Mortality still elevated in week 49
As of week 39, weekly mortality is higher than expected. In the first eleven weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 49), there were 4.7 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected during this period. Excess mortality during the first wave (weeks 11 through 19) is estimated at nearly 9 thousand. With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic.
Deaths | Estimated mortality | Estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 3103 | 3277 | 2908 – 3645 |
2 | 3365 | 3311 | 2930 – 3692 |
3 | 3157 | 3344 | 2945 – 3742 |
4 | 3046 | 3392 | 3008 – 3776 |
5 | 3163 | 3407 | 3027 – 3788 |
6 | 3194 | 3401 | 2979 – 3823 |
7 | 3199 | 3408 | 2916 – 3901 |
8 | 2959 | 3387 | 2851 – 3922 |
9 | 3098 | 3352 | 2805 – 3898 |
10 | 3106 | 3315 | 2785 – 3845 |
11 | 3219 | 3253 | 2756 – 3751 |
12 | 3615 | 3174 | 2711 – 3637 |
13 | 4459 | 3104 | 2703 – 3505 |
14 | 5084 | 3024 | 2712 – 3337 |
15 | 4980 | 2957 | 2719 – 3195 |
16 | 4305 | 2915 | 2711 – 3120 |
17 | 3907 | 2869 | 2677 – 3060 |
18 | 3379 | 2841 | 2650 – 3032 |
19 | 2986 | 2821 | 2633 – 3009 |
20 | 2775 | 2794 | 2626 – 2962 |
21 | 2771 | 2770 | 2620 – 2920 |
22 | 2728 | 2753 | 2608 – 2898 |
23 | 2682 | 2735 | 2591 – 2880 |
24 | 2691 | 2737 | 2600 – 2875 |
25 | 2694 | 2725 | 2594 – 2855 |
26 | 2660 | 2717 | 2577 – 2857 |
27 | 2639 | 2723 | 2544 – 2902 |
28 | 2619 | 2719 | 2515 – 2923 |
29 | 2528 | 2720 | 2507 – 2934 |
30 | 2671 | 2707 | 2515 – 2900 |
31 | 2667 | 2687 | 2492 – 2882 |
32 | 2640 | 2682 | 2483 – 2881 |
33 | 3209 | 2669 | 2481 – 2857 |
34 | 2853 | 2663 | 2510 – 2815 |
35 | 2732 | 2667 | 2526 – 2807 |
36 | 2689 | 2676 | 2549 – 2804 |
37 | 2738 | 2698 | 2564 – 2832 |
38 | 2718 | 2729 | 2585 – 2873 |
39 | 2891 | 2752 | 2618 – 2886 |
40 | 2996 | 2786 | 2628 – 2943 |
41 | 3019 | 2807 | 2655 – 2960 |
42 | 3212 | 2839 | 2677 – 3001 |
43 | 3444 | 2862 | 2661 – 3063 |
44 | 3674 | 2889 | 2683 – 3095 |
45 | 3587 | 2902 | 2692 – 3111 |
46 | 3552 | 2932 | 2710 – 3155 |
47 | 3315 | 2972 | 2742 – 3202 |
48 | 3373 | 3012 | 2762 – 3263 |
49 | 3448 | 3037 | 2742 – 3332 |
50 | 3100 | 2800 – 3399 | |
51 | 3166 | 2830 – 3501 | |
52 | 3222 | 2871 – 3573 | |
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate. |
Lower mortality among long-term care users
Based on the estimate for week 49, the number of deaths has decreased among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes. In week 49, over 1,200 long-term care users passed away. There were more than 2,200 deaths among the rest of the population, i.e. an increase compared to week 48.
In the first eleven weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 49), there were nearly 2.2 thousand more deaths among long-term care users than would normally be expected during this period. During the first wave (weeks 11 through 19), this number stood at an estimated 5.2 thousand.
Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths | Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality | Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Other population, deaths | Other population, estimated mortality | Other population, estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1210 | 1252 | 1052 – 1451 | 1893 | 2025 | 1780 – 2270 |
2 | 1265 | 1272 | 1076 – 1468 | 2100 | 2039 | 1793 – 2285 |
3 | 1135 | 1282 | 1086 – 1478 | 2022 | 2062 | 1805 – 2319 |
4 | 1125 | 1301 | 1113 – 1489 | 1921 | 2091 | 1842 – 2339 |
5 | 1098 | 1310 | 1118 – 1503 | 2065 | 2097 | 1853 – 2341 |
6 | 1142 | 1309 | 1099 – 1519 | 2052 | 2092 | 1826 – 2358 |
7 | 1155 | 1309 | 1069 – 1549 | 2044 | 2099 | 1796 – 2403 |
8 | 1129 | 1296 | 1044 – 1549 | 1830 | 2091 | 1762 – 2419 |
9 | 1195 | 1276 | 1005 – 1546 | 1903 | 2076 | 1756 – 2396 |
10 | 1164 | 1260 | 989 – 1531 | 1942 | 2056 | 1752 – 2359 |
11 | 1200 | 1229 | 950 – 1507 | 2019 | 2025 | 1741 – 2308 |
12 | 1335 | 1191 | 928 – 1454 | 2280 | 1983 | 1714 – 2252 |
13 | 1656 | 1156 | 912 – 1400 | 2803 | 1948 | 1715 – 2180 |
14 | 2212 | 1120 | 915 – 1326 | 2872 | 1904 | 1709 – 2100 |
15 | 2409 | 1091 | 910 – 1273 | 2571 | 1866 | 1709 – 2022 |
16 | 2066 | 1075 | 912 – 1238 | 2239 | 1840 | 1691 – 1990 |
17 | 1716 | 1055 | 898 – 1211 | 2191 | 1814 | 1663 – 1965 |
18 | 1429 | 1048 | 900 – 1195 | 1950 | 1793 | 1643 – 1944 |
19 | 1186 | 1038 | 897 – 1179 | 1800 | 1783 | 1631 – 1935 |
20 | 1031 | 1029 | 902 – 1155 | 1744 | 1765 | 1615 – 1915 |
21 | 1069 | 1015 | 892 – 1138 | 1702 | 1755 | 1615 – 1895 |
22 | 1004 | 1007 | 887 – 1127 | 1724 | 1746 | 1602 – 1890 |
23 | 909 | 995 | 886 – 1104 | 1773 | 1740 | 1585 – 1895 |
24 | 958 | 997 | 888 – 1106 | 1733 | 1740 | 1592 – 1889 |
25 | 912 | 989 | 879 – 1099 | 1782 | 1736 | 1585 – 1886 |
26 | 940 | 985 | 864 – 1107 | 1720 | 1732 | 1585 – 1879 |
27 | 931 | 992 | 850 – 1134 | 1708 | 1731 | 1567 – 1896 |
28 | 911 | 998 | 849 – 1147 | 1708 | 1721 | 1552 – 1890 |
29 | 900 | 1003 | 855 – 1152 | 1628 | 1717 | 1555 – 1879 |
30 | 957 | 1004 | 854 – 1154 | 1714 | 1704 | 1553 – 1855 |
31 | 946 | 997 | 851 – 1143 | 1721 | 1690 | 1540 – 1840 |
32 | 904 | 993 | 846 – 1140 | 1736 | 1690 | 1546 – 1834 |
33 | 1311 | 987 | 840 – 1134 | 1898 | 1682 | 1531 – 1832 |
34 | 1113 | 980 | 849 – 1111 | 1740 | 1683 | 1553 – 1813 |
35 | 995 | 974 | 860 – 1087 | 1737 | 1693 | 1550 – 1835 |
36 | 942 | 973 | 860 – 1087 | 1747 | 1703 | 1562 – 1844 |
37 | 942 | 977 | 865 – 1089 | 1796 | 1721 | 1579 – 1862 |
38 | 980 | 989 | 876 – 1102 | 1738 | 1740 | 1594 – 1886 |
39 | 1054 | 1001 | 892 – 1110 | 1837 | 1751 | 1606 – 1896 |
40 | 1076 | 1015 | 897 – 1133 | 1920 | 1771 | 1632 – 1909 |
41 | 1090 | 1028 | 908 – 1147 | 1929 | 1780 | 1638 – 1922 |
42 | 1216 | 1042 | 910 – 1175 | 1996 | 1797 | 1663 – 1930 |
43 | 1316 | 1054 | 912 – 1195 | 2128 | 1808 | 1650 – 1966 |
44 | 1520 | 1068 | 920 – 1215 | 2154 | 1821 | 1662 – 1981 |
45 | 1390 | 1074 | 925 – 1224 | 2197 | 1827 | 1664 – 1991 |
46 | 1421 | 1086 | 936 – 1235 | 2131 | 1846 | 1678 – 2014 |
47 | 1285 | 1102 | 953 – 1252 | 2030 | 1870 | 1684 – 2056 |
48 | 1284 | 1121 | 964 – 1278 | 2089 | 1892 | 1702 – 2081 |
49 | 1230 | 1135 | 970 – 1300 | 2218 | 1901 | 1683 – 2120 |
50 | 1163 | 996 – 1329 | 1937 | 1721 – 2153 | ||
51 | 1193 | 1019 – 1368 | 1972 | 1739 – 2205 | ||
52 | 1223 | 1035 – 1410 | 1999 | 1763 – 2236 | ||
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate. |
Mortality among men and women in week 49 almost the same
In week 49, mortality increased among both men and women compared to the previous week. The increase among women appears to be slightly stronger, which means that the number of male and female deaths in week 49 is approximately the same: over 1,700.
In earlier weeks of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, more men than women passed away, although there are more older women than older men. The first wave saw more male deaths as well; in this period (weeks 11 up to and including 19), excess mortality stood at 38 percent among men, versus 29 percent among women.
Week | Men | Women |
---|---|---|
1 | 1503 | 1600 |
2 | 1677 | 1688 |
3 | 1530 | 1627 |
4 | 1470 | 1576 |
5 | 1577 | 1586 |
6 | 1592 | 1602 |
7 | 1507 | 1692 |
8 | 1485 | 1474 |
9 | 1504 | 1594 |
10 | 1518 | 1588 |
11 | 1597 | 1622 |
12 | 1873 | 1742 |
13 | 2366 | 2093 |
14 | 2666 | 2418 |
15 | 2528 | 2452 |
16 | 2124 | 2181 |
17 | 1932 | 1975 |
18 | 1674 | 1705 |
19 | 1462 | 1524 |
20 | 1418 | 1357 |
21 | 1389 | 1382 |
22 | 1327 | 1401 |
23 | 1373 | 1309 |
24 | 1314 | 1377 |
25 | 1343 | 1351 |
26 | 1317 | 1343 |
27 | 1281 | 1358 |
28 | 1217 | 1402 |
29 | 1235 | 1293 |
30 | 1319 | 1352 |
31 | 1299 | 1368 |
32 | 1320 | 1320 |
33 | 1541 | 1668 |
34 | 1419 | 1434 |
35 | 1346 | 1386 |
36 | 1329 | 1360 |
37 | 1347 | 1391 |
38 | 1373 | 1345 |
39 | 1438 | 1453 |
40 | 1500 | 1496 |
41 | 1570 | 1449 |
42 | 1609 | 1603 |
43 | 1807 | 1637 |
44 | 1856 | 1818 |
45 | 1856 | 1731 |
46 | 1791 | 1761 |
47 | 1692 | 1623 |
48 | 1715 | 1658 |
49 | 1734 | 1714 |
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate. |
Elevated mortality across all age groups
Excess mortality can be seen in all age groups. Among the over-80s, the estimated number of deaths in week 49 is estimated at slightly over 1,900. There were almost 1,100 deaths among people aged 65 to 79 and 450 among people under the age of 65.
Population 0 to 65 yrs, deaths | Population 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality | Population 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Population 65 to 80 yrs, deaths | Population 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality | Population 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval) | Population 80 yrs and over, deaths | Population 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality | Population 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 385 | 415 | 374 – 456 | 896 | 947 | 852 – 1041 | 1822 | 1918 | 1632 – 2204 |
2 | 432 | 413 | 371 – 456 | 967 | 944 | 851 – 1038 | 1966 | 1957 | 1650 – 2263 |
3 | 418 | 415 | 371 – 460 | 913 | 944 | 851 – 1038 | 1826 | 1988 | 1657 – 2319 |
4 | 352 | 417 | 374 – 459 | 936 | 949 | 856 – 1043 | 1758 | 2030 | 1701 – 2360 |
5 | 449 | 417 | 375 – 460 | 924 | 956 | 857 – 1056 | 1790 | 2039 | 1717 – 2360 |
6 | 401 | 417 | 371 – 463 | 981 | 957 | 843 – 1071 | 1812 | 2032 | 1691 – 2373 |
7 | 409 | 420 | 374 – 466 | 938 | 961 | 832 – 1091 | 1852 | 2032 | 1649 – 2415 |
8 | 340 | 420 | 374 – 467 | 870 | 961 | 815 – 1108 | 1749 | 2009 | 1600 – 2418 |
9 | 404 | 420 | 370 – 470 | 911 | 951 | 805 – 1096 | 1783 | 1984 | 1574 – 2394 |
10 | 394 | 417 | 370 – 464 | 889 | 944 | 804 – 1085 | 1823 | 1957 | 1557 – 2357 |
11 | 410 | 415 | 367 – 463 | 949 | 932 | 803 – 1062 | 1860 | 1909 | 1537 – 2281 |
12 | 450 | 410 | 364 – 456 | 1079 | 917 | 796 – 1039 | 2086 | 1849 | 1503 – 2195 |
13 | 502 | 407 | 366 – 448 | 1402 | 907 | 806 – 1008 | 2555 | 1791 | 1486 – 2097 |
14 | 498 | 401 | 357 – 444 | 1503 | 889 | 806 – 972 | 3083 | 1735 | 1490 – 1981 |
15 | 483 | 394 | 355 – 432 | 1436 | 876 | 809 – 942 | 3061 | 1688 | 1496 – 1880 |
16 | 426 | 389 | 350 – 427 | 1233 | 867 | 799 – 935 | 2646 | 1660 | 1505 – 1815 |
17 | 454 | 383 | 341 – 425 | 1154 | 857 | 787 – 926 | 2299 | 1630 | 1490 – 1769 |
18 | 444 | 381 | 342 – 419 | 999 | 847 | 779 – 916 | 1936 | 1613 | 1472 – 1755 |
19 | 390 | 380 | 339 – 420 | 914 | 845 | 777 – 912 | 1682 | 1597 | 1458 – 1735 |
20 | 374 | 378 | 339 – 418 | 833 | 834 | 768 – 901 | 1568 | 1581 | 1460 – 1703 |
21 | 369 | 377 | 335 – 419 | 805 | 832 | 766 – 898 | 1597 | 1560 | 1459 – 1661 |
22 | 368 | 376 | 330 – 422 | 858 | 830 | 764 – 895 | 1502 | 1547 | 1451 – 1643 |
23 | 385 | 378 | 335 – 421 | 836 | 827 | 767 – 887 | 1461 | 1529 | 1425 – 1634 |
24 | 407 | 383 | 340 – 425 | 835 | 829 | 770 – 888 | 1449 | 1525 | 1431 – 1619 |
25 | 375 | 382 | 341 – 423 | 856 | 827 | 765 – 889 | 1463 | 1514 | 1427 – 1601 |
26 | 382 | 384 | 342 – 426 | 828 | 825 | 763 – 887 | 1450 | 1507 | 1407 – 1606 |
27 | 403 | 385 | 342 – 428 | 809 | 829 | 764 – 894 | 1427 | 1507 | 1375 – 1639 |
28 | 389 | 386 | 347 – 424 | 813 | 830 | 760 – 899 | 1417 | 1501 | 1352 – 1650 |
29 | 372 | 389 | 351 – 426 | 775 | 830 | 762 – 899 | 1381 | 1499 | 1337 – 1661 |
30 | 407 | 387 | 349 – 425 | 821 | 828 | 759 – 896 | 1443 | 1491 | 1343 – 1639 |
31 | 376 | 383 | 347 – 419 | 842 | 824 | 752 – 896 | 1449 | 1478 | 1334 – 1622 |
32 | 419 | 384 | 345 – 423 | 820 | 829 | 755 – 904 | 1401 | 1467 | 1318 – 1615 |
33 | 463 | 382 | 345 – 418 | 928 | 826 | 749 – 904 | 1818 | 1459 | 1325 – 1592 |
34 | 416 | 382 | 342 – 422 | 862 | 829 | 756 – 901 | 1575 | 1450 | 1346 – 1554 |
35 | 352 | 384 | 338 – 429 | 863 | 831 | 761 – 900 | 1517 | 1450 | 1354 – 1546 |
36 | 414 | 385 | 339 – 431 | 828 | 833 | 766 – 900 | 1447 | 1456 | 1373 – 1538 |
37 | 393 | 390 | 343 – 437 | 895 | 839 | 773 – 905 | 1450 | 1466 | 1383 – 1548 |
38 | 393 | 397 | 350 – 445 | 843 | 850 | 777 – 923 | 1482 | 1479 | 1390 – 1568 |
39 | 394 | 396 | 346 – 447 | 879 | 855 | 785 – 924 | 1618 | 1498 | 1416 – 1580 |
40 | 434 | 400 | 348 – 453 | 912 | 865 | 789 – 941 | 1650 | 1518 | 1416 – 1620 |
41 | 378 | 400 | 354 – 447 | 989 | 868 | 785 – 950 | 1652 | 1537 | 1436 – 1638 |
42 | 429 | 405 | 360 – 449 | 982 | 872 | 788 – 956 | 1801 | 1560 | 1446 – 1674 |
43 | 423 | 406 | 362 – 450 | 1078 | 878 | 787 – 969 | 1943 | 1576 | 1438 – 1713 |
44 | 406 | 403 | 360 – 447 | 1162 | 888 | 798 – 979 | 2106 | 1595 | 1443 – 1748 |
45 | 433 | 403 | 362 – 443 | 1110 | 890 | 807 – 973 | 2044 | 1607 | 1441 – 1774 |
46 | 425 | 408 | 369 – 446 | 1051 | 898 | 814 – 982 | 2076 | 1625 | 1449 – 1801 |
47 | 411 | 411 | 376 – 447 | 1076 | 913 | 829 – 996 | 1828 | 1647 | 1468 – 1826 |
48 | 429 | 414 | 377 – 450 | 1066 | 925 | 845 – 1005 | 1878 | 1673 | 1482 – 1863 |
49 | 451 | 411 | 373 – 450 | 1089 | 933 | 843 – 1022 | 1908 | 1692 | 1481 – 1903 |
50 | 413 | 374 – 451 | 938 | 853 – 1023 | 1749 | 1525 – 1973 | |||
51 | 416 | 378 – 454 | 941 | 848 – 1034 | 1809 | 1563 – 2056 | |||
52 | 415 | 375 – 455 | 944 | 849 – 1039 | 1865 | 1598 – 2132 | |||
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate. |
COVID-19 mortality known until June
The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died from COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.
Data sources for RIVM
The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.
Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 49, it registered 3,383 COVID-19 deaths, of which 215 in week 49 (as at 8 December 2020). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.
Estimate for week 49
The figures for week 49 are estimates, based on 84 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 49 on Friday 18 December. The figures will be more complete by then.
Sources
- StatLine - Deaths registered weekly, by sex and age
Related items
- FAQ - How many deaths are registered per week?
- News release - Higher mortality in week 48
- RIVM - Current information about COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
- News release - Nearly 9 thousand more deaths in first 9 weeks of COVID-19
- News release - 10 thousand COVID-19 deaths during first wave of the pandemic