Economic picture deteriorates again

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool for monitoring the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Consumers less negative, producers more negative

In March 2024, Dutch consumers were less negative than they were in the previous month. However, confidence was still far below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence was also more negative than in February, remaining below the 20-year average.

Household consumption up, exports and investments down

Households spent 0.3 percent more in January year on year (adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern). They spent mainly more on goods.

In January 2024, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was down by 3.1 percent year on year. Export volumes of natural gas, petroleum products, machinery, transport equipment and food, beverages and tobacco were lower, in particular.

In January 2024, the investment volume for tangible fixed assets was down by 3.4 percent year on year. This is mainly due to lower investment in buildings and aircraft.

Manufacturing output down by 5.5 percent in January

In January 2024, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 5.5 percent lower than it was in January 2023. Year-on-year output also contracted in the preceding nine months of 2023. After adjustments for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output fell by 4.7 percent in January relative to December.

Fewer bankruptcies in February

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 26 fewer bankruptcies in February than in January. This is a decrease of 7 percent. However, there has been an upward trend in the number of bankruptcies for nearly two years.

House prices up by over 4 percent in February

In February 2024, prices of existing owner-occupied dwellings were an average of 4.3 percent higher than one year previously. The monthly rise for February was 1.0 percent relative to January.

More hours worked, lower number of unemployed and fewer vacancies

In Q4 2023, the number of hours worked rose by 0.1 percent on the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects. Employees and self-employed people worked a total of over 3.6 billion hours in Q4 2023.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, the number of vacancies continues to fall. At the end of Q4, there were 410 thousand job vacancies, 5 thousand fewer than at the end of Q3.

Over the past three months, the number of unemployed has continued to rise by an average of 7 thousand per month. As a result, 379 thousand people were unemployed in February, which is the highest number in nearly one and a half years.

In Q4 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.9 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q4 2023

According to the second quarterly estimate based on the data currently available, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2023 relative to the previous quarter. Following three consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, the growth in Q4 can mainly be attributed to household consumption.