Flash estimate: inflation 1.6% in November, excluding energy at 4.1%

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According to the flash estimate of inflation by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the inflation rate stands at 1.6 percent in November. The estimate was conducted on the basis of still incomplete source data. In October, it was -0.4 percent. Inflation is measured monthly as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) relative to the same month of the previous year.

The higher inflation rate does not mean that prices increased in November 2023 relative to October 2023. The CPI also presents the price development compared to the previous month; according to the flash estimate, consumer prices were 1.1 percent lower in November than they were in October.

The price development of energy (gas, electricity and district heating) has long had a major impact on the course of inflation. The inflation rate excluding energy was 4.1 percent according to the flash estimate. This was 5.1 percent in October. In the first half of 2023, inflation excluding energy and motor fuels was above the current level, peaking at 8.1 percent in February and March.

The regular consumer price index (CPI) figures will be published on 12 December.

Inflation
yearmonthInflation (year-on-year % change of the CPI)Inflation excluding energy and motor fuels (year-on-year % change of the CPI)
2018January1.51.2
2018February1.21
2018March10.8
2018April1.10.8
2018May1.71.2
2018June1.71.1
2018July2.11.4
2018August2.11.4
2018September1.91.2
2018October2.11.5
2018November21.6
2018December21.6
2019January2.21.7
2019February2.62
2019March2.82.2
2019April2.92.2
2019May2.41.8
2019June2.72.2
2019July2.52.3
2019August2.82.7
2019September2.62.5
2019October2.72.6
2019November2.62.3
2019December2.72.3
2020January1.82.1
2020February1.62
2020March1.42.2
2020April1.22.3
2020May1.22.4
2020June1.62.6
2020July1.72.6
2020August0.71.5
2020September1.11.9
2020October1.22.1
2020November0.81.7
2020December11.8
2021January1.62.1
2021February1.82
2021March1.91.7
2021April1.91.3
2021May2.11.5
2021June21.4
2021July1.40.5
2021August2.41.5
2021September2.71.5
2021October3.41.6
2021November5.22.3
2021December5.72.4
2022January6.42.7
2022February6.22.9
2022March9.73.1
2022April9.64.1
2022May8.84.4
2022June8.64.7
2022July10.35.7
2022August126
2022September14.56.5
2022October14.36.9
2022November9.96.8
2022December9.67.5
2023January7.67.7
2023February88.1
2023March4.48.1
2023April5.27.8
2023May6.17.9
2023June5.77.2
2023July4.66.8
2023August36.4
2023September0.25.5
2023October-0.45.1
2023November1.64.1

Short-term price trends

The CPI provides insight into monthly price developments, not only relative to one year previously (the CPI inflation rate), but also relative to the previous month. Relative to October 2023, in November consumer prices fell by 1.1 percent, according to the flash estimate.

Consumer price index (CPI)2015=100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135Created with Highcharts 7.0.32015=100Consumer price index (CPI)20232022JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec100105110115120125130135

A side note regarding comparisons between months in the same year is that the seasonal influence must be taken into account. For example, airline tickets are more expensive in holiday months than outside the holiday season. Prices go up temporarily, but this is not a structural price increase. Due to these seasonal influences, month-on-month changes are often more volatile than year-on-year changes.

Major influence of energy price developments on inflation

The price development of energy (gas, electricity and district heating) has had a considerable influence on the inflation rate for some time, mainly due to last year’s price increases. Energy prices in the CPI soared in the latter half of 2022, peaking in October 2022. This contributed to the very high inflation rate in that period. Energy prices in the CPI are currently much lower than in 2022. Since inflation is measured as price developments relative to the same month one year previously, the inflation rate is now lower.

As of June 2023, CBS uses a new method to measure and incorporate energy prices in the CPI. On 30 June, CBS published a background article explaining in more detail what the new method means for the CPI, the inflation rate and the use of the CPI for indexation purposes.

Price developments in product groups

In addition to the inflation rate, CBS also publishes price developments for a number of product groups as part of its flash estimate. These product groups are aggregations of expenditure categories on a particular theme, e.g. all services. The price developments in all categories of the CPI will be published on 12 December.

CPI; annual rate of change of product groups
 November 2023 (%)October 2023 (%)
All items1.6-0.4
Non-energy industrial goods2.63.4
Energy including motor fuels-25.3-40.2
Food, beverages and tobacco7.38.7
Services4.04.7

HICP flash estimate

As of 1996, CBS publishes two different rates of inflation, with one based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and one on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). According to the HICP, the flash estimate stood at 1.4 percent in November. In October, it was -1.0 percent.

In order to facilitate comparison between countries, EU member states calculate a consumer price index according to internationally agreed definitions and methods. Based on these harmonised indices (HICP) of all EU countries, Eurostat calculates the eurozone and the EU inflation rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) uses the HICP to formulate its monetary policies for the euro area. In addition, most countries produce their own national consumer price index.

For the Netherlands, the main difference between the CPI and the HICP is that, unlike the CPI, the HICP does not take into account the costs related to home ownership. In the CPI, these costs are calculated based on the development of home rental prices. However, this is not the only difference. The differences are further explained in another publication.

Sources

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