Week 52: mortality further up among long-term care users

Weekly mortality has been higher than expected since week 39. During the second epidemic wave (weeks 39 to 52 inclusive), altogether 6.7 thousand more deaths were recorded than would normally be expected in this period.

Mortality further up among long-term care users

Mortality rose among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz) in week 52. There were approximately 1,700 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. This means 500 excess deaths, and in relative terms 40 percent more than expected mortality in this period. Among the rest of the population, there were almost 2,100 deaths, representing a decline on week 51 by 200. Week 52 mortality in this group was at a level close to what would normally be expected for this time of year.

Among long-term care users, altogether 18.7 thousand deaths have so far been recorded over the course of the second epidemic wave (weeks 39 to 52 inclusive). This is 3.4 thousand more than the expected number for this period, an increase of more than 20 percent. Among the rest of the population, so far 29.2 thousand deaths have been recorded during the second wave, exceeding the expected number for this period by more than 10 percent (3.3 thousand).

Mortality among people under age 65 declining

Declining mortality was recorded in week 52 among people under the age of 65. The number of deaths in this group stood at 425, virtually equal to expected mortality. Almost 2,300 people died in the group aged 80 years and over, just as in week 51 and 400 more than expected. Among the population aged 65 to 79 years, mortality stood at almost 1,100 (i.e. almost 300 excess deaths); among the population aged under 65, mortality was almost 500 (i.e. more than 180 excess deaths). 

In the first twelve weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 to 52 inclusive), there were almost 27.1 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected in this period. Excess mortality was also recorded in the group 65 to 79 years, namely 18 percent (over 2.2 thousand excess deaths). In the group under age 65, so far almost 5 percent (280) more people have died during the second wave.

Relatively high excess mortality in Noord-Brabant

Relative excess mortality has been highest in the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Zuid-Holland (both around 20.5 percent) during the second wave (weeks 39 to 52 inclusive). This was closely followed by Utrecht, Overijssel and Flevoland with around 20 percent excess mortality. So far, no real excess mortality has been recorded in Zeeland province, while excess mortality has been limited in Groningen as well.

COVID-19 mortality known up to June inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on the number of reported deaths received every day by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a lager stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died of COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October<link naar bericht>. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual death count related to COVID-19 is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.
Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 52, RIVM registered 4,862 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 431 deaths reported in week 52 (as at 7 January 2021). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.