Forecast Caribbean Netherlands: 15% more inhabitants by 2030

As at 1 January 2022, the Caribbean Netherlands had 27.7 thousand residents, most of them living on Bonaire. Population growth is also expected to be strongest on Bonaire, as it has been since 2011. According to current projections, by 2030 the island will have 16 percent more residents than in 2022. An increase of 10 percent is projected for St Eustatius and 9 percent for Saba.

More residents born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands in the future

In the period 2018-2022, 55 percent of the Caribbean Netherlands’ residents were born there or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten (together the six islands comprise the Dutch Caribbean). The share is projected to be 53 percent in 2030. Around 14 percent of residents were born in the European Netherlands and 31 percent elsewhere in 2018-2022; this is expected to become 13 and 34 percent respectively in 2030.

The largest decrease in the proportion of residents born in the Dutch Caribbean is expected on Bonaire, against a small increase on St Eustatius. Over 15 percent of Bonaire's population were born in the European Netherlands in 2018-2022, more than on St Eustatius and Saba. This is also expected to be the case in the future. Saba will then have a larger share of residents from outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands; Bonaire the smallest share.

The Caribbean Netherlands: ageing population

At the start of 2022, 14 percent of people living in the Caribbean Netherlands were 65 years or older. This was still 9 percent in 2011. The proportion of elderly people is expected to increase to 19 percent by 2030.

In 2022, Saba was the most rapidly ageing island with 16 percent of its population aged 65 or older. St Eustatius’ population was ageing the least (13 percent). By 2030, Bonaire is expected to be have aged the most (19 percent of the population aged 65 or over) and St Eustatius again the least (16 percent).

Most likely development and uncertainties

In order to accurately forecast the future development of the Caribbean Netherlands’ population, CBS uses a simulation model. Serving as the basis for projections are assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration. In particular foreign migration, the main component of population development on the three islands, tends to develop erratically. Actual developments are therefore likely to differ from the forecast and the forecast figures are subject to uncertainties.

The Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers 2022

In conjunction with this news release, a new edition of The Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers is being published. It contains the most important economic and social figures with respect to the Caribbean Netherlands. Dozens of topics, photographs and infographics offer readers a picture of the current situation on the islands. The publication is available both online as a longread and printed in limited edition.