More heat-related deaths, mainly in long-term care

At 1,307, the number of deaths among long-term care users was well above the average of 951 deaths in weeks 20 to 32 inclusive. These were primarily people receiving institutional care in nursing and care homes. The discrepancy was smaller among the rest of the population.

Mainly more deaths among the over-80s

During the heat wave, mortality was mainly higher among people over the age of 80. In week 33, there were 23 percent more deaths (343) among the over-80s than average in the preceding weeks. The majority of these people (290) had been receiving long-term care.

Among 65 to 79-year-olds, mortality was 11 percent higher (94 deaths) and among 50 to 64-year-olds it was up by 23 percent (65 deaths). In these groups as well, the increase among long-term care users was higher than among the rest of the population. No excess mortality was observed among people under the age of 50 in week 33.

In relative terms, mortality among people over 80 during the 2020 heat wave (219 per 100 thousand inhabitants in week 33) was slightly higher than during the 2019 heat wave (212 per 100 thousand inhabitants in week 30), but lower than mortality during the long heat wave in week 30 of 2006 (284 per 100 thousand inhabitants).

Smallest increase in the southern Netherlands

The excess deaths during the heat wave (week 33) mainly occurred in the western (+25 percent), northern (+20 percent) and eastern (+19 percent) parts of the country. In the south, the difference with previous weeks was less substantial (+7 percent). This part of the Netherlands had a higher mortality rate during the first nine weeks of the coronavirus epidemic.

In all parts of the country, the increase was relatively stronger among long-term care users than among the rest of the population. In the west of the country, the increase was largest among long-term care users: the number of deaths in this part of the country was up by one-half during the heat wave in week 33 compared to the average over the previous weeks.

Elevated mortality also still seen in week 34

For week 34 (17 to 23 August inclusive), the estimated number of deaths stands at 2,850. This is lower than in week 33 (3,172) but still higher than in the weeks before the heat wave. For weeks 33 and 34, the municipal health services (GGD) reported 26 and 21 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to RIVM respectively (as at 25 August). This means the excess mortality is almost entirely due to the higher maximum temperatures.

The excess mortality during the heat wave followed 13 weeks of relatively low mortality. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine weeks on account of the coronavirus epidemic. In weeks 11 to 19 of 2020, the estimated number of deaths in excess of the average during a similar-length period without a coronavirus pandemic stood at almost 9 thousand.

From 5 to 17 August 2020, an official national heat wave was measured in the Netherlands. This was a relatively long period (13 days) which included nine tropical days. Research has shown that mortality rises with the temperature (see also this news release). During the heat waves in 2018 and 2019, this connection was not as clear as in 2006, when there were several heat waves.