Mortality in week 14 higher than expected

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
© Hollandse Hoogte / Ton Toemen
In week 14 (5 to 11 April 2021 inclusive), the estimated number of deaths stood at 3,150. This is approximately 100 more than expected for this period and roughly the same number as in the previous week (3,144). Mortality among long-term care users was below the expected level for this week; among the rest of the population, there were more deaths than expected. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the provisional weekly mortality figures.

From week 39 of 2020 to week 6 of 2021, weekly mortality was higher than expected. In week 7, the number of deaths was more or less the same as the expected mortality for this period; it was lower than expected in the subsequent weeks. In week 13, the number of deaths was more or less the same again as expected, while estimated mortality for week 14 is slightly above the expected level. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) registered 112 COVID-19 deaths in week 14 (as at 13 April).

Weekly mortality, 2020*
   DeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95% interval)
20201310432772908 – 3645
20202336633112930 – 3692
20203315733442945 – 3742
20204304633923008 – 3776
20205316334073027 – 3788
20206319434012979 – 3823
20207319934082916 – 3901
20208295933872851 – 3922
20209309833522805 – 3898
202010310633152785 – 3845
202011321932532756 – 3751
202012361531742711 – 3637
202013445931042703 – 3505
202014508530242712 – 3337
202015498129572719 – 3195
202016430729152711 – 3120
202017390728692677 – 3060
202018337928412650 – 3032
202019298628212633 – 3009
202020277727942626 – 2962
202021277127702620 – 2920
202022272927532608 – 2898
202023268227352591 – 2880
202024269227372600 – 2875
202025269527252594 – 2855
202026266127172577 – 2857
202027263927232544 – 2902
202028261927192515 – 2923
202029252827202507 – 2934
202030267327072515 – 2900
202031266826872492 – 2882
202032264026822483 – 2881
202033320926692481 – 2857
202034285526632510 – 2815
202035273326672526 – 2807
202036269026762549 – 2804
202037273926982564 – 2832
202038272027292585 – 2873
202039289227522618 – 2886
202040299827862628 – 2943
202041302028072655 – 2960
202042322028392677 – 3001
202043344928622661 – 3063
202044367928892683 – 3095
202045358929022692 – 3111
202046357529322710 – 3155
202047332929722742 – 3202
202048340130122762 – 3263
202049351930372742 – 3332
202050360631002800 – 3399
202051389631662830 – 3501
202052384932222871 – 3573
202053408432662906 – 3625
20211414133092940 – 3677
20212384633432962 – 3724
20213385333762978 – 3775
20214371034253040 – 3809
20215364834403060 – 3821
20216354634343012 – 3856
20217351834412949 – 3934
20218320234202884 – 3955
20219309333842838 – 3931
202110323333472817 – 3877
202111301932852787 – 3782
202112303032052742 – 3668
202113314431342733 – 3535
202114316330542741 – 3366
20211529862748 – 3224
20211629442739 – 3148
20211728972705 – 3088
20211828692677 – 3060
20211928492660 – 3037
20212028212653 – 2989
202121
202122
202123
202124
202125
202126
202127
202128
202129
202130
202131
202132
202133
202134
202135
202136
202137
202138
202139
202140
202141
202142
202143
202144
202145
202146
202147
202148
202149
202150
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 14 in 2021 is an estimate.

Mortality among long-term care users below expected level

In week 14, the number of deaths among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) decreased slightly; since week 8, it has been below the expected level for this period. There were over 100 fewer deaths among long-term care recipients than expected. Mortality among the rest of the population has increased in the past two weeks and is now above the expected level. In the estimate for week 14, there is even excess mortality: the estimated number of deaths is higher than the expectation interval (the light green area in the figure).

There were around 1,000 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,150 deaths were recorded.

Weekly mortality, 2020*
   Long-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
20201121012521052 – 1451189420251780 – 2270
20202126512721076 – 1468210120391793 – 2285
20203113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
20204112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
20205109813101118 – 1503206520971853 – 2341
20206114213091099 – 1519205220921826 – 2358
20207115513091069 – 1549204420991796 – 2403
20208112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
20209119512761005 – 1546190320761756 – 2396
20201011641260989 – 1531194220561752 – 2359
20201112001229950 – 1507201920251741 – 2308
20201213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
20201316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
20201422121120915 – 1326287319041709 – 2100
20201524091091910 – 1273257218661709 – 2022
20201620661075912 – 1238224118401691 – 1990
20201717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
20201814291048900 – 1195195017931643 – 1944
20201911861038897 – 1179180017831631 – 1935
20202010311029902 – 1155174617651615 – 1915
20202110691015892 – 1138170217551615 – 1895
20202210041007887 – 1127172517461602 – 1890
202023909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
202024958997888 – 1106173417401592 – 1889
202025912989879 – 1099178317361585 – 1886
202026940985864 – 1107172117321585 – 1879
202027931992850 – 1134170817311567 – 1896
202028911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
2020299001003855 – 1152162817171555 – 1879
2020309571004854 – 1154171617041553 – 1855
202031946997851 – 1143172216901540 – 1840
202032904993846 – 1140173616901546 – 1834
2020331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
2020341113980849 – 1111174216831553 – 1813
202035995974860 – 1087173816931550 – 1835
202036942973860 – 1087174817031562 – 1844
202037942977865 – 1089179717211579 – 1862
202038980989876 – 1102174017401594 – 1886
20203910541001892 – 1110183817511606 – 1896
20204010761015897 – 1133192217711632 – 1909
20204110901028908 – 1147193017801638 – 1922
20204212171042910 – 1175200317971663 – 1930
20204313171054912 – 1195213218081650 – 1966
20204415201068920 – 1215215918211662 – 1981
20204513911074925 – 1224219818271664 – 1991
20204614231086936 – 1235215218461678 – 2014
20204712861102953 – 1252204318701684 – 2056
20204812861121964 – 1278211518921702 – 2081
20204912861135970 – 1300223319011683 – 2120
20205014511163996 – 1329215519371721 – 2153
202051160511931019 – 1368229119721739 – 2205
202052172212231035 – 1410212719991763 – 2236
202053173112441050 – 1437235320221781 – 2263
20211165712641065 – 1463248420451799 – 2290
20212158812841089 – 1480225820591813 – 2305
20213153912941098 – 1491231420821825 – 2339
20214146413131125 – 1501224621111863 – 2360
20215143413231131 – 1515221421171874 – 2361
20216135013221112 – 1532219621121846 – 2379
20217136613221082 – 1562215221201816 – 2423
20218115713091056 – 1561204521111783 – 2439
20219110212881018 – 1559199120961776 – 2416
202110114712721001 – 1543208620751772 – 2379
2021119941241962 – 1519202520441761 – 2328
20211210411203939 – 1466198920021733 – 2271
20211310271167923 – 1412211719671734 – 2199
20211410051131925 – 1337215819231727 – 2118
2021151102920 – 128318841727 – 2040
2021161085922 – 124818581708 – 2008
2021171065908 – 122118321681 – 1983
2021181058910 – 120518111660 – 1961
2021191048907 – 118918001648 – 1952
2021201039912 – 116517821632 – 1933
202121
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* Provisional figures. Week 14 in 2021 is an estimate.

Excess mortality among people under 80

Over the past two weeks, mortality among people under the age of 80 has been higher than expected. Based on the estimate in week 14, there is even excess mortality. Mortality among people aged 80 and over was again lower than expected. In week 14, an estimated 450 deaths were recorded among people under 65; 1,050 deaths among people aged 65 to 79 and 1,700 deaths among people aged 80 and over.

Weekly mortality*
   Population 0 to 65 years, deathsPopulation 0 to 64 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 0 to 64 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 65 to 79 yrs, deathsPopulation 65 to 79 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 65 to 79 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 80 yrs and over, deathsPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortalityPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval)
20201385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182319181632 – 2204
20202432413371 – 456968944851 – 1038196619571650 – 2263
20203418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
20204352417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175820301701 – 2360
20205449417375 – 460924956857 – 1056179020391717 – 2360
20206401417371 – 463981957843 – 1071181220321691 – 2373
20207409420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
20208340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
20209404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178319841574 – 2394
202010394417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182319571557 – 2357
202011410415367 – 463949932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
202012450410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
202013502407366 – 4481402907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
202014499401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
202015483394355 – 4321436876809 – 942306216881496 – 1880
202016426389350 – 4271233867799 – 935264816601505 – 1815
202017454383341 – 4251154857787 – 926229916301490 – 1769
202018444381342 – 419999847779 – 916193616131472 – 1755
202019390380339 – 420914845777 – 912168215971458 – 1735
202020374378339 – 418835834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
202021369377335 – 419805832766 – 898159715601459 – 1661
202022369376330 – 422858830764 – 895150215471451 – 1643
202023385378335 – 421836827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
202024407383340 – 425836829770 – 888144915251431 – 1619
202025375382341 – 423856827765 – 889146415141427 – 1601
202026382384342 – 426828825763 – 887145115071407 – 1606
202027403385342 – 428809829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
202028389386347 – 424813830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
202029372389351 – 426775830762 – 899138114991337 – 1661
202030408387349 – 425821828759 – 896144414911343 – 1639
202031376383347 – 419842824752 – 896145014781334 – 1622
202032419384345 – 423820829755 – 904140114671318 – 1615
202033463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
202034416382342 – 422862829756 – 901157714501346 – 1554
202035352384338 – 429864831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
202036414385339 – 431828833766 – 900144814561373 – 1538
202037394390343 – 437895839773 – 905145014661383 – 1548
202038394397350 – 445844850777 – 923148214791390 – 1568
202039394396346 – 447880855785 – 924161814981416 – 1580
202040434400348 – 453914865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
202041378400354 – 447990868785 – 950165215371436 – 1638
202042432405360 – 449985872788 – 956180315601446 – 1674
202043426406362 – 4501079878787 – 969194415761438 – 1713
202044407403360 – 4471165888798 – 979210715951443 – 1748
202045434403362 – 4431110890807 – 973204516071441 – 1774
202046433408369 – 4461059898814 – 982208316251449 – 1801
202047413411376 – 4471083913829 – 996183316471468 – 1826
202048432414377 – 4501082925845 – 1005188716731482 – 1863
202049443411373 – 4501106933843 – 1022197016921481 – 1903
202050460413374 – 4511102938853 – 1023204417491525 – 1973
202051472416378 – 4541180941848 – 1034224418091563 – 2056
202052429415375 – 4551139944849 – 1039228118651598 – 2132
202053458413372 – 4541271958863 – 1052235518981621 – 2174
20211429411369 – 4521178971877 – 1065253419301644 – 2215
20212410409367 – 4511109969875 – 1062232719691662 – 2275
20213423411366 – 4551084969875 – 1062234620001670 – 2331
20214401412370 – 4551104974880 – 1067220520421713 – 2372
20215378413370 – 4551099981881 – 1080217120511730 – 2372
20216410413366 – 4591096981867 – 1095204020441703 – 2385
20217475415369 – 4621036986856 – 1115200720441661 – 2427
20218403416369 – 463982986840 – 1133181720211612 – 2430
20219413415365 – 466964975830 – 1121171619971587 – 2407
202110409413365 – 460987969828 – 1109183719691569 – 2369
202111402410363 – 458979956827 – 1085163819211549 – 2292
202112381405360 – 4511004941819 – 1062164518601514 – 2206
202113404402361 – 4441028930830 – 1031171218021497 – 2108
202114455396353 – 4401033912829 – 995167517461500 – 1992
202115390351 – 428898831 – 96516991507 – 1891
202116385346 – 423890822 – 95816701515 – 1825
202117379337 – 420879809 – 94816401500 – 1779
202118377338 – 415869801 – 93716231482 – 1764
202119376335 – 416866799 – 93416071468 – 1745
202120374335 – 414855789 – 92215911469 – 1712
202121
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* Provisional figures. Week 14 in 2021 is an estimate.

Higher mortality among men

More men than women have died in the past four weeks. During the first weeks of the first epidemic wave and during several weeks of the second wave, mortality was likewise higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men. In week 14, the estimated number of deaths among men and women stood at 1,650 and 1,550 respectively.

COVID-19 mortality known up to December inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including December 2020. According to these figures, slightly over 20 thousand people died of COVID-19 between March and December 2020, as published by CBS on 7 March. Excess mortality during the first wave and during the first fifteen weeks of the second wave is entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

To date, RIVM has registered 16,821 COVID-19 deaths. These include 11,929 recorded until December 2020 inclusive (as at 13 April 2021). RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: it is possible that not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Estimate for week 14

The figures for week 14 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 14 on Friday 23 April. The figures will be more complete by then.

Sources

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