Entrepreneurs still pessimistic about export position

© CBS
At the beginning of 2021, Dutch entrepreneurs had a predominantly negative opinion about exports for the fourth consecutive quarter, despite less pessimism among manufacturers compared to the previous quarters. Wholesalers and entrepreneurs in the service sector were almost as negative as at the end of last year. In Q2 2020, as coronavirus was developing into a global pandemic, entrepreneurs were most pessimistic about exports. This is evident from the third release of the export indicator by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
The CBS export indicator gauges the mood among enterprises with five or more employed persons (not only exporters) at the start of each quarter in terms of foreign turnover, competitive position, order position and expected intake of orders from abroad. The indicator therefore shows in which direction exports of goods and services are expected to develop according to these entrepreneurs. Figures for the export indicator over Q1 2021 were collected at the beginning of January.

Industrial entrepreneurs less negative than in previous quarters

In Q1, manufacturers were again less pessimistic about exports. After the all-time low of -20 in Q2 of last year, the export indicator rose in each subsequent quarter and stood at -1.2 by the beginning of 2021. Despite this upward trend in the export indicator, on balance pessimism was still slightly more prevalent among the manufacturers.

Export indicator manufacturing industry
JaarKwartaalExport indicator (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign turnover (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Outlook on foreign order intake (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign order position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on international competitive position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)
2018Q17.311.210.72.04.3
2018Q26.510.210.60.43.9
2018Q36.49.011.00.44.5
2018Q43.75.94.40.12.8
2019Q14.27.05.8-0.63.2
2019Q23.54.86.8-0.12.4
2019Q32.75.12.7-0.51.7
2019Q40.32.3-0.1-2.60.0
2020Q10.21.43.3-4.8-0.1
2020Q2-20.0-25.3-42.3-23.5-1.9
2020Q3-10.0-13.3-0.2-24.7-4.2
2020Q4-6.0-3.9-6.1-19.4-1.2
2021Q1-1.23.20.2-12.5-0.6

The underlying component indicators provide a more nuanced picture: for the first time in twelve months, for example, manufacturers were positive again about future foreign turnover and cautiously optimistic about their expected foreign order intake. Although less negative than in the previous quarter, the entrepreneurs were pessimistic about their foreign order and competitive position, with the former component indicator standing out at -12.5. In the last three quarters of 2020, the component indicators were still negative without exception.

Wholesalers more negative about foreign turnover

In Q1 2021, wholesale entrepreneurs were slightly more pessimistic about exports than in the previous quarter, mainly due to a more negative opinion about foreign turnover; this indicator fell from -2.1 to -9.8. The other component indicators showed an either more positive or less negative mood among wholesalers. Although the expected foreign order intake and foreign order position were rated less negatively, the general outlook on these two component indicators was still pessimistic. Wholesalers have been positive about their international competitive position for years; at the beginning of this year, the positive mood improved further.

Export indicator wholesale and commission trade
JaarKwartaalExport indicator (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign turnover (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Outlook on foreign order intake (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign order position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on international competitive position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)
2018Q19.614.513.92.56.1
2018Q29.815.717.80.24.7
2018Q38.012.513.81.53.7
2018Q45.29.49.3-2.02.6
2019Q13.98.77.3-2.90.7
2019Q27.311.810.21.34.5
2019Q36.18.711.3-2.25.0
2019Q43.78.33.3-2.12.3
2020Q15.39.38.3-2.83.8
2020Q2-19.8-26.8-39.7-25.50.1
2020Q3-12.0-12.8-24.6-24.21.0
2020Q4-4.7-2.1-10.5-17.41.8
2021Q1-5.5-9.8-5.8-15.33.7

Outlook in service sector still negative

After the lowest point was reached in Q2 2020, the pessimistic outlook on future exports in the service sector improved over the subsequent quarters. The overall outlook did remain pessimistic; at the beginning of this year, the export indicator deteriorated again slightly from -2.4 to -2.7. On balance, entrepreneurs in the service sector had a negative outlook on all underlying component indicators. Compared to the previous quarter, they were less negative regarding their foreign order position. Foreign turnover and competitive position were rated more negatively, while the outlook on the foreign order intake deteriorated as well.

Export indicator services (not trade)
JaarKwartaalExport indicator (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign turnover (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Outlook on foreign order intake (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on foreign order position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)Opinion on international competitive position (balance of positive and negative outlook at enterprises)
2018Q14.47.56.10.02.6
2018Q24.57.65.00.53.2
2018Q34.07.05.1-1.33.1
2018Q42.85.04.1-2.12.5
2019Q11.83.03.9-2.71.8
2019Q25.08.88.1-1.52.9
2019Q34.27.55.4-0.92.8
2019Q41.02.70.0-3.52.0
2020Q10.20.71.8-3.50.9
2020Q2-14.4-18.4-26.6-19.5-1.9
2020Q3-5.8-7.01.1-16.4-2.8
2020Q4-2.4-1.0-0.1-11.9-0.2
2021Q1-2.7-1.2-1.6-9.9-1.1

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