Seven population scenarios

The population scenarios show the potential population size and composition of our population in 2050 if the birth rate, life expectancy and international migration trends vary from those assumed in the Population Forecast 2023-2070. Two scenarios show what will happen if the population grows more or less than assumed (Growth versus Decline), two variants show what happens if the population ages more or less (Grey versus Green) and three scenarios show the effects of different trends in immigration. The Low Migration scenario is based on a sharp decline in net migration. There are two scenarios for high migration: Labour and Asylum. This is because it is not only important whether migration is high, but also what type of migrants come to the Netherlands. The Labour scenario is based on high migration from countries that migrants come from primarily to work or study (including subsequent family migrants); the Asylum scenario is based on high migration from countries where asylum migrants (including subsequent family migrants) predominate.