Nearly 9 thousand more deaths in first 9 weeks of COVID-19

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Olaf Kraak Fotografie
In the first nine weeks of the corona crisis (week 11 to 19 inclusive), there were almost 9 thousand more deaths (estimated) than would normally be expected during this period. Total mortality stood at nearly 36 thousand, versus an estimated 27 thousand over the same period if there had not been an pandemic. This represents a relative excess mortality rate of 33 percent. Both the expected and the excess mortality have been estimated on the basis of mortality as recorded over the previous weeks, adjusted for seasonal factors. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on the basis of provisional weekly death counts.

The number of deaths in week 19 (ending 10 May) is estimated at over 3,000. This estimate has been based on the number of death certificates that Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has received so far for week 19. It means mortality is still exceeding the level that would normally be expected during this period. Adjusted for seasonal effects, week 19 would have an estimated 2,900 deaths had there not been a COVID-19 pandemic.
Up to and including week 10 of this year (ending 8 March), an average 3,134 people died per week. Mortality subsequently rose to reach its highest level in week 14 with 5,078 deaths.

Excess mortality higher among people with a migration background

In the first six weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relative excess mortality was higher among people with a migration background compared to people with a native Dutch background. In absolute terms, the number of deaths was nevertheless low among people with a migration background. 14 percent of all excess deaths in weeks 11 through 16 had a migration background.

Mortality almost back to normal in all age groups

The number of deaths in week 19 is still slightly above the expected level for this time of year in all age groups. The estimates for week 19 include more than 1,700 people aged 80 years and over, more than 900 people aged 65 to 79 and nearly 400 people under the age of 65.
Mortality over weeks 11 through 19 was higher among people aged 65 and over in particular. Relative excess mortality was an estimated 34 percent in this age group. Among the population under 65 years, relative excess mortality is estimated at 16 percent. The highest excess mortality is found in the age group 65 to 79 years.



Mortality rose among men in particular in weeks 11 through 19. The relative excess mortality is estimated at 36 percent among men and 27 percent among women. Week 19 mortality is still at a slightly higher level than what is normally expected among both sexes. Slightly over 1,450 men and 1,550 women are estimated to have passed away in week 19.

Highest excess mortality in Limburg and Noord-Brabant

Estimates of excess mortality over the first nine weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic are highest for the province of Limburg with 58 percent more deaths than expected, followed by Noord-Brabant (55 percent). In Gelderland, Overijssel, Noord-Holland, Utrecht and Zuid-Holland mortality was between 20 and 25 percent higher than expected. It was 15 percent or less in the other provinces. Only Groningen had no excess mortality.
In almost all provinces, mortality in week 19 is at the level that would normally be expected for that time of year.

Mortality distributions by municipality

In week 18, mortality was at least double the average over the first ten weeks of 2020 in eight different municipalities including Weesp and Heerde. Mortality was below average in 119 out of the 355 municipalities.
Mortality figures at the municipal level may fluctuate significantly, especially in the smaller municipalities. Sharp rises in a certain week may therefore be coincidental and not necessarily be resulting from the coronavirus epidemic.

Higher mortality coincides with COVID-19 epidemic in the Netherlands

The higher mortality coincides with the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Netherlands. The first confirmed COVID-19 patient in the Netherlands was reported on 27 February 2020. The first death involving COVID-19 was reported on 6 March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020.

Data sources for CBS and RIVM

CBS receives mortality data on a daily basis from municipal registers. This is before it receives any information on the causes of these deaths. CBS receives such information by way of the death cause certificates which are completed by the physician who attended the deceased. The publication of data from death cause certificates is normally scheduled for Q3 2020, but CBS will make every effort to release this information at an earlier stage.
RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis.

Estimates based on death certificates received so far

In general, some time elapses between the actual date of death and the moment when this data reaches CBS. Death certificates are collected weekly on Thursdays. Usually, mortality data collected on Thursday include slightly over 80 percent of all deaths over the previous week. This information provides an indication of the number of deaths that can be expected for that week.
Based on the data obtained over weeks 12 through 18, death certificates are currently being received sooner than usual (as the number of certificates that was received after one week turned out to cover 85 percent of all deaths with the exception of weeks with public holidays.The estimate for week 19 is based on the assumption that for this week as well, 85 percent has been received. As the percentage is uncertain, the actual number of deaths in week 19 may be higher or lower as a result.
 










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