Economic contraction of 1.5 percent in Q1 2020

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 15 May, contraction was 1.7 percent. Compared to the first estimate, investments in fixed assets, including investments in construction and R&D, have been adjusted upwards. Household consumption has been adjusted slightly upwards as well. However, the trade balance has been adjusted downwards. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. GDP contraction in Q1 is mainly attributable to a decline in household consumption.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.04 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between - 0.1 and + 0.2 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2019, Q2 2019 and Q3 2019 has been adjusted from 0.3 to 0.4 percent, from 0.4 to 0.3 percent and from 0.4 to 0.5 percent respectively.

Growth relative to Q1 2019

Year-on-year, GDP declined by 0.2 percent. In the first estimate, contraction was 0.5 percent. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Year-on-year contraction was mainly due to lower household consumption and to stock movements.

Compared to the first estimate, output in the manufacturing industry has been adjusted upwards across the board. Production in the sectors construction, financial services, business services, public services and education was also higher than previously calculated.

Annual figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2020, revised annual figures over 2018 (final) and 2019 (provisional) are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the economic growth rate for 2019 (provisionally) has been adjusted from 1.8 to 1.7 percent. The growth rate for 2018 has been adjusted from 2.6 to 2.4 percent.

22 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 22 thousand in Q1 2020 compared to Q4 2019. The first estimate suggested an increase of 23 thousand jobs.

In Q1 2020, the second estimate suggested a growth of 137 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2019, versus 135 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.