Forecast: population of the Netherlands will reach 19 million in 2037

© CBS
The population of the Netherlands will continue to grow in the years to come, but less rapidly than in recent years. It is forecast to reach 19 million inhabitants by 2037 and 20 million by 2058. This is mainly due to net migration from abroad and because people are living ever longer, on average. By 2040, a quarter of the population will be aged 65 years or older. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the 2024-2070 Core Forecast.

In 2024, the population is estimated to have grown by 105 thousand persons. That is 26 thousand fewer than in 2023. Over the next five years, it is expected to grow by an average of 82 thousand each year.

In recent years, population growth has mainly been due to immigration from abroad. Following a decline in 2020, when travel restrictions were in place during the coronavirus pandemic, immigration from abroad picked up again in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, many people arrived in the Netherlands from Ukraine because of the war there. Immigration is expected to fall somewhat in the next few years, while emigration is expected to continue rising as some migrants return home after spending a few years in the Netherlands. However, immigration is forecast to continue to exceed emigration in the future, too.

Death rate higher than birth rate

Over the next few years, the death rate is expected to be higher than the birth rate. Between 2028 and 2040, more births than deaths are projected; however, after that, the situation reverses again.

The number of children born every year peaked in 2021, since when the birth rate has been declining. The number of births is expected to increase again in the next few years due to the rising birth rate among women aged over 30, and the increase in the number of women of childbearing age.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, mortality has risen in each successive year. It is expected to remain at about the same level over the next few years, as the effect of the increasing number of older people on the death rate is offset by an increase in the average life span. After 2030, this is no longer expected to be the case, and the number of deaths will gradually increase as the population ages. This means that after 2030 the population will grow at a slower rate.

A quarter of the population will be 65 or older by 2040

The proportion of the population aged over 65 will rise from nearly 21 percent at the end of 2024, to 25 percent by 2040. The factors contributing to this are the post-war baby boom and higher birth rates in the 1960s, combined with increasing life expectancy. The number of older people is expected to stabilise between 2040 and 2050. By that time, smaller birth cohorts will be turning 65 and many elderly people from the post-war generations will be passing away. The number of older people is projected to rise again after 2050, however, partly due to the large generation of millennials who will turn 65.

The number of over-80s is projected to double over the next two decades, from 0.9 million people at the end of 2024 to 1.8 million in 2045. According to the forecast, the number of people aged 65 and over will continue to rise to 2.1 million in 2070.

Proportion of people of working age will decline

The number of people aged between 20 and 64 years is expected to remain at around the level of 10.6 million between 2024 and 2040. After that it will increase gradually to 11.1 million by 2070. The share of the population in this age group will decline from 59 percent at the end of 2024 to 54 percent by 2070.

In 2024, there were 3.7 million people aged 0-19 years. Between now and 2031, the number of people in this age group will fall slightly, but after that it will rise to 4.1 million by 2070. The share of young people in the total population as a whole will remain constant at around 20 percent.

Population in 2070 now predicted to be higher than in previous forecast

The population forecast is adjusted every year to take account of the most recent figures and insights. Compared to last year’s forecast, most of the changes made concern the near term, and relate to the rise in immigration and mortality and the fall in the birth rate and emigration. These adjustments mean that the projected population for 2070 is 15 thousand higher under the current forecast than the previous forecast. However, compared to the uncertainty around the forecast as a whole, this is a minor difference.

Most likely trajectory and margin of error

In order to forecast the future trajectory of the Dutch population, CBS uses a simulation model based on assumptions about the birth rate, mortality rate, immigration and emigration. This forecast is uncertain, however. Migration, for example, can fluctuate significantly from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the increase in life expectancy will continue at the same rate and whether Dutch people will continue to prefer having two children per family. What we can say is that in 2070, the population will most likely be somewhere between 18.8 million and 22.3 million.

Related items