Economic contraction 0.1 percent in Q4 2020

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 16 February. The 0.1-percent decline in Q4 was mainly caused by decreased household consumption. Increased investments cushioned the economic contraction.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data on sectors including construction, business services, accommodation and food services, the public sector, care and finance. These data are then incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first estimate have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.1 and + 0.3 percentage points.

Adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2020

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. While conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised for all three quarters: Q1 from -1.5 to -1.6 percent, Q2 from -8.5 to -8.4 percent, and Q3 from 7.8 to 7.7 percent.

Contraction relative to Q4 2019 adjusted to 2.8 percent

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was -2.8 percent. This was -2.9 percent in the first estimate. The growth rates for Q2 and Q3 have been adjusted as well, from -9.4 to -9.3 and from -2.5 to -2.4 percent, respectively. The adjustments are mainly due to upward adjustments for manufacturing and for taxes on products.

GDP 3.7 percent down in 2020

Due to the adjustments in annual growth rates for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2020, annual GDP growth was also adjusted to 3.7 percent for 2020, versus 3.8 percent according to the first estimate. This contraction is the same as in 2009. It was mainly due to lower household consumption, but aggravated by declining investments in fixed assets and a declining trade balance. However, public consumption showed slight growth.

5 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that, in Q4 2020, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 5 thousand relative to Q3 2020. The first estimate suggested a decline of 14 thousand jobs.

The second estimate further suggests a year-on-year decrease of 108 thousand employee and self-employed jobs in Q4, versus 133 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2020 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of employee and self-employed jobs decreased by 48 thousand on average in 2020.