2020: nearly 169 thousand deaths, 10 percent more than expected

Mortality was mainly elevated in the spring during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. It was also higher than expected during last year’s heatwave and again during the second wave of the pandemic.
Excess mortality is a recurring phenomenon. A flu epidemic at the beginning of the year tends to raise mortality on an annual basis. This was the case in 2015 and in 2018, for instance. Following a year marked by undermortality, 2015 brought a severe influenza epidemic that eventually caused over 5,000 excess deaths that year. During the 2018 influenza epidemic, excess mortality amounted to 9 thousand. It came out below 3 thousand over the whole year 2018 due to fewer deaths than expected in the months following the influenza outbreak. With over 15 thousand more deaths than expected, excess mortality was significantly higher in 2020 than in the years with severe influenza outbreaks.

Southeast relatively hardest hit

In 2020, there were mainly more excess deaths in the GGD (municipal health) regions in eastern Noord-Brabant, Limburg and southern Gelderland. Other GGD regions with significantly elevated mortality included Zaanstreek/Waterland, Flevoland and Rotterdam-Rijnmond. Excess mortality was relatively limited in the northern regions and in Zeeland province.
The fact that south-eastern regions saw relatively the highest excess mortality last year was mainly due to the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Excess mortality was spread more evenly across the country during the second epidemic wave in the fall of 2020.

Long-term care users hit harder than rest of population

In 2020, there were 65 thousand deaths among the population receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz). This was almost 8 thousand deaths or 14 percent more than expected. Mortality among the rest of the population stood at 104 thousand, i.e. over 7 thousand (8 percent) more than expected.
Among the group using long-term care, 80 percent of the deceased were people aged 80 years or older. Sixty-one percent were female. Among the rest of the population, mortality in the age group 80 years and up occupied a much smaller share at 42 percent while male mortality (57 percent) exceeded female mortality.

Mortality higher than expected among men in particular

Last year, the mortality rate was approximately equally high among both sexes. It is normally higher among women due to the fact that there are more women among the elderly part of the population. Especially in the first few weeks of the coronavirus epidemic wave and over several consecutive weeks of the second wave, the number of deaths was higher among men. Over the whole of 2020, male mortality was nearly 12 percent higher than expected while female mortality was over 8 percent higher.

Not just more elderly deaths

Although mortality was elevated primarily among the elderly, it was also higher than expected among people under age 65, namely by 4 percent (over 900 deaths). In the age group 65 to 79 years, mortality was 12 percent higher than expected (over 5 thousand excess deaths) while it was 10 percent among people aged 80 and over (almost 9 thousand excess deaths).

Life expectancy declined in 2020

A summary indication of mortality in a given year is the period life expectancy. This figure represents the number of remaining years a person is expected to live, based on the number of deaths by age for that year.
In 2020, the period life expectancy at birth was 79.7 years for men and 83.1 years for women. This is lower than in the previous year by over 9 months (0.8 years) for men and 6 months (0.5 years) for women. The average trend in life expectancy is gradually rising year over year.
Despite the drop in 2020, the coronavirus pandemic will not have a downward effect on the long-term rise in life expectancy. Life expectancy recovered rapidly after other periods with high mortality such as the Spanish flu and the Second World War. The CBS population forecast is still based on the assumption that within several years, life expectancy will again be close to the level that was forecast prior to the coronavirus pandemic.