Mortality in week 14 higher than expected

From week 39 of 2020 to week 6 of 2021, weekly mortality was higher than expected. In week 7, the number of deaths was more or less the same as the expected mortality for this period; it was lower than expected in the subsequent weeks. In week 13, the number of deaths was more or less the same again as expected, while estimated mortality for week 14 is slightly above the expected level. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) registered 112 COVID-19 deaths in week 14 (as at 13 April).

Mortality among long-term care users below expected level

In week 14, the number of deaths among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) decreased slightly; since week 8, it has been below the expected level for this period. There were over 100 fewer deaths among long-term care recipients than expected. Mortality among the rest of the population has increased in the past two weeks and is now above the expected level. In the estimate for week 14, there is even excess mortality: the estimated number of deaths is higher than the expectation interval (the light green area in the figure).

There were around 1,000 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,150 deaths were recorded.

Excess mortality among people under 80

Over the past two weeks, mortality among people under the age of 80 has been higher than expected. Based on the estimate in week 14, there is even excess mortality. Mortality among people aged 80 and over was again lower than expected. In week 14, an estimated 450 deaths were recorded among people under 65; 1,050 deaths among people aged 65 to 79 and 1,700 deaths among people aged 80 and over.

Higher mortality among men

More men than women have died in the past four weeks. During the first weeks of the first epidemic wave and during several weeks of the second wave, mortality was likewise higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men. In week 14, the estimated number of deaths among men and women stood at 1,650 and 1,550 respectively.

COVID-19 mortality known up to December inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including December 2020. According to these figures, slightly over 20 thousand people died of COVID-19 between March and December 2020, as published by CBS on 7 March. Excess mortality during the first wave and during the first fifteen weeks of the second wave is entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

To date, RIVM has registered 16,821 COVID-19 deaths. These include 11,929 recorded until December 2020 inclusive (as at 13 April 2021). RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: it is possible that not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Estimate for week 14

The figures for week 14 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 14 on Friday 23 April. The figures will be more complete by then.