Mortality rising further

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Nederlandse Freelancers
More deaths have been registered in recent weeks than the average reported over this amount of time in the past. For week 14 (ending 5 April), the number of deaths is estimated at around 5,100. This is approximately 2 thousand more deaths than the weekly average during the period week 1 to 10 inclusive of this year. This estimate has been based on the number of death certificates received by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) for week 14. Mortality stood at 4,425 deaths in week 13 (ending 26 March). This is reported by CBS and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on the basis of national provisional counts of the number of deaths per week.

Over the period week 1 to week 10 inclusive (ending 8 March 2020), the average number of deaths per week stood at 3,132. This is slightly less than in 2019, when 3,170 deaths were recorded over the same period.


 
The rising mortality coincides with the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis in the Netherlands. The first confirmed COVID-19 patient in the Netherlands was reported on 27 February 2020. The first death involving COVID-19 was reported on 6 March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020.
In week 13 (ending 15 March), 752 deaths involving COVID-19 were reported to RIVM, while mortality in week 14 stood at 1016 (as at Thursday, 9 April 2020). Since not all COVID-19 patients are tested, the actual numbers in the Netherlands are higher than the numbers stated in the report. A more complete picture emerges by looking at the total weekly number of deaths as based on the data received by CBS, regardless of the cause of death.

Rising mortality mainly among elderly people

The rise in mortality is mainly seen among the elderly part of the population. Based on information received so far by CBS, in week 14 mortality rose further among the elderly and those aged 80 and over in particular. The estimated number of deaths among people aged 65 and over is almost 1,900 higher. This represents an increase of 68 percent relative to the weekly average in the first ten weeks of this year. Mortality among elderly people in week 13 was 44 percent higher.
In the age group 0 to 64 years as well, an increase can be seen as of week 11. This is particularly the case among the population over the age of 50. Under 50, the number of deaths is virtually equal to the average over the first ten weeks in 2020.

Higher mortality among men

Over the past few weeks, mortality has risen more sharply among men than women. An initial estimate for week 14 shows that mortality rose among both sexes, but the gap appears to have narrowed compared to the previous week. According to this estimate, the number of deaths in men was almost 75 percent (1,100) higher while mortality in women was over 50 percent (850) higher than the average across the first ten weeks. In week 13, mortality among men was up by over 50 percent; among women, by almost one-third.
Two-thirds of COVID-19 deaths as reported to RIVM were men. The higher mortality rate among men is also reflected in the total mortality.

Mortality rising less steeply in Noord-Brabant and Limburg

In the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Limburg, mortality appears to rise less sharply in week 14 (ending 5 April) than in the previous week. Based on the most recently available data, total weekly mortality in these two provinces in week 14, is more than double the respective averages over the first ten weeks of 2020. Weekly mortality in Noord-Brabant and Limburg was already (almost) twice as high in week 13 relative to the first ten weeks. These two provinces have recorded a rise in the number of deaths ever since week 11.
Based on an initial estimate, in week 14 the week-on-week increase in mortality was highest in the province of Zuid-Holland. In week 14, nearly 50 percent more deaths were registered there relative to the ten-week average. Two other provinces recording a sharper increase are Noord-Holland and Gelderland.
Apart from Noord-Brabant and Limburg, the provinces of Gelderland and Overijssel also saw almost 50 percent more deaths in week 13 relative to the ten-week average. Furthermore, mortality rose by one-third in Noord-Holland and Utrecht.

Mortality distributions by municipality

In week 13, several municipalities in Noord-Brabant, Limburg and around the city of Zwolle recorded more than double the average number of deaths over the first ten weeks of 2020. The number is even more than four times the average in eight different municipalities, including Boekel, Uden and Peel en Maas.
Mortality figures at the municipal level may fluctuate significantly, especially in the smaller municipalities. A (significant) rise over a particular week may therefore be coincidental and is not necessarily related to the coronavirus crisis.

Sources

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