Public revenue 3 bn euros higher than expenditure after three quarters

© Hollandse Hoogte
The Dutch central government achieved a surplus of 3 billion euros over the first three quarters of this year. This is 2 billion more than one year previously. Over the past three quarters, public debt decreased by nearly 14 billion euros, to 467 billion euros or 45.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). At the end of 2022, the debt still stood at 50.1 percent of GDP. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this on the basis of new figures on public finances.

General government balance
JaarGovernment balance Q1-Q3 (bn euros)Government balance Q4 (bn euros)
2006-3.23.0
2007-6.14.7
2008-2.43.2
2009-25.3-7.3
2010-29.9-4.2
2011-22.5-6.3
2012-21.4-4.2
2013-14.9-4.6
2014-13.0-2.2
2015-11.7-1.7
2016-1.22.1
20176.83.3
201812.3-0.7
201912.32.3
2020-19.3-10.3
2021-15.8-3.6
2022*0.7-1.6
2023*2.6
* Provisional figures

Steady rise in revenue and expenditure

Public revenue, mainly taxes and social security contributions, rose steadily in the past fews quarters. Revenue over the first three quarters of this year was 26 billion euros higher than one year previously. This is an increase of nearly 9 percent. Government expenditure also rose strongly, but at 24 billion euros, slightly less than revenue. With revenues rising by 2 billion euros more than expenditure, the general government balance ended up with a slightly higher surplus over the first three quarters than last year.

Public revenue and expenditure, annualised1)
YearQuarterRevenue (billion euro)Expenditure (billion euro)
2008Quarter 1269.1269.0
2008Quarter 2274.0273.3
2008Quarter 3278.8276.5
2008Quarter 4282.1281.3
2009Quarter 1280.1285.7
2009Quarter 2275.8288.1
2009Quarter 3272.6294.7
2009Quarter 4266.7299.3
2010Quarter 1266.4301.0
2010Quarter 2270.2306.2
2010Quarter 3269.9307.2
2010Quarter 4273.7307.9
2011Quarter 1277.7307.7
2011Quarter 2276.9307.4
2011Quarter 3280.7307.5
2011Quarter 4277.7306.6
2012Quarter 1278.2306.2
2012Quarter 2280.4306.5
2012Quarter 3279.0306.7
2012Quarter 4281.4307.0
2013Quarter 1284.6308.5
2013Quarter 2287.1308.7
2013Quarter 3290.5309.7
2013Quarter 4289.8309.4
2014Quarter 1289.2309.3
2014Quarter 2290.6310.3
2014Quarter 3291.6309.2
2014Quarter 4294.4309.5
2015Quarter 1296.4310.2
2015Quarter 2295.9309.9
2015Quarter 3296.0309.9
2015Quarter 4296.1309.5
2016Quarter 1297.7309.4
2016Quarter 2303.0309.8
2016Quarter 3307.9310.8
2016Quarter 4310.1309.2
2017Quarter 1315.1308.9
2017Quarter 2316.7309.6
2017Quarter 3319.4310.4
2017Quarter 4323.5313.4
2018Quarter 1329.0316.1
2018Quarter 2333.3318.9
2018Quarter 3337.5321.9
2018Quarter 4338.9327.2
2019Quarter 1345.1332.0
2019Quarter 2348.9335.5
2019Quarter 3351.8340.2
2019Quarter 4357.1342.5
2020Quarter 1357.0345.4
2020Quarter 2350.2359.2
2020Quarter 3349.7366.6
2020Quarter 4351.4381.0
2021Quarter 1351.9392.3
2021Quarter 2363.7392.5
2021Quarter 3370.5396.6
2021Quarter 4380.7400.2
2022*Quarter 1386.5399.3
2022*Quarter 2398.7400.7
2022*Quarter 3405.8408.8
2022*Quarter 4416.0416.9
2023*Quarter 1424.4425.2
2023*Quarter 2434.2435.9
2023*Quarter 3442.1441.1
1) measured as the sum of four quarters

For all of 2023, the Autumn Memorandum 2023 of the Ministry of Finance assumes a deficit of 18.3 billion euros or 1.8 percent of GDP. To arrive at a this deficit, the government would have to spend 21 billion euros more in the last quarter of this year than it receives in revenue. So far, the largest deficit over a fourth quarter was achieved in 2020 when the government spent 10 billion euros more than it received in the final quarter. Then, the government's COVID-19 measures had a significant upward effect on government expenditure.

Gross debt ratio falling further

Over the past three quarters, public debt <general government balance and debt> decreased by nearly 14 billion to 467 billion euros. This brought the gross debt ratio to 45.9 percent, the lowest level in 15 years. Two thirds of the decline in debt-to-GDP ratio in 2023 was driven by GDP growth. The decline in euro-denominated debt, at just over 1 percentage point, contributed one-third of the decline in the gross debt ratio.

In the latest Autumn Memorandum, the Ministry of Finance estimated that the debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 47.6 percent by the end of this year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the realised position at the end of September this year.

Debt-to-GDP ratio
YearQuarterEMU criterion (% of GDP)Debt-to-GDP ratio (% of GDP)
2008Quarter 16043.9
2008Quarter 26043.8
2008Quarter 36044.1
2008Quarter 46054.7
2009Quarter 16057.5
2009Quarter 26056.6
2009Quarter 36057.2
2009Quarter 46056.8
2010Quarter 16057.6
2010Quarter 26059.2
2010Quarter 36059.0
2010Quarter 46059.3
2011Quarter 16059.4
2011Quarter 26060.4
2011Quarter 36061.1
2011Quarter 46061.7
2012Quarter 16062.5
2012Quarter 26064.0
2012Quarter 36064.9
2012Quarter 46066.2
2013Quarter 16066.6
2013Quarter 26068.3
2013Quarter 36067.8
2013Quarter 46067.7
2014Quarter 16067.1
2014Quarter 26068.6
2014Quarter 36068.1
2014Quarter 46067.9
2015Quarter 16068.9
2015Quarter 26066.7
2015Quarter 36065.8
2015Quarter 46064.7
2016Quarter 16064.3
2016Quarter 26063.3
2016Quarter 36061.7
2016Quarter 46061.9
2017Quarter 16059.7
2017Quarter 26059.0
2017Quarter 36057.2
2017Quarter 46057.0
2018Quarter 16055.2
2018Quarter 26054.1
2018Quarter 36053.0
2018Quarter 46052.4
2019Quarter 16050.9
2019Quarter 26050.9
2019Quarter 36049.2
2019Quarter 46048.6
2020Quarter 16049.4
2020Quarter 26055.2
2020Quarter 36055.3
2020Quarter 46054.7
2021Quarter 16055.1
2021Quarter 26054.1
2021Quarter 36052.2
2021Quarter 46051.7
2022*Quarter 16050.0
2022*Quarter 26050.0
2022*Quarter 36048.2
2022*Quarter 46050.1
2023*Quarter 16048.3
2023*Quarter 26046.9
2023*Quarter 36045.9
* Provisional figures

The government balance and the debt-to-GDP ratio are important indicators for the state of public finances in a country. The European convergence criteria allow a maximum deficit of 3 percent of GDP in one year, and a maximum debt level of 60 percent of GDP as at the end of that year. However, due to the exceptional circumstances caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the European Commission temporarily suspended European budgetary convergence rules.

Sources