Producer confidence up slightly again
Producer confidence has exceeded the long-term average of 1.2 for years. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.
| year | month | balance (average of the component questions) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | February | 6.3 |
| 2019 | March | 6.1 |
| 2019 | April | 6.7 |
| 2019 | May | 4.7 |
| 2019 | Juni | 3.3 |
| 2019 | Juli | 3.9 |
| 2019 | August | 3.9 |
| 2019 | September | 3.3 |
| 2019 | October | 3.6 |
| 2019 | November | 2.8 |
| 2019 | December | 2.9 |
| 2020 | January | 2.5 |
| 2020 | February | 3.7 |
| 2020 | March | 0.2 |
| 2020 | April | -28.7 |
| 2020 | May | -25.1 |
| 2020 | June | -15.1 |
| 2020 | July | -8.7 |
| 2020 | August | -5.4 |
| 2020 | September | -4.8 |
| 2020 | October | -5.6 |
| 2020 | November | -3.8 |
| 2020 | December | -0.4 |
| 2021 | January | 0.6 |
| 2021 | February | 0.1 |
| 2021 | March | 3.4 |
| 2021 | April | 6.5 |
| 2021 | May | 8.8 |
| 2021 | June | 11.5 |
| 2021 | July | 12.3 |
| 2021 | August | 9.6 |
| 2021 | September | 11.1 |
| 2021 | October | 12.3 |
| 2021 | November | 12.7 |
| 2021 | December | 10.2 |
| 2022 | January | 9 |
| 2022 | February | 8.5 |
| 2022 | March | 8.7 |
| 2022 | April | 10.8 |
| 2022 | May | 9.9 |
| 2022 | June | 8.1 |
| 2022 | July | 8.4 |
| 2022 | August | 4.6 |
| 2022 | September | 2.6 |
| 2022 | October | 2.5 |
| 2022 | November | 3 |
| 2022 | December | 3.3 |
| 2023 | January | 3.6 |
Opinion about order positions has improved
Manufacturers are somewhat more positive about their order positions and less negative about their current stocks. They are almost as positive about future output as they were a month earlier.
Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.
However, there was one negative component: more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.
Confidence up in half of industries
In January, producer confidence is higher than in the previous month in half of the manufacturing industries. Just as in the previous months, confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industries.
| January 2023 (average of the component questions) | December 2022 (average of the component questions) | |
|---|---|---|
| Electrotechnical products and machinery | 16.1 | 18 |
| Transport equipment | 14.1 | 16 |
| Timber and building materials | 5.8 | -0.4 |
| Textiles, clothes, leather | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| Metal | 4.5 | 3 |
| Food, beverages, tobacco | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| Paper and printing | -3.1 | -7.7 |
| Petroleum | -6 | -4.4 |
Manufacturing output down by a fraction in November
In November 2022, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.2 percent lower than in November 2021. It was the first year-on-year contraction since March 2021. After seasonal adjustments, a 2.0-percent decline is seen in manufacturing output from October to November.
Producer confidence also improving in Germany
Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In January, German entrepreneurs again showed improved confidence, according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute. They were more positive about their current situation and less pessimistic about the future situation. The average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was up by 0.5 percent year on year in November, as reported by Destatis.
Sources
Related items
- Dossier - Business cycle