Business owners expect staff numbers and investment to increase in 2025

© ANP / Peter Hilz
Business owners anticipate hiring more staff and investing more in 2025, but these expectations are less positive than they were for 2024. Business confidence remains slightly negative. The main obstacle business owners face is a shortage of labour. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the Economic Institute for Construction and Housing (EIB), the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the Netherlands Business Survey.

Entrepreneurs anticipate a net increase in staff numbers next year, but these expectations are less positive than they were for 2024. Fewer business owners in the culture, sports and recreation and real estate activities sectors in particular, expect their workforce to increase. Those in the business services and information and communications sectors are the most positive about hiring more workers in 2025. However, business owners in mining and quarrying anticipate a net decrease in the labour force.

Expected workforce next year 1)
BedrijfstakOctober 2024 (% of entrepreneurs anticipating
an increase or decrease)		October 2023 (% of entrepreneurs anticipating
an increase or decrease)
Total (excluding the financial or
public utilities and construction sectors)		11.615.7
Business services21.824.7
Information and communication20.632.8
Transportation and storage11.712.2
Wholesale and wholesale trade11.614.7
Car trade and repair10.812.9
Other services8.31.0
Manufacturing7.66.3
Culture, sports and recreation6.024.6
Accommodation and food services5.711.6
Real estate activities4.321.0
Retail trade (excl. cars)3.412.5
Agriculture, forestry and fishing1.85.7
Mining and quarrying-7.63.6
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW
1) Due to a technical problem, the results obtained from this question are not available for the construction sector.

Business owners in real estate expect to invest more in 2025

Entrepreneurs in eight sectors expect to increase their investment in 2025 compared to 2024, while the opposite is expected in five other sectors. Expectations are the most positive in the real estate activities, mining and quarrying and transportation and storage sectors. In car trade and repairs and agriculture, forestry and fishing, last year's negative expectation has turned into a positive one. Culture, sports and recreation and retail show the opposite trend. Business owners’ expectations have turned negative and they anticipate low investment growth for 2025 compared to 2024.

Expected investment next year 1)
BedrijfstakOctober 2024 (% of entrepreneurs anticipating
an increase or decrease)		October 2023 (% of entrepreneurs anticipating
an increase or decrease)
Total (excluding the financial or
public utilities and construction sectors)		2.55.3
Real estate activities23.829.8
Mining and quarrying23.551.6
Transporation and storage20.64.7
Business services4.24.6
Car trade and repair3.6-6.9
Manufacturing3.12.6
Agribulture, forestry and fishing2.5-14.1
Wholesale and wholesale trade1.60.7
Culture, sports and recreation-3.922.3
Information and communication-4.34.8
Other services-5.4-8.6
Retrail trade (excl. cars)-6.623.4
Accommodation and food services-6.7-3.7
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW
1) Due to a technical problem, the results obtained from this question are not available for the construction sector.

Business confidence remains virtually unchanged

Business confidence declined sharply between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022, falling to -22.2, and then improved gradually. At the start of Q4 2024, business confidence was still negative at -3.1. The sentiment indicator remained approximately equal compared with Q3. However, business confidence is now slightly above the average (-4.0) for the series since 2012.

Business confidence
JaarMaandBusiness confidence
2019Jan4.0
2019Apr2.4
2019July0.9
2019Oct-4.6
2020Jan-1.6
2020Apr-51.9
2020July-22.8
2020Oct-15.9
2021Jan-11.4
2021Apr0.0
2021July11.9
2021Oct12.9
2022Jan-0.6
2022Apr-9.9
2022July-12.5
2022Oct-22.2
2023Jan-13.2
2023Apr-8.1
2023July-8.3
2023Oct-10.1
2024Jan-7.7
2024Apr-6.0
2024July-3.4
2024Oct-3.1
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

Business confidence is the most negative in accommodation and food services

In the majority of sectors, business confidence was negative at the start of Q4 2024. Entrepreneurs in accommodation and food services were the most negative compared with Q3; the sentiment indicator in this sector fell the most of any sector. The sentiment indicator improved the most in business services and retail, with the former turning from negative to slightly positive. Business confidence was highest in mining and quarrying, followed by those in the transportation and storage and real estate activities sectors.

Business confidence by sector
BedrijfstakOctober 2024July 2024
Total (excl. the financial or
public utilities sector)		-3.1-3.4
Mining and quarrying5.04.1
Transportation and storage1.72.4
Real estate activities1.6-0.7
Business services1.0-4.1
Other services-0.10.0
Construction-0.9-2.4
Information and communication-0.92.0
Car trade and repair-2.7-5.2
Culture, sports and recreation-4.0-1.8
Retail trade (excl. cars)-4.7-9.0
Wholesale and wholesale trade-5.8-3.2
Manufacturing-6.4-4.7
Agriculture, forestry and fishing-9.7-13.2
Accommodation and food services-11.3-4.7
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

Labour shortage is still the main obstacle

At the beginning of Q4 2024, nearly 38 percent of business owners perceived a shortage of labour as the largest obstacle for their business operations. This has been the most frequently reported obstacle since Q3 2021. Over half of entrepreneurs in the transportation and storage, car trade and repair and business services sectors perceived this as the main obstacle. Nearly 34 percent of businesses owners said they had not faced any obstacles in their business operations.

Sources

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