Economic outlook deteriorates further in October

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Consumer and producer confidence slightly less negative

In October 2023, Dutch consumers were slightly less negative than they were in the previous month. Consumer confidence was positioned far below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producers were also slightly less negative than in September. Producer confidence was also below the 20-year average.

Household consumption, investments and exports up

In August, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) rose by 0.6 percent year on year. The growth followed a few months of contraction. The increase in August was mainly seen in exports of machinery, appliances and transport equipment.

Adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern, households spent 0.5 percent more in August 2023 year on year. They bought more services but fewer goods again.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 6.3 percent year on year. This was mainly due to higher investments in transport equipment (passenger cars, lorries and aircraft), buildings and infrastructure.

Manufacturing output 8 percent down in August

In August 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 8.0 percent lower than in August 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months. Relative to July, output fell by 0.7 percent in August.

More bankruptcies in September

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 25 more bankruptcies in September 2023 than in the previous month; an increase of 9 percent. The number of bankruptcies has shown an upward trend for over twelve months.

House prices 3.5 percent lower in September

In September 2023, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 3.5 percent lower than in September 2022. Again, the year-on-year price decrease was smaller than in the previous month. Compared to August 2023, prices rose by 0.6 percent.

Fewer hours worked and vacancies, more unemployed

In Q2 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 0.2 percent lower than in the previous quarter. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q2 2023 amounted to over 3.6 billion.

At the end of Q2 there were 427 thousand unfilled vacancies, 10 thousand fewer than at the end of Q1 2023. The number of vacancies started to decrease as of Q3 2022 after eight consecutive quarters of growth (mid-2020 to mid-2022).

In September, 371 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. This is 3.7 percent of the labour force. From July through September, unemployment rose by an average of 6 thousand per month.

In Q2 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies fell by 0.3 percent relative to the previous quarter. 

Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q2 2023

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by CBS, in Q2 2023 the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent relative to the previous quarter. In Q1 2023, GDP fell by 0.4 percent. The contraction in Q2 is mainly due to a decrease in the trade balance and in household consumption.