Mortality still elevated: 3,800 deaths in week 3

Since week 39 of 2020, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. During the second epidemic wave up to week 3 of 2021 inclusive, altogether nearly 64 thousand deaths were recorded. This is 9.3 thousand more than expected mortality in this period. The excess mortality is now higher than during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic.

Mortality further down among long-term care users

Among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), estimated mortality declined further during week 3 of 2021. Mortality rose slightly among the rest of the population. There were over 1,500 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,300 deaths were recorded.

During the second epidemic wave, so far 25 thousand people have died among the population receiving long-term care (week 39 of 2020 to week 3 of 2021 inclusive). This is 4.8 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of more than 24 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far almost 39 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by more than 13 percent (4.4 thousand).

Declining mortality among men

In week 3 of 2021, mortality declined among men relative to the previous week, against a slight increase among women. The estimated number of deaths was slightly higher among women than among men.

In the first few weeks wave of the coronavirus epidemic and in several consecutive weeks during the second wave, mortality was relatively higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men.

During the second week of the coronavirus epidemic, so far over 32 thousand deaths have been recorded among the male population. This is 5.3 thousand (20 percent) more than expected for this period. Among the female population, slightly under 32 thousand deaths have been recorded, 4.0 thousand (14 percent) more than expected for this period.

Fewer disparities by age

Mortality by age group in week 3 was approximately the same as in the previous week. This included an estimated 2,350 people aged 80 years and over, 1,050 people aged 65 to 79 and over 400 people under the age of 65.

During the second wave in the period week 39 of 2020 to week 3 of 2021 inclusive, so far almost 37 thousand people aged 80 and over have died. This is 19 percent (5.9 thousand deaths) more than expected for this period. In the group 65 to 79 years, excess mortality stood at 18 percent (over 3.0 thousand excess deaths). In the group under 65 years, so far 5 percent (approximately 350) more people have died during the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known up to June inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on the number of reported deaths received every day by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a lager stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, slightly over 10,000 people died of COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. Due to the following reasons, the actual COVID-19 death count is likely higher: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19, and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In week 39 of 2020 through week 3 of 2021, RIVM registered 7,271 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 391 deaths reported in week 3 (as at 26 January 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 3

The figures for week 3 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records received by CBS. On Friday 5 February, CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 3. The figures will be more complete by then.