Economic picture remains equally negative in October

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

With effect from the October 2024 Business Cycle Tracer, a minor revision has been made to the tracer: the time series has been shortened slightly. The settings for the seasonal correction and the filtering of the cycle (the deviation from the long-term trend) have also been recalibrated.

Consumers and producers more negative

Consumers and producers were more negative in October than in September. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past two decades.

Household consumption up, exports and investment down

Household spending was 0.7 percent higher in August 2024 than it was in August 2023, adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on both services and goods.
In August 2024, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was down by 2.1 percent year on year). Export volumes were lower for machinery, petroleum products and transport equipment, in particular.

In August 2024, the investment volume for tangible fixed assets was down by 4.9 percent year on year. This was mainly due to lower investment in buildings, aircraft and other road transport (lorries, trailers, vans, etc.).

Manufacturing output down by 0.5 percent in August

In August 2024, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.5 percent lower than it was in August 2023. The year-on-year contraction was smaller than it had been in the preceding seven months. After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 2.1 percent in August relative to July.

More bankruptcies in September

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 35 more bankruptcies in September 2024 than in August. That was an increase of almost 11 percent. The upward trend in the number of bankruptcies has now lasted for over two years.

House prices up by over 11 percent in September

Existing owner-occupied dwellings were 11.4 percent more expensive in September 2024 than one year previously, on average. That is the largest increase in over two years. Prices were 0.9 percent higher in September than they were in August.

More hours worked, more unemployment and fewer vacancies

In Q2 2023, the number of hours worked rose by 0.4 percent on the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects. Employees and self-employed people worked a total of over 3.7 billion hours in Q2 2024.

In September 2024, there were 377 thousand unemployed persons. Over the past three months, the number of unemployed persons increased by an average of 2 thousand per month. The unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent, unchanged from August.

At the end of Q2 2024, there were 401 thousand vacancies, almost 10 thousand fewer than in the previous quarter. The number of vacancies has been falling for almost two consecutive years, with only a slight increase in Q1 2024.

In Q2 2024, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 2.4 percent higher year on year.

Economic growth of 1.0 percent in Q2 2024

According to the second estimate from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Netherlands’ gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.0 percent in Q2 2024, relative to the previous quarter. The growth in Q2 was mainly due to goods exports. Public consumption and investments also made a positive contribution. The increase in goods exports is also related to the growth seen in the manufacturing sector.