Business confidence down as of Q3

Store selling vegetables
© Nikki van Toorn
Entrepreneurial confidence showed a decline at the start of the third quarter. The decline is seen in most industries. Nevertheless, business confidence remained positive in all industries. More than half of the entrepreneurs say they can pass on cost increases to their customers only to a small extent or not at all. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the Economic Institute for Construction and Housing (EIB), the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the Netherlands Business Survey (COEN).

The data for this survey were collected in early July.

At the start of Q3 2022, entrepreneurial confidence fell to 8.2. In the previous quarter, the mood indicator was still rising after most of the COVID-19 measures were abolished in February 2022. These measurs had had an impact on the highly fluctuating business confidence since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Business confidence
JaarKwartaalBusiness confidence
2008Q4-7.0
2009Q1-24.3
2009Q2-29.7
2009Q3-23.5
2009Q4-13.5
2010Q1-7.1
2010Q20.5
2010Q33.4
2010Q46.1
2011Q17.2
2011Q210.1
2011Q33.2
2011Q4-4.4
2012Q1-6.3
2012Q2-6.8
2012Q3-8.6
2012Q4-9.2
2013Q1-10.7
2013Q2-11.7
2013Q3-8.7
2013Q4-2.7
2014Q11.6
2014Q24.7
2014Q32.9
2014Q44.9
2015Q15.6
2015Q25.4
2015Q38.7
2015Q47.4
2016Q19.3
2016Q28.8
2016Q37.9
2016Q49.2
2017Q114.7
2017Q215.5
2017Q315.9
2017Q413.4
2018Q118.1
2018Q214.2
2018Q315.0
2018Q413.4
2019Q110.6
2019Q212.0
2019Q310.6
2019Q46.6
2020Q16.4
2020Q2-37.2
2020Q3-19.3
2020Q4-4.0
2021Q1-6.0
2021Q22.3
2021Q318.4
2021Q419.9
2022Q16.4
2022Q216.8
2022Q38.2
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

Business confidence down in most industries

Business confidence fell in nine of the eleven industries, but was positive across the board. The strongest decline was seen in accommodation and food services. Entrepreneurs in this sector saw their turnover decrease while being less positive about the economic climate in the previous three months. The mood also declined significantly in wholesale trade, partly because wholesalers are having less positive expectations about turnover in the next three months. Business confidence rose within the construction sector, reaching the highest levels across the private sector. Within the mining and quarrying sector, the mood indicator also increased and sentiment changed from slightly negative to slightly positive.

Business confidence by sector
BedrijfstakQ3 2022Q2 2022
Non-financial private sector8.216.8
Construction18.612.5
Accommodation and food services15.540.9
Information and communication15.517.2
Transportation and storage8.713.1
Business services8.612.9
Manufacturing8.410.8
Wholesale and commission trade7.718.4
Car trade and repair3.44.5
Retail trade (excl. cars)1.61.8
Mining and quarrying1.5-2.0
Real estate activities0.86.2
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

6 out of 10 cannot pass on cost increases or only to a minor extent

Businesses are facing cost increases in 2022 due to price increases in energy and raw materials, among other things. Half of the entrepreneurs indicate that they can pass on these cost increases to a small extent in their prices or rates to their customers. Almost 9 percent cannot pass on cost increases at all. On the other hand, more than one third can pass on these cost increases to a large extent and more than 3 percent completely. In real estate and culture, sports and recreation, 80 percent of entrepreneurs say that they are not able to pass on some or all of the cost increases to their customers. Only in the mining and quarrying industry can more than half of the entrepreneurs pass on most or all of the cost increases.

Ability to pass on cost increases
BedrijfstakEntirely unable (% of enterprises)Able to some extent (% of enterprises)Able to a large extent (% of enterprises)Entirely able (% of enterprises)Not applicable, no cost increases (% of enterprises)
Non-financial private sector8.649.734.73.43.5
Real estate activities29.751.99.50.68.3
Culture, sports and recreation25.254.510.60.88.9
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries22.849.019.62.95.7
Specialised business services13.446.630.04.75.3
Rental and leasing activities13.249.632.52.12.6
Information and communication11.354.927.02.24.5
Other service activities7.764.218.82.46.9
Transportation and storage7.448.736.76.20.9
Accommodation and food services7.262.726.01.72.4
Trade7.142.040.74.06.2
Mining and quarrying6.318.457.51.915.9
Construction5.761.731.21.40.0
Manufacturing3.445.445.04.32.0
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

63 percent positive operating result in first half year

In the first half of 2022, 63 percent of entrepreneurs closed with a profit. Nine percent made a loss and 15 percent reported no significant profit or loss. Entrepreneurs in culture, sports and recreation and in accommodation and food services were the least positive about their business results. In culture, sport and recreation, 36 percent of entrepreneurs were profitable and 20 percent suffered losses. The construction sector had the highest proportion of businesses in the black, followed by business services and mining and quarrying.

Operating result first half year 2022
 Positive (% of enterprises)No significant profit or loss (% of enterprises)Negative (% of enterprises)Do not know (% of enterprises)
Non-financial private sector63.214.79.312.7
Construction70.617.76.75.0
Specialised business services70.213.16.610.1
Mining and quarrying70.114.87.97.2
Manufacturing66.012.310.311.4
Information and communication63.912.49.014.7
Transportation and storage 63.713.87.714.8
Rental and leasing activities63.516.111.68.8
Real estate activities62.116.91.319.7
Trade61.311.89.017.8
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries51.623.912.911.6
Other service activities48.629.48.014.0
Accommodation and food services47.222.116.514.2
Culture, sports and recreation35.725.719.718.9
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW

Pessimism about the economic climate

At the beginning of Q3 2022, there were more entrepreneurs who foresaw a deterioration of the economic climate in the next three months than those who foresaw an improvement; on balance, 12 percent were pessimistic.

In almost all industries, entrepreneurs were predominantly pessimistic about the expected economic climate in the next three months. Only the culture sector expected an improvement on balance. Expectations about the economic climate were also highest in this sector one quarter previously. The construction industry was the most pessimistic in Q3, with 6 percent of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in the economic climate and 41 percent expecting a deterioration.

Economic sentiment by sector
Bedrijfstakken/branchesQ3 2022 (% balance of enterprises expecting improvement vs. deterioration)Q2 2022 (% balance of enterprises expecting improvement vs. deterioration)
Non-financial private sector-12.3-6.7
Culture, sports and recreation2.329.8
Business services-1.73.4
Transportation and storage-2.3-0.4
Mining and quarrying-2.4-1.6
Accommodation and food services-3.826.6
Information and communication-4.43.4
Other service activities-10.12.9
Car trade and repair-10.5-21.7
Manufacturing-10.6-10.2
Wholesale and commission trade-13.40.3
Retail trade (excl. cars)-15.4-5.6
Real estate activities-15.9-6.8
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries-33.5-20.8
Construction-34.8-45.9
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW