Population growth slows in first half of 2024

© Hollandse Hoogte / David Rozing
The population of the Netherlands grew by 39.0 thousand in the first half of 2024. That was 13.6 thousand less than the increase in the same period last year. Immigration, in particular, has decreased compared to last year, but there has also been a rise in emigration and the number of deaths has had an additional effect. Because the death rate exceeds the birth rate in the Netherlands, any population growth is entirely a result of migration from other countries. At the end of June, the Netherlands had a population of 17.98 million. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this on the basis of provisional figures.

In the first six months of 2024, 138.0 thousand people came to live in the Netherlands and 92.0 thousand people left the country to live elsewhere. Net migration therefore resulted in a population increase of 46.0 thousand people. That was 12.0 thousand less than in the same period last year. This is because immigration has dropped by over 11.0 thousand, while emigration has risen by almost a thousand.

A total of 81.3 thousand live births and 88.4 thousand deaths were recorded in the first six months of the year. The natural population change (births minus deaths) was thus negative: a decline of 7.2 thousand. In the same period last year, the natural population change was a decline of 6 thousand.

Number of European migrants has fallen the most

Net migration (immigration minus emigration) from European countries was lower in the first half of 2024 than in the same period of 2023. This was partly because fewer refugees arrived in the Netherlands from Ukraine, but also because net migration from almost every other European country also dropped. Net migration from outside Europe was also down in the first half of 2024, particularly migration from Asia.

The majority of immigrants still arrived from other parts of Europe, but the number of Europeans who left the Netherlands was also the highest. Overall, in terms of net migration, the majority of migrants came from Asia.

The countries of origin that contributed the most to net migration in the first half of 2024 were Syria (11.3 thousand), Ukraine (6.6 thousand), Turkey (4.5 thousand), Romania (2.0 thousand) and South Africa (1.6 thousand). The number of immigrants arriving from India has fallen: in the first half of 2022, 4.9 thousand migrants arrived from India (net), while in the first half of 2024 the number was 1.5 thousand.

Birth rate in all population groups is now below replacement level

In the first half of 2024, almost a thousand more children were born than in the same period last year. The birth rate has fallen steadily since 2010, when an average of 1.8 children were born per woman. In 2023, the average number of children born per woman was 1.4.

The average birth rate per woman of Dutch origin is 1.5. The birth rate is declining among all population groups and is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This means that if there were no migration into the Netherlands, the population would decline over the longer term. In 2023, the average birth rate among women of Moroccan origin stood at around the replacement level, while the average birth rate among women of Turkish origin was similar to that of Dutch women.

In almost all other European countries, the average birth rate has also declined and now stands below the replacement level. Countries in southern Europe have the lowest average birth rate, ranging from 1.2 in Spain to 1.4 in Portugal (2022 figures).

Sources

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