Economic picture deteriorates again

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Consumers and producers less negative

In April 2024, Dutch consumers and producers were less negative than they were in the previous month. However, confidence remained below the long-term average for the past two decades.

Household consumption, exports and investment down

Households spent 0.3 percent less in February year on year (adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern). Spending was lower on goods, but slightly higher on services.

In February 2024, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was down by 3.6 percent year on year. Export volumes of petroleum products, machinery, transport equipment and food, beverages and tobacco were lower, in particular.

In February 2024, the investment volume for tangible fixed assets was down by 2.8 percent year on year. This was mainly due to lower investment in buildings and machinery. Investment in motor vehicles was up, however.

Manufacturing output down by over 2 percent in February

In February 2024, the calendar-adjusted output for the Dutch manufacturing sector was 2.3 percent lower than it was in February 2023. Year-on-year output also contracted in the preceding seven months. After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 1.4 percent in February relative to January.

Slightly fewer bankruptcies in March

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 8 fewer bankruptcies in March than in February, a decrease of 2 percent. However, there has been an upward trend in the number of bankruptcies for nearly two years.

House prices up by over 5 percent in March

In March 2024, existing owner-occupied dwellings were 5.4 percent more expensive, on average, relative to one year previously. Prices were 0.7 percent higher in March than they were in February.

More hours worked, higher unemployment and fewer vacancies

In Q4 2023, the number of hours worked rose by 0.1 percent on the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects. Employees and self-employed people worked a total of over 3.6 billion hours in Q4 2023.

In March, 371 thousand people were unemployed. Unemployment rose slightly in the previous three months, by 3 thousand per month on average. The unemployment rate, the number of unemployed people relative to the total labour force, stood at 3.6 percent.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, the number of vacancies continues to fall. At the end of Q4, there were 410 thousand job vacancies, 5 thousand fewer than at the end of Q3.

In Q4 2023, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.9 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q4 2023

According to the second quarterly estimate based on the data currently available, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2023 relative to the previous quarter. Following three consecutive quarters of declining GDP, the growth in Q4 can mainly be attributed to household consumption.