New life expectancy forecast for people aged 65

© ANP
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) projects life expectancy at the age of 65 to be 20.63 years in 2024. Policy makers will use this figure in setting the future state pension (AOW) entitlement age. The life expectancy forecast is part of the Population forecast 2018–2060, to be published by CBS on 18 December of this year. The figures for 2024 and 2030 have been compiled at the request of the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment.

The newly projected 20.63 years of remaining life expectancy in 2024 exceed last year’s forecast, which was set at 20.59 years. This means a difference of half a month. The increase in remaining life expectancy was due to fewer lung cancer deaths among women, despite relatively high mortality at the start of 2018.

Life expectancy at age 65, observations and forecast
 Observations (yrs)Forecast of 2017 (yrs)67% forecast interval (yrs)Forecast of 2018 (yrs)
200017.44
200117.57
200217.60
200317.78
200418.19
200518.34
200618.58
200718.86
200818.99
200919.21
201019.28
201119.51
201219.45
201319.60
201419.91
201519.66
201619.76
201719.8819.88{ "low": 19.59, "high": 20.17 }
201819.99{ "low": 19.58, "high": 20.4 }
201920.09{ "low": 19.59, "high": 20.59 }
202020.19{ "low": 19.61, "high": 20.77 }
202120.28{ "low": 19.63, "high": 20.93 }
202220.38{ "low": 19.66, "high": 21.1 }
202320.48{ "low": 19.71, "high": 21.25 }
202420.59{ "low": 19.76, "high": 21.42 }20.63
202520.70{ "low": 19.82, "high": 21.58 }
202620.81{ "low": 19.88, "high": 21.74 }
202720.92{ "low": 19.94, "high": 21.9 }
202821.04{ "low": 20.02, "high": 22.06 }
202921.15{ "low": 20.08, "high": 22.22 }
203021.26{ "low": 20.15, "high": 22.37 }21.30
203121.38{ "low": 20.23, "high": 22.53 }
203221.50{ "low": 20.3, "high": 22.7 }
203321.62{ "low": 20.38, "high": 22.86 }
203421.74{ "low": 20.46, "high": 23.02 }
203521.85{ "low": 20.54, "high": 23.16 }
203621.97{ "low": 20.62, "high": 23.32 }
203722.09{ "low": 20.7, "high": 23.48 }
203822.21{ "low": 20.78, "high": 23.64 }
203922.33{ "low": 20.87, "high": 23.79 }
204022.44{ "low": 20.94, "high": 23.94 }

AOW legislation based on CBS forecast

The CBS forecast is used as a basis for determining the future state pension (AOW) entitlement age as laid down in the General Old Age Pensions Act (AOW), Article 7a. In November 2017, the Dutch government decided to leave this age unchanged between 2022 and 2023, namely 67 years and 3 months. The newly released forecast on 65-year-olds in 2024 will serve as a basis for setting the state pension entitlement age for 2024.

Life expectancy increasing

Ever since 1950, the remaining life expectancy for 65-year-olds has shown a rising trend. It was still 14.3 years in 1950; this had gone up to 19.9 years by 2017. According to the latest projection, it will be nine months longer by 2024. Life expectancy does not increase evenly over the years. The trend may accelerate or slow down in certain periods. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, the increase in life expectancy is currently slower than between 2000 and 2010.

Life expectancy at age 65
 Total (years)Men (years)Women (years)
'5014.6714.3914.94
'5114.7514.415.07
'5214.9914.6415.31
'5314.814.3915.19
'541514.5215.47
'5514.9414.3715.5
'5614.7714.2515.26
'5715.1414.5415.72
'5815.214.5515.82
'5915.3314.5516.07
'6015.3314.5316.09
'6115.514.6416.32
'6215.2314.2416.17
'6315.1814.0916.22
'6415.6314.4516.75
'6515.4114.2116.55
'6615.4314.216.58
'6715.6714.2616.99
'6815.4313.9816.8
'6915.4113.9516.77
'7015.4313.8616.88
'7115.513.9116.95
'7215.4113.7116.97
'7315.7513.9717.38
'7415.9714.1417.62
'7515.8113.8217.63
'7615.9313.8417.83
'7716.4414.2818.37
'7816.3114.0618.33
'7916.6114.3118.65
'8016.6814.318.79
'8116.7414.3318.86
'8216.814.3718.94
'8316.8914.3619.13
'8416.9114.4119.09
'8516.8814.3619.07
'8616.914.3719.09
'8717.2514.6719.45
'8817.2414.6819.42
'8917.1414.6319.28
'9017.2614.7419.39
'9117.3314.8919.39
'9217.4715.0219.52
'9317.1514.7319.21
'9417.515.1319.47
'9517.4615.0819.47
'9617.4715.1219.46
'9717.6815.3919.61
'9817.7315.4419.66
'9917.7115.5319.54
'0017.8315.6919.64
'0117.9715.919.72
'0217.9915.9719.7
'0318.1816.1819.87
'0418.5916.6320.25
'0518.7516.7720.42
'0618.9917.1220.56
'0719.2717.3720.88
'0819.3917.6420.88
'0919.6117.7921.18
'1019.6917.9521.19
'1119.9218.321.3
'1219.8618.2721.24
'1320.0118.4421.39
'1420.3318.8521.6
'1520.0818.6321.36
'1620.1718.7721.43
'1720.318.9721.49

Forecasts are uncertain

For its projections of future life expectancy, CBS uses a model which was developed within the international scientific community. This model is based on the expectation that the stable decline in mortality around Western Europe will continue in the long term. As this model is not exclusively based on developments in the Netherlands, any temporary changes in mortality will have a less distorting effect on future projections.
However, forecasts remain uncertain. The degree of uncertainty around the forecast is calculated by using so-called forecast intervals. These indicate the degree of accuracy of a forecast.
The life expectancy forecast is part of the annual population forecast of Statistics Netherlands. The population forecast is aimed at projecting the most likely scenario for the future development of the Dutch population. The CBS Population forecast 2018–2060 will be published on 18 December 2018.

Sources

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