Business confidence down as of Q3
The data for this survey were collected in early July.
At the start of Q3 2022, entrepreneurial confidence fell to 8.2. In the previous quarter, the mood indicator was still rising after most of the COVID-19 measures were abolished in February 2022. These measurs had had an impact on the highly fluctuating business confidence since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jaar | Kwartaal | Business confidence |
---|---|---|
2008 | Q4 | -7.0 |
2009 | Q1 | -24.3 |
2009 | Q2 | -29.7 |
2009 | Q3 | -23.5 |
2009 | Q4 | -13.5 |
2010 | Q1 | -7.1 |
2010 | Q2 | 0.5 |
2010 | Q3 | 3.4 |
2010 | Q4 | 6.1 |
2011 | Q1 | 7.2 |
2011 | Q2 | 10.1 |
2011 | Q3 | 3.2 |
2011 | Q4 | -4.4 |
2012 | Q1 | -6.3 |
2012 | Q2 | -6.8 |
2012 | Q3 | -8.6 |
2012 | Q4 | -9.2 |
2013 | Q1 | -10.7 |
2013 | Q2 | -11.7 |
2013 | Q3 | -8.7 |
2013 | Q4 | -2.7 |
2014 | Q1 | 1.6 |
2014 | Q2 | 4.7 |
2014 | Q3 | 2.9 |
2014 | Q4 | 4.9 |
2015 | Q1 | 5.6 |
2015 | Q2 | 5.4 |
2015 | Q3 | 8.7 |
2015 | Q4 | 7.4 |
2016 | Q1 | 9.3 |
2016 | Q2 | 8.8 |
2016 | Q3 | 7.9 |
2016 | Q4 | 9.2 |
2017 | Q1 | 14.7 |
2017 | Q2 | 15.5 |
2017 | Q3 | 15.9 |
2017 | Q4 | 13.4 |
2018 | Q1 | 18.1 |
2018 | Q2 | 14.2 |
2018 | Q3 | 15.0 |
2018 | Q4 | 13.4 |
2019 | Q1 | 10.6 |
2019 | Q2 | 12.0 |
2019 | Q3 | 10.6 |
2019 | Q4 | 6.6 |
2020 | Q1 | 6.4 |
2020 | Q2 | -37.2 |
2020 | Q3 | -19.3 |
2020 | Q4 | -4.0 |
2021 | Q1 | -6.0 |
2021 | Q2 | 2.3 |
2021 | Q3 | 18.4 |
2021 | Q4 | 19.9 |
2022 | Q1 | 6.4 |
2022 | Q2 | 16.8 |
2022 | Q3 | 8.2 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Business confidence down in most industries
Business confidence fell in nine of the eleven industries, but was positive across the board. The strongest decline was seen in accommodation and food services. Entrepreneurs in this sector saw their turnover decrease while being less positive about the economic climate in the previous three months. The mood also declined significantly in wholesale trade, partly because wholesalers are having less positive expectations about turnover in the next three months. Business confidence rose within the construction sector, reaching the highest levels across the private sector. Within the mining and quarrying sector, the mood indicator also increased and sentiment changed from slightly negative to slightly positive.
Bedrijfstak | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 |
---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | 8.2 | 16.8 |
Construction | 18.6 | 12.5 |
Accommodation and food services | 15.5 | 40.9 |
Information and communication | 15.5 | 17.2 |
Transportation and storage | 8.7 | 13.1 |
Business services | 8.6 | 12.9 |
Manufacturing | 8.4 | 10.8 |
Wholesale and commission trade | 7.7 | 18.4 |
Car trade and repair | 3.4 | 4.5 |
Retail trade (excl. cars) | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Mining and quarrying | 1.5 | -2.0 |
Real estate activities | 0.8 | 6.2 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
6 out of 10 cannot pass on cost increases or only to a minor extent
Businesses are facing cost increases in 2022 due to price increases in energy and raw materials, among other things. Half of the entrepreneurs indicate that they can pass on these cost increases to a small extent in their prices or rates to their customers. Almost 9 percent cannot pass on cost increases at all. On the other hand, more than one third can pass on these cost increases to a large extent and more than 3 percent completely. In real estate and culture, sports and recreation, 80 percent of entrepreneurs say that they are not able to pass on some or all of the cost increases to their customers. Only in the mining and quarrying industry can more than half of the entrepreneurs pass on most or all of the cost increases.
Bedrijfstak | Entirely unable (% of enterprises) | Able to some extent (% of enterprises) | Able to a large extent (% of enterprises) | Entirely able (% of enterprises) | Not applicable, no cost increases (% of enterprises) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | 8.6 | 49.7 | 34.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
Real estate activities | 29.7 | 51.9 | 9.5 | 0.6 | 8.3 |
Culture, sports and recreation | 25.2 | 54.5 | 10.6 | 0.8 | 8.9 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 22.8 | 49.0 | 19.6 | 2.9 | 5.7 |
Specialised business services | 13.4 | 46.6 | 30.0 | 4.7 | 5.3 |
Rental and leasing activities | 13.2 | 49.6 | 32.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
Information and communication | 11.3 | 54.9 | 27.0 | 2.2 | 4.5 |
Other service activities | 7.7 | 64.2 | 18.8 | 2.4 | 6.9 |
Transportation and storage | 7.4 | 48.7 | 36.7 | 6.2 | 0.9 |
Accommodation and food services | 7.2 | 62.7 | 26.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
Trade | 7.1 | 42.0 | 40.7 | 4.0 | 6.2 |
Mining and quarrying | 6.3 | 18.4 | 57.5 | 1.9 | 15.9 |
Construction | 5.7 | 61.7 | 31.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Manufacturing | 3.4 | 45.4 | 45.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
63 percent positive operating result in first half year
In the first half of 2022, 63 percent of entrepreneurs closed with a profit. Nine percent made a loss and 15 percent reported no significant profit or loss. Entrepreneurs in culture, sports and recreation and in accommodation and food services were the least positive about their business results. In culture, sport and recreation, 36 percent of entrepreneurs were profitable and 20 percent suffered losses. The construction sector had the highest proportion of businesses in the black, followed by business services and mining and quarrying.
Positive (% of enterprises) | No significant profit or loss (% of enterprises) | Negative (% of enterprises) | Do not know (% of enterprises) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | 63.2 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 12.7 |
Construction | 70.6 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 5.0 |
Specialised business services | 70.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 |
Mining and quarrying | 70.1 | 14.8 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
Manufacturing | 66.0 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 11.4 |
Information and communication | 63.9 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 14.7 |
Transportation and storage | 63.7 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 14.8 |
Rental and leasing activities | 63.5 | 16.1 | 11.6 | 8.8 |
Real estate activities | 62.1 | 16.9 | 1.3 | 19.7 |
Trade | 61.3 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 17.8 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 51.6 | 23.9 | 12.9 | 11.6 |
Other service activities | 48.6 | 29.4 | 8.0 | 14.0 |
Accommodation and food services | 47.2 | 22.1 | 16.5 | 14.2 |
Culture, sports and recreation | 35.7 | 25.7 | 19.7 | 18.9 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Pessimism about the economic climate
At the beginning of Q3 2022, there were more entrepreneurs who foresaw a deterioration of the economic climate in the next three months than those who foresaw an improvement; on balance, 12 percent were pessimistic.
In almost all industries, entrepreneurs were predominantly pessimistic about the expected economic climate in the next three months. Only the culture sector expected an improvement on balance. Expectations about the economic climate were also highest in this sector one quarter previously. The construction industry was the most pessimistic in Q3, with 6 percent of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in the economic climate and 41 percent expecting a deterioration.
Bedrijfstakken/branches | Q3 2022 (% balance of enterprises expecting improvement vs. deterioration) | Q2 2022 (% balance of enterprises expecting improvement vs. deterioration) |
---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | -12.3 | -6.7 |
Culture, sports and recreation | 2.3 | 29.8 |
Business services | -1.7 | 3.4 |
Transportation and storage | -2.3 | -0.4 |
Mining and quarrying | -2.4 | -1.6 |
Accommodation and food services | -3.8 | 26.6 |
Information and communication | -4.4 | 3.4 |
Other service activities | -10.1 | 2.9 |
Car trade and repair | -10.5 | -21.7 |
Manufacturing | -10.6 | -10.2 |
Wholesale and commission trade | -13.4 | 0.3 |
Retail trade (excl. cars) | -15.4 | -5.6 |
Real estate activities | -15.9 | -6.8 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | -33.5 | -20.8 |
Construction | -34.8 | -45.9 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Sources
- StatLine - Business confidence; sector/branches
- StatLine - Business survey Netherlands; quarterly, sector/branches
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