Population Outlook 2050: more residents born outside the Netherlands

© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
The number of people living in the Netherlands who were born elsewhere is very likely to increase between now and 2050. Under a high-migration scenario, this number will almost double, from 2.8 million in 2023 to 5.5 million in 2050. But even if immigration is lower than expected, the number of residents born outside the Netherlands will increase. The composition of this group will change from its current composition, however. This is according to figures taken from the study entitled ‘2050 Population Outlook, 2024 edition’ which was conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) at the request and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW).

The previously published CBS Population Forecast 2023-2070 describes the most likely future population trends, but it also contains uncertainties. For this study, seven future scenarios were created to forecast the population in 2050 if the number of children, life expectancy and migration evolve differently than projected in the Population Forecast.

The seven scenarios outlined in 'Population Outlook 2050 – 2024 edition’ T h e s e v e n sc e n ar i os o u tl i n ed i n ' P o p u l a t i o n O u t l o o k 2050 – 20 2 4 ed i t i o n ’ G r o wth High bi r th r ate , li f e e xpectancy and mig r ation V ariant Cha r acteristics Decl i n e L o w bi r th r ate , li f e e xpectancy and mig r ation G r e e n High bi r th r ate , l o w li f e e xpectancy G r e y L o w bi r th r ate , high li f e e xpectancy L o w b irth r a t e L o w net mig r ation Lab o ur High labour and student mig r ation A s y l u m High asylum mig r ation Sou r c e: CBS bi r th r ate li f e e xpectation mig r ation The seven scenarios outlined in 'Population Outlook 2050 – 2024 edition’ Growth High birth rate, life expectancy and migration Variant Characteristics Decline Low birth rate, life expectancy and migration Green High birth rate, low life expectancy Grey Low birth rate, high life expectancy Low birth rate Low net migration Labour High labour and student migration Asylum High asylum migration Source: CBS birth rate life expectation migration

More residents born outside the Netherlands: up from 3.4 million to 5.5 million

At the start of 2023, the Netherlands had 17.8 million residents, of whom 2.8 million (16 percent) were born elsewhere. If average net migration (immigration minus emigration) is relatively low, this group could grow to 3.4 million people by 2050 (Low Migration scenario). Under conditions of relatively high net migration, the number could be as high as 5.5 million people (Labour and Growth scenarios). The percentage of people born outside the Netherlands would also increase, to 19 percent of the population in 2050 in the Low Migration scenario and 26 percent in the Labour scenario.

In 2023, among all those living in the Netherlands, 15.0 million were also born here. That could fall to 13.9 million (Contraction scenario) or increase to 16.4 million (Growth scenario). Under all scenarios, however, the number of people born in the Netherlands with origins outside the Netherlands will increase and the number of people with Dutch origins will decline. In 2023, 73 percent of the population as a whole were of Dutch origin. By 2050, 66 percent of people will still be of Dutch origin if migration is low (Low Migration scenario). With high net migration (Labour and Growth scenarios), the share of people with Dutch origins could fall to 58 percent.

Changing composition of residents born outside the Netherlands

In the past, many people came to the Netherlands from Turkey, Morocco, Suriname, Indonesia and the Caribbean Netherlands (these countries are known as the traditional countries of origin). The expansion of the European Union (EU), a more internationalised labour market and a rise in asylum migration have led to an increase in the number of countries that migrants originate from. In the future, people born in a wider range of countries will live in the Netherlands. In 2023, 28 percent of migrants were from the traditional countries of origin. That share may fall to 14 percent (in the Labour scenario) or 19 percent (in the Low Migration scenario) by 2050. There will be a relative increase in the numbers of migrants with origins in asylum migration countries and labour and study migration countries outside the EU.

Increasing share of people aged between 20 and state pension age born outside the Netherlands in 2050

In 2023, there were 10.1 million people aged between 20 years old and the state pension age. In the Contraction and Low Migration scenarios, that number remains around the same; in the other scenarios, it would increase slightly, to 10.3 million in the Growth scenario.

There will be more people born in a country outside the Netherlands in this age group by 2050. This group will increase by somewhere between 0.3 million (Low Migration scenario) and 2.1 million (Labour and Growth scenarios). In all scenarios, migrants from labour and study migration countries outside the EU will make up the largest proportion of migrants. The number of those of non-Dutch origin born in the Netherlands would also increase in this age group, by somewhere between 0.5 million (Contraction scenario) and 0.7 million (Growth scenario). The number of those born in the Netherlands and with Dutch origins in this age group declines under all scenarios.

During parliamentary discussions with the Cabinet in 2018, the House of Representatives asked the Cabinet to evaluate the consequences of changes in the size and composition of the population in the year 2050. The Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) therefore designed seven future population scenarios at the request of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These show what could happen if the birth rate, life expectancy and migration evolve differently to the assumptions made in CBS’s Population Forecast. In 2024, CBS updated the seven future population scenarios in the Population Outlook 2050 on behalf of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These projections are supplementary to the existing population forecasts published by CBS.

This edition of the population scenarios is part of a larger project that also includes in-depth studies of the backgrounds to demographic trends, and the possible consequences of demographic trends for policy and society. That part of the project is being carried out by NIDI in partnership with CBS. There will be separate publications on this subject, available on the NIDI website and CBS’s Population Forecast Dashboard.

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