Economic contraction 0.3 percent in Q3 2023

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023. In the first estimate, which was published on 14 November, contraction amounted to 0.2 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the quarter end date.

The economic contraction was slightly larger than in the first estimate. The household consumption in particular has been adjusted downwards. Investments have been adjusted downwards as well. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets, a decline in inventory changes and a decrease in household consumption.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the quarter end date. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the quarter end, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy is collected, e.g. data on the construction, business services, accommodation and food services, government care and the financial sectors. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage points over the past five years (2018-2022), with the two extremes -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted figures of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in the previous three quarters.

Growth relative to Q3 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.8 percent in Q3 2023. In the first estimate, the decline was 0.6 percent. The downward adjustment is caused by new figures on the manufacturing, trade and travel and temporary employment sectors.

The overall picture has not changed. The contraction was mainly related to lower exports of goods and services, natural gas inventory and household consumption.

28 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employed and self-employed jobs increased by 28 thousand in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023. The first estimate resulted in an increase of 31 thousand jobs.

Furthermore, the second estimate for Q3 2023 showed a year-on-year increase of 142 thousand employed and self-employed jobs, versus 147 thousand according to the first estimate.

Employment figures have been updated based on additional source data.

Sources

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