Economic picture slightly more negative in November

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

With effect from the October 2024 Business Cycle Tracer, a minor revision has been made to the tracer: the time series has been shortened slightly. The settings for the seasonal correction and the filtering of the cycle (the deviation from the long-term trend) have also been recalibrated.

Consumers more negative, producers less negative

Consumers were more negative in November than they were in October. However, producers were less negative. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past twenty years.

Household consumption, exports and investment up

Household spending was 2.6 percent higher in September 2024 than it was in September 2023, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on both services and goods.

In September 2024, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 3.0 percent year on year. Export volumes were higher for food, beverages and tobacco, chemical products, electronic products and electrical equipment, in particular.

In September 2024, the investment volume for tangible fixed assets was up by 0.4 percent year on year. This was mainly due to higher investments in other road transport (lorries, trailers, vans, etc.) and computers.

Manufacturing output down by over 3 percent in September

In September 2024, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.3 percent lower than it was in September 2023. Output has now contracted for fifteen consecutive months. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output fell by 3.0 percent in September relative to August.

Fewer bankruptcies in October

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 41 fewer bankruptcies in October 2024 than in September, a decrease of 11 percent. Although the number of bankruptcies fell in October, the upward trend in the number of bankruptcies has now lasted for over two years.

House prices up by 11.5 percent in October

Existing owner-occupied dwellings were 11.5 percent more expensive in October 2024 than one year previously, on average. That is the largest increase in over two years. Prices were 0.8 percent higher in October than they were in September.

Fewer hours worked and fewer vacancies, unemployment unchanged

In Q3 2023, the number of hours worked fell by 0.2 percent on the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects. Employees and self-employed people worked a total of over 3.7 billion hours in Q3 2024.

At the end of Q3 2024, there were 397 thousand vacancies, 5 thousand fewer than in the previous quarter. The number of vacancies has been falling for almost two consecutive years.

Unemployment remained virtually unchanged in October with 376 thousand people unemployed, equal to September at 3.7 percent of the labour force.

In Q2 2024, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 2.4 percent higher than in Q2 2023.

Economic growth of 0.8 percent in Q3 2024

According to the first estimate from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.8 percent in Q3 2024 relative to the previous quarter. In Q2 the economy grew by 1.1 percent. The growth in Q3 was mainly due to public and household consumption.