Manufacturers slightly more negative in March

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© ANP / Rob Voss
Dutch manufacturers were slightly more negative in March than one month previously, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Producer confidence went down from -4.2 in February to -4.8 in March. Manufacturers were less positive about expected output and more negative about current stocks.

Producer confidence in March was below the 20-year average of -1.3. It reached an all-time high (10.4) in October 2021 and an all-time low (-31.5) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2020April-31.5
2020May-28.1
2020June-18.7
2020July-11.8
2020August-7.8
2020September-7
2020October-7.7
2020November-6.4
2020December-3.2
2021January-1.8
2021February-2.6
2021March0.6
2021April3.6
2021May5.6
2021June7.8
2021July9.2
2021August7.1
2021September9.1
2021October10.4
2021November10.1
2021December7.3
2022January6.5
2022February5.8
2022March5.7
2022April7.2
2022May5.8
2022June4.2
2022July5.3
2022August2.4
2022September1.2
2022October0.9
2022November1.1
2022December1
2023January1.1
2023February0.9
2023March0.9
2023April -0.3
2023May-1.7
2023June-2.7
2023July-2.7
2023August-4.6
2023September-3.9
2023Oktober-3.7
2023November-2.6
2023December-5.7
2024January-4.4
2024February-4.2
2024March-4.8

Less positive about expected output

Manufacturers were less positive about expected output for the next three months, and were also more negative about their current stocks of finished products. They were slightly less negative about order positions however.

One component indicator was positive: manufacturers anticipating an increase in output over the next three months outnumbered those expecting a decrease.

Two component indicators were negative. More manufacturers see their order position as weak rather than strong for the time of year, and more manufacturers describe their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 March (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)February (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-4.8-4.2
Expected output3.54.6
Assessment of stocks of finished products-6.7-5.3
Assessment of order-book levels-11.4-11.9

Producer confidence most positive in the paper and printing industry

Confidence was negative in most manufacturing sectors in March. Producer confidence in the paper and printing industry was the highest, and it was lowest in the timber and building materials industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 March (average of the component questions)February (average of the component questions)
Paper and printing2.31.6
Petroleum and chemicals-4-1.7
Food, beverages, tobacco-4.2-6.5
Electrotechnical products and machinery-5.1-2.1
Metal-7.3-5.5
Textiles, clothes, leather-7.4-8.5
Transport equipment-11.7-7
Timber and building materials-15.1-20.2

Manufacturing output down by 5.5 percent in January

In January, the calendar adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 5.5 percent lower than in January 2023. Output also contracted year-on-year in the preceding nine months of 2023. After adjustments for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output fell by 4.7 percent in January relative to December.

As of January 2024, a number of changes have been made to producer confidence. Producer confidence and the component indicators are no longer corrected for insufficient objective assessment (bias) by the producer. This causes a level shift (decrease) for the entire series. In addition, the figures have been recalculated from January 2012 using a different weighting method. The seasonal adjustment method has also been improved.