Forecast: 18 million inhabitants in 2029

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The population forecast describes the most likely future development of the Dutch population. In this forecast, CBS uses a simulation model which uses research assumptions regarding births, deaths, migration and life expectancy as the basis for projections.

The forecast figures are subject to uncertainties. For example, the number of migrants can fluctuate sharply from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the average life span will continue to rise at the same pace and whether Dutch households will keep their preference for having two children. Taking account of these uncertainties, further population growth remains likely at least until the late 2030s. In the ensuing years, the population could either grow or shrink. In all likelihood, the population will reach between 17.3 and 19.9 million by 2060.

Almost one-quarter aged 65 years and over

According to the forecast, there will be 4.2 million over-65s in the Netherlands by the year 2030, 920 thousand more than the current number (start of 2019, provisional figure). This group will constitute 23 percent of the population by that year, versus 19 percent at present. The number of over-80s will rise in particular, from 0.8 million at present to 1.2 million by 2030. The increase in the number of elderly people is not only due to the post-war baby boom but also to higher life expectancy, which is expected to rise even further.

More elderly than youth

By 2030, the number of 0 to 19-year-olds will have remained more or less the same, namely 3.8 million. However, there will be fewer teenagers and more children under the age of seven. Relatively few babies have been born in recent years but an increase is expected for the next few years. In the Netherlands, people under the age of 20 currently outnumber those over the age of 65 by nearly half a million. Due to an ageing population, there will be an inverse ratio in 2030; the over-65s will outnumber young people by almost half a million.

Fewer 20 to 64-year-olds

The number of 20 to 64-year-olds will decrease from 10.1 million currently to 10 million in 2030. Their share in the population will drop from 59 to 56 percent. The composition of this group will change: there will be fewer people in their forties and fifties, and more people in their thirties. The increase in this younger cohort mainly concerns individuals born in the Netherlands, including migrant children and grandchildren of the baby-boom generation. As a result, the number of live births will go up in the future.

Two-thirds of population growth due to migration

By the year 2030, the population is expected to have grown by 745 thousand. Two-thirds of the growth can be attributed to migration (more immigration than emigration), one-third is caused by a higher natural growth (more live births than deaths). The share of inhabitants with a migration background will increase from 24 percent at the start of 2019 to 27 percent in 2030. This group includes people born abroad as well as their Dutch-born children.
Until 2030, an average 230 thousand immigrants per year are expected to arrive in the Netherlands, while 187 thousand emigrants are expected to leave the country. For a large part, these are former immigrants leaving again. This would mean a net migration of 43 thousand per year on average, 5 thousand down on the period 2010-2018.
According to the forecast, the number of live births will rise by an average 187 thousand per year between 2019 and 2030. Due to an ageing population, mortality will go up as well, to 162 thousand on average during this period. The changes in these flows will have a downward effect on the population growth in the coming ten years.

Comparison with previous forecast

Population forecasts are adjusted on an annual basis, in line with the latest developments and new insights. Compared to the forecast in 2017, adjustments have been made mainly in the area of migration. In the future, not only immigration is expected to rise; the number of emigrants will go up as well. According to the latest forecast, by 2060, the Netherlands will have 183 thousand inhabitants more than the number stated in the previous forecast.