Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q2 2023

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent in Q2 2023 relative to Q1 2023. In the first estimate, which was published on 16 August, contraction amounted to 0.3 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The contraction of the economy was slightly smaller than in the first estimate. The trade balance (exports minus imports) in particular has been adjusted upwards. However, investments have been adjusted downwards. The overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the second quarter can mainly be attributed to a decline in the trade balance and household consumption.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage points over the past five years (2018-2022), with the two extremes -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in the previous quarters.

Growth relative to Q2 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.2 percent in Q2 2023. In the first estimate, the decrease amounted to 0.3 percent. The upward adjustment is caused by new figures on manufacturing and business services.

The overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the second quarter of 2023 is mainly because the trade balance was smaller than a year earlier.

Nine thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 9 thousand in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023. The first estimate suggested an increase of 7 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q2 2023 further suggests a year-on-year increase of 185 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 182 thousand according to the first estimate.
Employment figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Sources

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