Manufacturers more negative in October

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Erratum:

As of 26 November, the second line of the third paragraph and the second graph of this news release have been revised.

The second line of the third paragraph is adjusted from ‘ Their assessment of the order positions and of current stocks of finished products was more negative’ to ‘ However, their assessment of the order positions and of current stocks of finished products was less negative’

Furthermore, three figures from October have been adjusted in the 2nd graph;

  • Expected output from 9.1 to 6.7
  • Assessment of stocks of finished products from -5.6 to -4.6
  • Assessment of order-book levels from -13.7 to -11.7
Dutch manufacturers were more negative in October than they were in September, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Producer confidence fell from -1.7 in September to -3.2 in October. Manufacturers were less positive about expected output.

Producer confidence in October was below the 20-year average of -1.3. It reached an all-time high (10.4) in October 2021 and an all-time low (-31.5) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2020November-6.4
2020December-3.2
2021January-1.8
2021February-2.6
2021March0.6
2021April3.6
2021May5.6
2021June7.8
2021July9.2
2021August7.1
2021September9.1
2021October10.4
2021November10.1
2021December7.3
2022January6.5
2022February5.8
2022March5.7
2022April7.2
2022May5.8
2022June4.2
2022July5.3
2022August2.4
2022September1.2
2022October0.9
2022November1.1
2022December1
2023January1.1
2023February0.9
2023March0.9
2023April -0.3
2023May-1.7
2023June-2.7
2023July-2.7
2023August-4.6
2023September-3.9
2023Oktober-3.7
2023November-2.6
2023December-5.7
2024January-4.4
2024February-4.2
2024March-4.8
2024April-3.6
2024May-2.8
2024June-2.4
2024July-2.7
2024August-1.9
2024September-1.7
2024October-3.2

Less positive about expected output

Manufacturers were less positive about expected output for the next three months. However, their assessment of the order positions and of current stocks of finished products was less negative. 

One component indicator was positive: manufacturers who anticipated an increase in output over the next three months outnumbered those expecting a decrease.

Two component indicators were negative. Manufacturers were more likely to indicate that their order position was weak rather than strong for the time of year, and more manufacturers described their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 October (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)September (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-3.2-1.7
Expected output6.711.9
Assessment of stocks of finished products-4.6-4.9
Assessment of order-book levels-11.7-12
 

Producer confidence down in over half of industrial sectors

Confidence deteriorated in more than half of the main industrial sectors. Manufacturers in the electrotechnical and machinery sectors were the most positive of all sectors, but less positive than in September.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 October (average of the component questions)September (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery4.46.3
Textiles, clothes, leather-13.2
Timber and building materials-1.9-4
Food, beverages, tobacco-3.8-4.8
Petroleum and chemicals-3.9-0.9
Paper and printing-5.8-1.8
Transport equipment-6.2-8.3
Metal-11.1-7.7

Capacity utilisation rate decreases

The industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 77.1 percent at the start of Q4 2024, compared with 78.0 percent in the previous quarter. That has been the lowest rate since October 2020.

Capacity utilisation rate, first month of the quarter
   Capacity utilisation rate (%)
2021Quarter 180
2021Quarter 281.7
2021Quarter 384.1
2021Quarter 483.8
2022Quarter 183.6
2022Quarter 284.2
2022Quarter 384.2
2022Quarter 482.7
2023Quarter 182.6
2023Quarter 282.5
2023Quarter 381.6
2023Quarter 481
2024Quarter 178.4
2024Quarter 279.6
2024Quarter 378
2024Quarter 477.1

Manufacturing output down by 0.5 percent in August

In August 2024, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 0.5 percent lower than it was in August 2023. The contraction was smaller than in the preceding seven months. After adjustments for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 2.1 percent relative to July.