Mortality slightly lower in week 4

Since week 39 of 2020, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. During the second epidemic wave up to week 4 of 2021 inclusive, nearly 68 thousand deaths were recorded. This is 9.6 thousand more than the expected mortality in this period. Estimated mortality for week 4 is just within the range of expected mortality.

Mortality further down among long-term care users

In week 4, the estimated number of deaths among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) declined further. Mortality among the rest of the population remained more or less the same. There were approximately 1,500 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, nearly 2,300 deaths were recorded.

During the second epidemic wave, so far nearly 27 thousand people have died among the population receiving long-term care (week 39 of 2020 to week 4 of 2021 inclusive). This is 5.0 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of 23 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far almost 41 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by 13 percent (4.6 thousand).

Declining mortality among women

Relative to the previous week, mortality declined among women in week 4 , against a slight increase among men. The estimated number of deaths was slightly higher among men than among women. In the previous week, slightly more women than men passed away.

During the first weeks of the first epidemic wave and during several weeks of the second wave, mortality was likewise higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men.

During the second wave, so far over 32 thousand deaths have been recorded among the male population, which is 5.6 thousand (20 percent) more than expected for this period. Among the female population, slightly over 33 thousand deaths have been recorded, 4.0 thousand (14 percent) more than expected for this period.

More deaths among 65 to 79-year-olds

In week 4, mortality rose slightly in the age group 65 to 79. Among people under 65 and among the over-80s, slightly fewer deaths were recorded. Estimated mortality stood at 2,250 among people aged 80 years and over, at more than 1,100 among the age group 65 to 79 and at slightly under 400 among people under the age of 65.

So far during the second epidemic wave, nearly 39 thousand people aged 80 and over have died (week 39 of 2020 to week 4 of 2021 inclusive), which is 19 percent (6.1 thousand deaths) more than expected for this period. Excess mortality was also recorded in the group 65 to 79 years, namely 18 percent (3.2 thousand excess deaths). In the group under age 65, so far 4 percent (approximately 320) more people have passed away during the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known up to October inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including October 2020. According to these figures, nearly 13 thousand people died from COVID-19 between March and October 2020, as published by CBS on 5 February. Excess mortality during the first wave and during the first six weeks of the second wave is entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,184 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 of 2020 to week 4 of 2021, RIVM registered 7,708 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 318 deaths reported in week 4 (as at 2 February 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period (1 July to week 38 of 2020).

Estimate for week 4

The figures for week 4 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 4 on Friday 12 February. The figures will be more complete by then.