Almost 4 thousand deaths in first week of 2021

Since week 39 of 2020, weekly mortality has been higher than expected. During the second epidemic wave, slightly over 56 thousand people have died up to the first week of 2021 inclusive. This is altogether 8.2 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected in this period.

Nearly 169 thousand deaths in 2020

In 2020, the total number of deaths stood at almost 169 thousand, which is more than 15 thousand (10 percent) more than was expected for that year. Mortality was particularly high during spring, during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic. However, excess mortality was also recorded during the heatwave in weeks 33 and 34 and during the second epidemic wave. 

Mortality among long-term care users still elevated

Among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), the estimated mortality was less elevated during week 1 of 2021 but remained relatively high. There were approximately 1,600 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. In the last week of 2020, over 1,700 deaths were recorded among long-term care users. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,350 deaths were recorded in both weeks.
Both the population receiving long-term care and the rest of the population have shown excess mortality. The estimated excess mortality among long-term care users in week 1 of this year stood at 26 percent. This was still only 39 percent in the last week of 2020. Excess mortality among the rest of the population stood at approximately 15 percent in both weeks.
During the second epidemic wave, so far 22 thousand people have died among the population receiving long-term care (week 39 of 2020 to week 1 of 2021 inclusive). This is 4.2 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of more than 24 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far 30 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by more than 13 percent (3.9 thousand).

Increased mortality among men

In week 53 of 2020, mortality rose relatively more sharply among men than among women, compared to the previous week. In week 1 of 2021, there were fewer deaths among men again than in the previous week. Mortality remained more or less the same among women. In both weeks, the mortality rate was higher among men than among women.
During the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic and at the beginning of the second wave, mortality was likewise relatively higher among men, even though the elderly population includes more women than men.

Mortality up among the over-80s and down among young people

Throughout the last week of 2020 and the first week of 2021, mortality increased among people aged 80 and over. In week 1 of 2021, over 2,400 deaths were recorded in this age group. This is nearly 500 deaths in excess of the expected number among this age group for this period.

Among the population under the age of 80, a slight increase was recorded in the last week of 2020, followed by a slight decline in week 1 of 2021. Over 1,100 people died in the age group 65 to 79 years, i.e. 150 more than expected. Among people under the age of 65, over 400 deaths were in excess of the expected number for this period.
During the second wave so far 31.9 thousand people aged 80 and over have died (week 39 of 2020 to week 1 of 2021 inclusive) which is 19 percent (5.1 thousand deaths) more than expected for this period. Excess mortality was also recorded in the group 65 to 79 years, namely 19 percent (over 2.7 thousand excess deaths). In the group under age 65, so far almost 5 percent (approximately 330) more people have died during the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known up to June inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on the number of reported deaths received every day by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a lager stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, slightly over 10,000 people died of COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual death count related to COVID-19 is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.
Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 2021, RIVM registered 6,156 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 512 deaths reported in week 1 (as at 12 January 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 1 of 2021

The figures for week 1 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records received by CBS. On Friday 22 January, CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 1. The figures will be more complete by then.