Mortality declining further in week 5

Since week 39 of 2020, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. During the second epidemic wave up to week 5 of 2021 inclusive, altogether more than 71 thousand deaths were recorded. This is 9.7 thousand more than expected mortality in this period. The estimated mortality in week 5 is slightly above the expected mortality in this period.

Mortality further down among long-term care users

Among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), estimated mortality declined further during week 5 of 2021. Mortality rose slightly among the rest of the population. There were over 1,400 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,200 deaths were recorded.
During the second epidemic wave, so far 28 thousand people have died among the population receiving long-term care (week 39 of 2020 to week 5 of 2021 inclusive). This is 5.0 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of 22 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far 43 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by 12 percent (4.7 thousand).

Mortality down among both men and women

In week 5 of 2021, mortality fell among both men and women relative to the previous week, although the decline was more pronounced among women. According to estimates, there were more deaths among men than among women in week 5. The numbers were roughly equal in the previous week.
In the first few weeks of the first epidemic wave and over several weeks during the second wave, mortality was relatively higher among men as well, even though the elderly population includes more women than men.
During the second epidemic wave, so far almost 36 thousand deaths have been recorded among the male population. This is 5.7 thousand (19 percent) more than expected for this period. Among the female population, slightly over 35 thousand deaths have been recorded, i.e. 4.0 thousand (13 percent) more than expected for this period.

Further decline in mortality among the over-80s

In week 5, there were again fewer deaths among the population aged 80 and over, while the number remained more or less unchanged among the population aged 65 to 79 years. A slight decline was recorded among the population under the age of 65. The estimated mortality in this age group is lower than what might be expected for this period. This included an estimated 2,150 people aged 80 years and over, 1,100 people aged 65 to 79 and over 350 people under the age of 65.
During the second wave so far 41 thousand people aged 80 and over have died (week 39 of 2020 to week 5 of 2021 inclusive) which is 18 percent (6.2 thousand deaths) more than expected for this period. In the group 65 to 79 years, excess mortality stood at 18 percent (over 3.2 thousand excess deaths). In the group under 65 years, so far 3 percent (approximately 270) more people have died during the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known up to October inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on the number of reported deaths received every day by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a lager stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including October 2020. According to these figures, nearly 13 thousand people died of COVID-19 between March and October 2020, as published by CBS on 5 February. Excess mortality during the first epidemic wave and the six first weeks of the second wave is entirely attributable to the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. Due to the following reasons, the actual COVID-19 death count is likely higher: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19, and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,185 COVID-19 deaths. Between week 39 of 2020 and week 5 of 2021, RIVM registered 8,112 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 296 deaths reported in week 5 (as at 9 February 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period (1 July to week 39 of 2020).

Estimate for week 5

The figures for week 5 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records received by CBS. On Friday 19 February, CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 5. The figures will be more complete by then.