Forecast: 3.5 million single households in 2030

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From 2030 onwards, the number of households will grow more slowly, to reach an estimated 8.8 million households by the year 2060. This is the most likely scenario as based on the current insights. The number of households may be either higher or lower due to unforeseen changes in living arrangements, such as moving out of the parental home, cohabitation and separation. Uncertainty about demographic developments, for example in terms of immigration, affects the number and composition of households as well. Forecast intervals have been defined to show the degree of uncertainty in the figures. The longer projections go into the future, the greater the uncertainty. In 2060, the number of households is projected to lie somewhere between 8.0 to 9.6 million.

Over half a million more households projected for 2030

Between 2019 and 2030, the number of households is anticipated to rise by 550 thousand, mainly single-person households. In 2030, 3.5 million households will consist of one person. This is 406 thousand more than the current number. The number of couples without children will grow by 102 thousand; other types of households will grow below this level.

More elderly households

The foreseen growth in the number of households will mainly be attributable to the over-65s, as the large post-war generations will reach old age and will also live longer. According to the forecast, the number of households with a reference person aged between 25 and 45 years is expected to increase until 2030 as well. These households consist of the relatively large generations born in the 1990s and shortly after the turn of the century.

In contrast, the number of households with middle-aged people (45 to 59-year-olds) is expected to decrease. These people are from smaller generations who were born after a sharp drop in the birth rate in the early 1970s. Likewise, the forecast projects that there will be fewer households among people in their early twenties in 2030 compared to now. The age at which these people leave the parental home is expected to be slightly higher than in recent years.

Mainly more elderly people living alone

Nearly three-quarters of the additional households up to 2030 will be single-person households. Again, these will largely include elderly people who are more likely to live alone than the middle-aged. This is mainly the result of widowhood but increasingly more often also due to divorce.

Gender ratio among elderly people living alone more balanced

The number of elderly women living alone exceeds the number of men. Women in particular are facing widowhood, as they have a higher average life expectancy than men and are usually younger than their partner. This will continue in the future. On the other hand, the male-female ratio among elderly people living alone is anticipated to become more balanced. In 2030, 65 percent of them will be female as against the current 69 percent. Due to rising life expectancy, widowhood has shifted to a more advanced age, which means that women, too, form part of a couple until later in life.

The majority of single 25 to 64-year-olds are male, mainly as a result of children moving in with the mother following a divorce, thus forming a single-parent household, while the man forms a single-person household. This situation will be similar in 2030, although there will be more single mothers of an advanced age. This is related to the higher age at which women start having children, but also because young adults remain living at home for a longer period.

Majority are living together with others

The sharp increase in the number of single-person households may give the impression that the Netherlands is becoming a country of individuals. The majority of people, however, are living together with a partner, children or parents. Around 81 percent of the population are part of a multi-person household, while 18 percent are single. In 2030, over 19 percent of the population will form a single-person household, according to the forecast.