Seven population scenarios

The population scenarios project the potential population size and composition of our population in 2050 if the birth rate, life expectancy and international migration trends differ from those assumed in the Population Projection. Two scenarios show what happens if the population grows more or less than assumed (Growth versus Decline), two other scenarios show what happens if the population ages more or less (Grey versus Green) and three scenarios show the effect of different trends in migration. The Low Migration scenario projects a sharp decline in net migration. There are two scenarios for high migration: Labour and Asylum. This is because it is not only important whether migration is high, but also what type of migrants come to the Netherlands. The Labour scenario is based on high migration from countries from which migrants come primarily to work or study (including subsequent family migrants); the Asylum scenario is based on high migration from countries where asylum migrants (including subsequent family migrants) predominate.