Entrepreneurs optimistic about 2019
Entrepreneurs are positive about the expected turnover in 2019. On balance, 30 percent are anticipating turnover growth. Optimism is most prevalent in retail trade, where 43 percent of entrepreneurs expect turnover to increase. The private sector is also positive about employment opportunities. On balance, 17 percent of enterprises expect to expand their workforce next year. The demand for labour is highest in the sector information and communication (31 percent). Investments for 2019 are expected to be higher than in 2018 among 19 percent of businesses; lower investments are anticipated by 11 percent.
Bedrijfstakken/branches | Turnover (balance % of businesses) | Personnel (balance % of businesses) | Investments (balance % of businesses) |
---|---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | 30.4 | 17.2 | 8.5 |
Retail trade (excl. cars) | 43.1 | 15.8 | 12.4 |
Information and communication | 41.8 | 31.4 | 7.6 |
Wholesale and commission trade | 39.6 | 14.3 | 7.8 |
Construction | 33 | 29.2 | 18.9 |
Business services | 32 | 20.7 | 3 |
Car trade and repairs | 29.2 | 17.4 | 6.1 |
Manufacturing | 24.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 |
Transport and storage | 22.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 |
Real estate, renting and business activities | 22.2 | 19.9 | 27.4 |
Accommodation and food services | 16.8 | 8.4 | 4.7 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 15.5 | 12.6 | -1.4 |
Mining and quarrying | -28.5 | -34.7 | 56.7 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Businesses face growing shortage of staff
At the start of Q4 2018, 26 percent of enterprises in the non-financial private sector were facing impediments to their business operations as a result of understaffing. The number of enterprises reporting shortages has increased continuously over the past period. At the start of 2016, less than 5 percent of enterprises reported staff shortages as being an impediment.
Jaar | Kwartaal | (% of enterprises) |
---|---|---|
2012 | Q1 | 3.7 |
2012 | Q2 | 3.9 |
2012 | Q3 | 4.2 |
2012 | Q4 | 4.1 |
2013 | Q1 | 2.7 |
2013 | Q2 | 2.8 |
2013 | Q3 | 2.5 |
2013 | Q4 | 3.1 |
2014 | Q1 | 2.5 |
2014 | Q2 | 2.8 |
2014 | Q3 | 3.3 |
2014 | Q4 | 3.7 |
2015 | Q1 | 2.7 |
2015 | Q2 | 3.1 |
2015 | Q3 | 4.3 |
2015 | Q4 | 5.3 |
2016 | Q1 | 4.6 |
2016 | Q2 | 5.4 |
2016 | Q3 | 6.7 |
2016 | Q4 | 8.3 |
2017 | Q1 | 8.7 |
2017 | 2e kwartaal | 10.4 |
2017 | 3e kwartaal | 15.6 |
2017 | 4e kwartaal | 16.5 |
2018 | 1e kwartaal | 18.4 |
2018 | 2e kwartaal | 20 |
2018 | 3e kwartaal | 25.2 |
2018 | 4e kwartaal | 25.9 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Understaffing most significant in transport and business services
In the sectors transport and business services, 35 percent of entrepreneurs reported staff shortages as a hindering factor in their business activities. These deficits are also above-average in the sectors construction, accommodation and food services, and information and communication. Staffing deficits were cited least frequently in the mining and quarrying sector (12 percent).
Staff shortages by branch of industry | Q4 2018 (% of enterprises) | Q3 2018 (% of enterprises) |
---|---|---|
Non-financial private sector | 25.9 | 25.2 |
Transport and storage | 34.8 | 31.8 |
Business services | 34.7 | 34.5 |
Construction | 31.8 | 38.9 |
Accommodation and food services | 30.3 | 25.9 |
Information and communication | 28.2 | 29.3 |
Car trade and repair | 24.1 | 22.3 |
Manufacturing | 22.1 | 20.6 |
Real estate, renting and business activities | 19.4 | 14.8 |
Wholesale trade | 17.7 | 17 |
Retail trade (excl. cars) | 16 | 11.3 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 15.1 | 14 |
Mining and quarrying | 12.1 | 6.7 |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Business confidence remains high
Since 2014, the mood among Dutch entrepreneurs has been positive without interruption. At the start of Q4 2018, the business confidence indicator stood at 13.4, a slightly lower level than in the previous quarter but still historically high. Since measurements started in 2008, the highest level was reached in Q1 with 18.9.
"Business confidence | industries (SBI 2008)" | Quarter | Business confidence |
---|---|---|---|
2012 | Q1 | -6.3 | |
2012 | Q2 | -6.8 | |
2012 | Q3 | -8.6 | |
2012 | Q4 | -9.2 | |
2013 | Q1 | -10.7 | |
2013 | Q2 | -11.7 | |
2013 | Q3 | -8.7 | |
2013 | Q4 | -2.7 | |
2014 | Q1 | 1.6 | |
2014 | Q2 | 4.7 | |
2014 | Q3 | 2.9 | |
2014 | Q4 | 4.9 | |
2015 | Q1 | 5.6 | |
2015 | Q2 | 5.4 | |
2015 | Q3 | 8.7 | |
2015 | Q4 | 7.4 | |
2016 | Q1 | 9.3 | |
2016 | Q2 | 8.8 | |
2016 | Q3 | 7.9 | |
2016 | Q4 | 9.2 | |
2017 | Q1 | 14.7 | |
2017 | Q2 | 15.5 | |
2017 | Q3 | 15.9 | |
2017 | Q4 | 13.4 | |
2018 | Q1 | 18.1 | |
2018 | Q2 | 14.2 | |
2018 | Q3 | 15 | |
2018 | Q4 | 13.4 | |
Source: CBS, EIB, KVK, MKB-Nederland, VNO-NCW |
Business confidence in the construction sector, came to 33.3 at the start of Q4. This means that the mood of entrepreneurs in this sector is most positive of all entrepreneurs in the non-financial private sector. At 18.4, business confidence in wholesale is above average. However, as a result of less positive signals regarding expected turnover, the confidence indicator is nearly 10 points lower than in Q3. Confidence in the sectors information and communication, business services and real estate activities also declined substantially.
This is a joint publication of:
Sources
- StatLine - Business confidence; sector/branches
- StatLine - Netherlands Business Survey; quarterly, sector/branches