Mortality still elevated in week 49

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
© Hollandse Hoogte / Patricia Rehe
In week 49 (30 November to 6 December inclusive), the estimated number of deaths stood at 3,450. This is approximately 75 more than in the previous week, when there were 3,373 deaths. Mortality is always higher in winter. However, there were still 400 more deaths recorded in week 49 than normally expected for this period. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the latest provisional weekly mortality figures.

As of week 39, weekly mortality is higher than expected. In the first eleven weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 49), there were 4.7 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected during this period. Excess mortality during the first wave (weeks 11 through 19) is estimated at nearly 9 thousand. With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 DeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95% interval)
1310332772908 – 3645
2336533112930 – 3692
3315733442945 – 3742
4304633923008 – 3776
5316334073027 – 3788
6319434012979 – 3823
7319934082916 – 3901
8295933872851 – 3922
9309833522805 – 3898
10310633152785 – 3845
11321932532756 – 3751
12361531742711 – 3637
13445931042703 – 3505
14508430242712 – 3337
15498029572719 – 3195
16430529152711 – 3120
17390728692677 – 3060
18337928412650 – 3032
19298628212633 – 3009
20277527942626 – 2962
21277127702620 – 2920
22272827532608 – 2898
23268227352591 – 2880
24269127372600 – 2875
25269427252594 – 2855
26266027172577 – 2857
27263927232544 – 2902
28261927192515 – 2923
29252827202507 – 2934
30267127072515 – 2900
31266726872492 – 2882
32264026822483 – 2881
33320926692481 – 2857
34285326632510 – 2815
35273226672526 – 2807
36268926762549 – 2804
37273826982564 – 2832
38271827292585 – 2873
39289127522618 – 2886
40299627862628 – 2943
41301928072655 – 2960
42321228392677 – 3001
43344428622661 – 3063
44367428892683 – 3095
45358729022692 – 3111
46355229322710 – 3155
47331529722742 – 3202
48337330122762 – 3263
49344830372742 – 3332
5031002800 – 3399
5131662830 – 3501
5232222871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate.

Lower mortality among long-term care users

Based on the estimate for week 49, the number of deaths has decreased among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes. In week 49, over 1,200 long-term care users passed away. There were more than 2,200 deaths among the rest of the population, i.e. an increase compared to week 48.

In the first eleven weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 49), there were nearly 2.2 thousand more deaths among long-term care users than would normally be expected during this period. During the first wave (weeks 11 through 19), this number stood at an estimated 5.2 thousand.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Long-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
2126512721076 – 1468210020391793 – 2285
3113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
4112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
5109813101118 – 1503206520971853 – 2341
6114213091099 – 1519205220921826 – 2358
7115513091069 – 1549204420991796 – 2403
8112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
9119512761005 – 1546190320761756 – 2396
1011641260989 – 1531194220561752 – 2359
1112001229950 – 1507201920251741 – 2308
1213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
1316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
1422121120915 – 1326287219041709 – 2100
1524091091910 – 1273257118661709 – 2022
1620661075912 – 1238223918401691 – 1990
1717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
1814291048900 – 1195195017931643 – 1944
1911861038897 – 1179180017831631 – 1935
2010311029902 – 1155174417651615 – 1915
2110691015892 – 1138170217551615 – 1895
2210041007887 – 1127172417461602 – 1890
23909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
24958997888 – 1106173317401592 – 1889
25912989879 – 1099178217361585 – 1886
26940985864 – 1107172017321585 – 1879
27931992850 – 1134170817311567 – 1896
28911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
299001003855 – 1152162817171555 – 1879
309571004854 – 1154171417041553 – 1855
31946997851 – 1143172116901540 – 1840
32904993846 – 1140173616901546 – 1834
331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
341113980849 – 1111174016831553 – 1813
35995974860 – 1087173716931550 – 1835
36942973860 – 1087174717031562 – 1844
37942977865 – 1089179617211579 – 1862
38980989876 – 1102173817401594 – 1886
3910541001892 – 1110183717511606 – 1896
4010761015897 – 1133192017711632 – 1909
4110901028908 – 1147192917801638 – 1922
4212161042910 – 1175199617971663 – 1930
4313161054912 – 1195212818081650 – 1966
4415201068920 – 1215215418211662 – 1981
4513901074925 – 1224219718271664 – 1991
4614211086936 – 1235213118461678 – 2014
4712851102953 – 1252203018701684 – 2056
4812841121964 – 1278208918921702 – 2081
4912301135970 – 1300221819011683 – 2120
501163996 – 132919371721 – 2153
5111931019 – 136819721739 – 2205
5212231035 – 141019991763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate.

Mortality among men and women in week 49 almost the same

In week 49, mortality increased among both men and women compared to the previous week. The increase among women appears to be slightly stronger, which means that the number of male and female deaths in week 49 is approximately the same: over 1,700.

In earlier weeks of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, more men than women passed away, although there are more older women than older men. The first wave saw more male deaths as well; in this period (weeks 11 up to and including 19), excess mortality stood at 38 percent among men, versus 29 percent among women.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
WeekMenWomen
115031600
216771688
315301627
414701576
515771586
615921602
715071692
814851474
915041594
1015181588
1115971622
1218731742
1323662093
1426662418
1525282452
1621242181
1719321975
1816741705
1914621524
2014181357
2113891382
2213271401
2313731309
2413141377
2513431351
2613171343
2712811358
2812171402
2912351293
3013191352
3112991368
3213201320
3315411668
3414191434
3513461386
3613291360
3713471391
3813731345
3914381453
4015001496
4115701449
4216091603
4318071637
4418561818
4518561731
4617911761
4716921623
4817151658
4917341714
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate.

Elevated mortality across all age groups

Excess mortality can be seen in all age groups. Among the over-80s, the estimated number of deaths in week 49 is estimated at slightly over 1,900. There were almost 1,100 deaths among people aged 65 to 79 and 450 among people under the age of 65.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Population 0 to 65 yrs, deathsPopulation 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 65 to 80 yrs, deathsPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 80 yrs and over, deathsPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortalityPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182219181632 – 2204
2432413371 – 456967944851 – 1038196619571650 – 2263
3418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
4352417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175820301701 – 2360
5449417375 – 460924956857 – 1056179020391717 – 2360
6401417371 – 463981957843 – 1071181220321691 – 2373
7409420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
8340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
9404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178319841574 – 2394
10394417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182319571557 – 2357
11410415367 – 463949932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
12450410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
13502407366 – 4481402907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
14498401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
15483394355 – 4321436876809 – 942306116881496 – 1880
16426389350 – 4271233867799 – 935264616601505 – 1815
17454383341 – 4251154857787 – 926229916301490 – 1769
18444381342 – 419999847779 – 916193616131472 – 1755
19390380339 – 420914845777 – 912168215971458 – 1735
20374378339 – 418833834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
21369377335 – 419805832766 – 898159715601459 – 1661
22368376330 – 422858830764 – 895150215471451 – 1643
23385378335 – 421836827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
24407383340 – 425835829770 – 888144915251431 – 1619
25375382341 – 423856827765 – 889146315141427 – 1601
26382384342 – 426828825763 – 887145015071407 – 1606
27403385342 – 428809829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
28389386347 – 424813830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
29372389351 – 426775830762 – 899138114991337 – 1661
30407387349 – 425821828759 – 896144314911343 – 1639
31376383347 – 419842824752 – 896144914781334 – 1622
32419384345 – 423820829755 – 904140114671318 – 1615
33463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
34416382342 – 422862829756 – 901157514501346 – 1554
35352384338 – 429863831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
36414385339 – 431828833766 – 900144714561373 – 1538
37393390343 – 437895839773 – 905145014661383 – 1548
38393397350 – 445843850777 – 923148214791390 – 1568
39394396346 – 447879855785 – 924161814981416 – 1580
40434400348 – 453912865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
41378400354 – 447989868785 – 950165215371436 – 1638
42429405360 – 449982872788 – 956180115601446 – 1674
43423406362 – 4501078878787 – 969194315761438 – 1713
44406403360 – 4471162888798 – 979210615951443 – 1748
45433403362 – 4431110890807 – 973204416071441 – 1774
46425408369 – 4461051898814 – 982207616251449 – 1801
47411411376 – 4471076913829 – 996182816471468 – 1826
48429414377 – 4501066925845 – 1005187816731482 – 1863
49451411373 – 4501089933843 – 1022190816921481 – 1903
50413374 – 451938853 – 102317491525 – 1973
51416378 – 454941848 – 103418091563 – 2056
52415375 – 455944849 – 103918651598 – 2132
* Provisional figures. Week 49 is an estimate.

COVID-19 mortality known until June

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died from COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 49, it registered 3,383 COVID-19 deaths, of which 215 in week 49 (as at 8 December 2020). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 49

The figures for week 49 are estimates, based on 84 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 49 on Friday 18 December. The figures will be more complete by then.