 0.03 |
2021 | May | 0.17 |
2021 | Juni | 0.26 |
2021 | Juli | 0.34 |
2021 | August | 0.48 |
2021 | September | 0.54 |
2021 | October | 0.57 |
2021 | November | 0.65 |
2021 | December | 0.67 |
2022 | January | 0.66 |
2022 | February | 0.7 |
2022 | March | 0.71 |
2022 | April | 0.7 |
2022 | May | 0.75 |
2022 | June | 0.77 |
2022 | July | 0.76 |
2022 | August | 0.8 |
2022 | September | 0.8 |
2022 | October | 0.76 |
2022 | November | 0.73 |
2022 | December | 0.7 |
2023 | January | 0.65 |
2023 | February | 0.58 |
2023 | March | 0.54 |
2023 | April | 0.48 |
2023 | May | 0.34 |
2023 | June | 0.25 |
2023 | July | 0.14 |
2023 | August | -0.02 |
2023 | September | -0.13 |
2023 | October | -0.23 |
2023 | November | -0.36 |
2023 | December | -0.44 |
2024 | January | -0.49 |
2024 | February | -0.57 |
2024 | March | -0.6 |
2024 | April | -0.61 |
2024 | May | -0.66 |
2024 | June | -0.67 |
2024 | July | -0.67 |
2024 | August | -0.71 |
2024 | September | -0.7 |
2024 | October | -0.65 |
2024 | November | -0.66 |
2024 | December | -0.63 |
2025 | January | -0.61 |
2025 | February | -0.65 |
2025 | March | -0.68 |
Consumers and producers more negative
Consumers were more negative in March than they were in February, and producers were also more negative. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past twenty years.
Year | Month | Consumer confidence (average of the component questions) | Producer confidence (average of the component questions) |
---|---|---|---|
2021 | April | -14 | 3.6 |
2021 | May | -9 | 5.6 |
2021 | June | -3 | 7.8 |
2021 | July | -4 | 9.2 |
2021 | August | -6 | 7.1 |
2021 | September | -5 | 9.1 |
2021 | October | -10 | 10.4 |
2021 | November | -19 | 10.1 |
2021 | December | -25 | 7.3 |
2022 | January | -28 | 6.5 |
2022 | February | -30 | 5.8 |
2022 | March | -39 | 5.7 |
2022 | April | -48 | 7.2 |
2022 | May | -47 | 5.8 |
2022 | June | -50 | 4.2 |
2022 | July | -51 | 5.3 |
2022 | August | -54 | 2.4 |
2022 | September | -59 | 1.2 |
2022 | October | -59 | 0.9 |
2022 | November | -57 | 1.1 |
2022 | December | -52 | 1 |
2023 | January | -49 | 1.1 |
2023 | February | -44 | 0.9 |
2023 | March | -39 | 0.9 |
2023 | April | -37 | -0.3 |
2023 | May | -38 | -1.7 |
2023 | June | -39 | -2.7 |
2023 | July | -39 | -2.7 |
2023 | August | -40 | -4.6 |
2023 | September | -39 | -3.9 |
2023 | October | -38 | -3.7 |
2023 | November | -33 | -2.6 |
2023 | December | -29 | -5.7 |
2014 | January | -28 | -4.4 |
2014 | February | -27 | -4.2 |
2014 | March | -22 | -4.8 |
2014 | April | -21 | -3.6 |
2014 | May | -22 | -2.8 |
2014 | June | -23 | -2.4 |
2014 | July | -24 | -2.7 |
2014 | August | -24 | -1.9 |
2014 | September | -21 | -1.7 |
2014 | October | -22 | -3.2 |
2014 | November | -25 | -1.8 |
2014 | December | -26 | -1.6 |
2025 | January | -28 | -1.6 |
2025 | February | -32 | -1.2 |
2025 | March | -34 | -1.5 |
Household consumption and exports up, investment down
In January 2025, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 5.1 percent year on year. Export volumes were higher for machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical products, food, beverages and tobacco and electrical equipment.
Household spending was 1.2 percent higher in January 2025 than it was in January 2024, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on both services and goods.
In January 2024, the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets was down by 0.4 percent year on year. This was mainly due to lower investments in machinery (including defence equipment) and other road transport (lorries, trailers, vans, etc.).
Manufacturing output 0.5 percent higher in January
The calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 0.5 percent higher in January 2025 than it was in January 2024. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 1.0 percent in January relative to December.
More bankruptcies in February
Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 45 more bankruptcies in February than in January. That was an increase of 14 percent. The number of bankruptcies has not increased- since 2024.
House prices up by 10.6 percent in February
In February 2025, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new-build homes) were 10.6 percent higher than one year previously, on average. Prices remained virtually the same as in January.
Same number of hours worked, more vacancies, more unemployed
In Q4 2024, employees and self-employed people worked a total of over 3.7 billion hours, the same number as in the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects.
At the end of Q4 2024, there were almost 404 thousand vacancies, 7 thousand more than in the previous quarter.
Unemployment stood at 392 thousand in February 2025. The number of people unemployed increased by a monthly average of 7 thousand over the past three months. As a result, the unemployment rate amounted to 3.8 percent in February.
In Q4 2024, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 0.8 percent higher than in Q4 2023.
Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q4 2024
According to the second estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2024, relative to the previous quarter. The growth that occurred in Q4 was mainly due to the trade balance and investment. Consumption also made a positive contribution.
Year | Quarter | Index (2021=100) |
---|---|---|
2021 | Quarter 1 | 96.2 |
2021 | Quarter 2 | 99.9 |
2021 | Quarter 3 | 101.9 |
2021 | Quarter 4 | 102 |
2022 | Quarter 1 | 103 |
2022 | Quarter 2 | 105.7 |
2022 | Quarter 3 | 105.7 |
2022 | Quarter 4 | 105.6 |
2023 | Quarter 1 | 105.4 |
2023 | Quarter 2 | 105.2 |
2023 | Quarter 3 | 104.8 |
2023 | Quarter 4 | 105 |
2024 | Quarter 1 | 104.8 |
2024 | Quarter 2 | 105.8 |
2024 | Quarter 3 | 106.7 |
2024 | Quarter 4 | 107.1 |
Related items
- Visualisations - Business Cycle Tracer
- Dossier - Business cycle