Economic cycle affects those with non-European background more than average

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Men who leave education during less favourable economic conditions find it harder to enter the labour force than men who leave education when the economy is performing better. People with a non-European background are particularly affected by less favourable economic conditions, and that effect also persists into their subsequent careers. This is according to research published today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) in the 2024 edition of its Report on Integration and Society.
Previous research has shown that people who were born in the Netherlands but whose parent(s) were born outside Europe – second-generation, non-European migrants – find it more difficult than average to enter the labour force successfully after leaving education. These differences are particularly evident among young men. This year’s study looked at, among other things, whether and to what extent the economic cycle plays a role in this. To discover this, the careers of men who left education in 2007/'08 or 2017/’18 (when plenty of jobs were available: favourable economic conditions), were compared with those who left education in 2012/’13 (when fewer jobs were available: unfavourable economic conditions).

Entering the labour force is more difficult during an economic downturn

Young men are less likely to be in paid work three months after leaving education during an economic downturn than during times of economic growth. They are also less likely to be earning the statutory full-time minimum wage. However, these effects are stronger among men with a non-European background. Among those with a non-European background who left education in 2012/'13 (i.e. during unfavourable economic conditions), around 50 percent were earning the statutory full-time minimum wage after three months; this compares to 64 percent of all men in the same year.

Transition to labour market affects subsequent career

The subsequent careers of men who left education in 2007/'08 were also examined. A distinction was made between those who were earning at least the statutory full-time minimum wage three months after leaving education (‘rapid transition to labour market participation’), and those who were earning less (‘slower transition’). How many hours have people worked since leaving education, and how does that compare with working fulltime?

Slower transition impacts subsequent career

A slower transition to the labour market has longer-term effects on people’s subsequent careers. Men whose transition to the labour market is slower appear to build up less work experience than those who make a faster transition. This is primarily because there are more interruptions to their employment, but also because they are less likely to work full-time. This disadvantage persists long after the period immediately after leaving education.

Second-generation migrants whose transition to the labour market is slower acquire less work experience

Among those who make a faster transition to the labour market after leaving education, the differences between groups of different ethnic origin are minor. But among those who make a slower transition the situation is different. In 2022, men who had made a slower transition to the labour market had worked 20 percent less, on average, than they would have if they had worked without interruption since leaving education. In the same group, men with a non-European background had worked 30 percent less.

Differences between different ethnic backgrounds may also be related to other characteristics that are relevant to a person's progress in the labour market. However, in the case of differences in the transition to the labour market among men with a non-European background and their subsequent careers, these differences have been shown to be unrelated to differences in educational level or the type of education completed. This news release is a summary of the chapter entitled 'Careers of those leaving education during favourable and unfavourable economic conditions'  ('Loopbanen van afgestudeerden in hoog- en laagconjuntuur') in the Report on Integration and Society 2024. This chapter is only available in Dutch, but a summary of the whole report is available in English.

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