Economic situation improves slightly

14/02/2018 15:00

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According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has improved slightly in February compared to the previous month. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-February are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter.

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
		cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2010	J	-0.6
2010	F	-0.57
2010	M	-0.54
2010	A	-0.47
2010	M	-0.42
2010	J	-0.38
2010	J	-0.32
2010	A	-0.26
2010	S	-0.2
2010	O	-0.12
2010	N	-0.04
2010	D	0.05
2011	J	0.11
2011	F	0.19
2011	M	0.25
2011	A	0.28
2011	M	0.33
2011	J	0.34
2011	J	0.33
2011	A	0.3
2011	S	0.24
2011	O	0.15
2011	N	0.07
2011	D	-0.01
2012	J	-0.06
2012	F	-0.1
2012	M	-0.14
2012	A	-0.17
2012	M	-0.23
2012	J	-0.3
2012	J	-0.36
2012	A	-0.46
2012	S	-0.53
2012	O	-0.59
2012	N	-0.71
2012	D	-0.79
2013	J	-0.87
2013	F	-1
2013	M	-1.08
2013	A	-1.14
2013	M	-1.22
2013	J	-1.25
2013	J	-1.26
2013	A	-1.26
2013	S	-1.21
2013	O	-1.14
2013	N	-1.07
2013	D	-0.99
2014	J	-0.93
2014	F	-0.86
2014	M	-0.83
2014	A	-0.81
2014	M	-0.78
2014	J	-0.76
2014	J	-0.74
2014	A	-0.71
2014	S	-0.69
2014	O	-0.68
2014	N	-0.65
2014	D	-0.61
2015	J	-0.57
2015	F	-0.51
2015	M	-0.45
2015	A	-0.39
2015	M	-0.32
2015	J	-0.26
2015	J	-0.21
2015	A	-0.16
2015	S	-0.12
2015	O	-0.11
2015	N	-0.08
2015	D	-0.06
2016	J	-0.05
2016	F	-0.01
2016	M	0.02
2016	A	0.04
2016	M	0.11
2016	J	0.15
2016	J	0.19
2016	A	0.27
2016	S	0.31
2016	O	0.36
2016	N	0.45
2016	D	0.51
2017	J	0.56
2017	F	0.66
2017	M	0.72
2017	A	0.77
2017	M	0.86
2017	J	0.91
2017	J	0.96
2017	A	1.05
2017	S	1.12
2017	O	1.17
2017	N	1.25
2017	D	1.3
18	J	1.33
18	F	1.38

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
		cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2010	J	-0.6
2010	F	-0.57
2010	M	-0.54
2010	A	-0.47
2010	M	-0.42
2010	J	-0.38
2010	J	-0.32
2010	A	-0.26
2010	S	-0.2
2010	O	-0.12
2010	N	-0.04
2010	D	0.05
2011	J	0.11
2011	F	0.19
2011	M	0.25
2011	A	0.28
2011	M	0.33
2011	J	0.34
2011	J	0.33
2011	A	0.3
2011	S	0.24
2011	O	0.15
2011	N	0.07
2011	D	-0.01
2012	J	-0.06
2012	F	-0.1
2012	M	-0.14
2012	A	-0.17
2012	M	-0.23
2012	J	-0.3
2012	J	-0.36
2012	A	-0.46
2012	S	-0.53
2012	O	-0.59
2012	N	-0.71
2012	D	-0.79
2013	J	-0.87
2013	F	-1
2013	M	-1.08
2013	A	-1.14
2013	M	-1.22
2013	J	-1.25
2013	J	-1.26
2013	A	-1.26
2013	S	-1.21
2013	O	-1.14
2013	N	-1.07
2013	D	-0.99
2014	J	-0.93
2014	F	-0.86
2014	M	-0.83
2014	A	-0.81
2014	M	-0.78
2014	J	-0.76
2014	J	-0.74
2014	A	-0.71
2014	S	-0.69
2014	O	-0.68
2014	N	-0.65
2014	D	-0.61
2015	J	-0.57
2015	F	-0.51
2015	M	-0.45
2015	A	-0.39
2015	M	-0.32
2015	J	-0.26
2015	J	-0.21
2015	A	-0.16
2015	S	-0.12
2015	O	-0.11
2015	N	-0.08
2015	D	-0.06
2016	J	-0.05
2016	F	-0.01
2016	M	0.02
2016	A	0.04
2016	M	0.11
2016	J	0.15
2016	J	0.19
2016	A	0.27
2016	S	0.31
2016	O	0.36
2016	N	0.45
2016	D	0.51
2017	J	0.56
2017	F	0.66
2017	M	0.72
2017	A	0.77
2017	M	0.86
2017	J	0.91
2017	J	0.96
2017	A	1.05
2017	S	1.12
2017	O	1.17
2017	N	1.25
2017	D	1.3
18	J	1.33
18	F	1.38

Mood among consumers hardly changes, producer confidence at record high

The mood among Dutch consumers hardly changed in January. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate did not change. Willingness to buy decreased slightly.

Producer confidence increased to a record high in January. Manufacturers were mainly more positive about their future output.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
		Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)	Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2011	J	-4	2.5
2011	F	0	1.5
2011	M	1	5.7
2011	A	-2	4.3
2011	M	-4	2.7
2011	J	-6	1.7
2011	J	-8	-2.2
2011	A	-16	-3.2
2011	S	-27	-0.5
2011	O	-34	-3.1
2011	N	-35	-4.8
2011	D	-36	-1.3
2012	J	-37	-1.8
2012	F	-36	-1.7
2012	M	-36	-2.8
2012	A	-32	-3.4
2012	M	-34	-4.9
2012	J	-37	-4.8
2012	J	-33	-5.4
2012	A	-31	-4.7
2012	S	-28	-6.6
2012	O	-29	-7.6
2012	N	-33	-6.8
2012	D	-38	-5.6
2013	J	-37	-5.6
2013	F	-41	-3.7
2013	M	-41	-5.1
2013	A	-37	-5.6
2013	M	-32	-4.1
2013	J	-33	-3.8
2013	J	-35	-3.1
2013	A	-32	-1.4
2013	S	-31	-2.4
2013	O	-26	-0.3
2013	N	-16	-0.3
2013	D	-11	0.1
2014	J	-6	0.7
2014	F	-2	-0.1
2014	M	1	1.1
2014	A	4	0.3
2014	M	6	0.7
2014	J	6	0.7
2014	J	5	1.2
2014	A	2	0
2014	S	-2	-0.2
2014	O	1	2
2014	N	-2	2.4
2014	D	-4	3.4
2015	J	-2	2.8
2015	F	-1	2
2015	M	7	1.4
2015	A	10	3.3
2015	M	11	4.1
2015	J	14	4.6
2015	J	13	3.7
2015	A	13	3.5
2015	S	11	3.8
2015	O	12	2.4
2015	N	14	4
2015	D	13	3
2016	J	11	3.2
2016	F	6	3.1
2016	M	2	3.9
2016	A	6	4.7
2016	M	7	4.4
2016	J	11	5.4
2016	J	9	5.1
2016	A	9	1.2
2016	S	12	3.4
2016	O	17	4.3
2016	N	21	3.4
2016	D	21	4.7
2017	J	21	6
2017	F	22	7
2017	M	24	7.8
2017	A	26	8.3
2017	M	23	6.1
2017	J	23	7.2
2017	J	25	6.6
2017	A	26	5.4
2017	S	23	8.5
2017	O	23	8.2
2017	N	23	9.1
2017	D	25	8.9
2018	J	24	10.3

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
		Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)	Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2011	J	-4	2.5
2011	F	0	1.5
2011	M	1	5.7
2011	A	-2	4.3
2011	M	-4	2.7
2011	J	-6	1.7
2011	J	-8	-2.2
2011	A	-16	-3.2
2011	S	-27	-0.5
2011	O	-34	-3.1
2011	N	-35	-4.8
2011	D	-36	-1.3
2012	J	-37	-1.8
2012	F	-36	-1.7
2012	M	-36	-2.8
2012	A	-32	-3.4
2012	M	-34	-4.9
2012	J	-37	-4.8
2012	J	-33	-5.4
2012	A	-31	-4.7
2012	S	-28	-6.6
2012	O	-29	-7.6
2012	N	-33	-6.8
2012	D	-38	-5.6
2013	J	-37	-5.6
2013	F	-41	-3.7
2013	M	-41	-5.1
2013	A	-37	-5.6
2013	M	-32	-4.1
2013	J	-33	-3.8
2013	J	-35	-3.1
2013	A	-32	-1.4
2013	S	-31	-2.4
2013	O	-26	-0.3
2013	N	-16	-0.3
2013	D	-11	0.1
2014	J	-6	0.7
2014	F	-2	-0.1
2014	M	1	1.1
2014	A	4	0.3
2014	M	6	0.7
2014	J	6	0.7
2014	J	5	1.2
2014	A	2	0
2014	S	-2	-0.2
2014	O	1	2
2014	N	-2	2.4
2014	D	-4	3.4
2015	J	-2	2.8
2015	F	-1	2
2015	M	7	1.4
2015	A	10	3.3
2015	M	11	4.1
2015	J	14	4.6
2015	J	13	3.7
2015	A	13	3.5
2015	S	11	3.8
2015	O	12	2.4
2015	N	14	4
2015	D	13	3
2016	J	11	3.2
2016	F	6	3.1
2016	M	2	3.9
2016	A	6	4.7
2016	M	7	4.4
2016	J	11	5.4
2016	J	9	5.1
2016	A	9	1.2
2016	S	12	3.4
2016	O	17	4.3
2016	N	21	3.4
2016	D	21	4.7
2017	J	21	6
2017	F	22	7
2017	M	24	7.8
2017	A	26	8.3
2017	M	23	6.1
2017	J	23	7.2
2017	J	25	6.6
2017	A	26	5.4
2017	S	23	8.5
2017	O	23	8.2
2017	N	23	9.1
2017	D	25	8.9
2018	J	24	10.3

Exports, investments and household consumption up

Exports of goods and services grew by 5.5 percent in Q4 2017 compared to Q4 2016. Dutch manufacturers mainly exported more passenger cars, machinery and appliances.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 6.4 percent up in Q4 2017 relative to Q4 2016. Investments in residential property and machinery in particular were higher than one year previously.

Dutch household consumption was 0.9 percent up in Q4 year-on-year. Growth was much lower than in the previous quarters. Consumers mainly spent more on services, such as visits to restaurants or bars. Services account for over half of total domestic consumer spending.

Manufacturing output over 5 percent up in December

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 5.2 percent up in December 2017 compared to the same month one year previously. The growth rate was slightly lower than in November. For over two years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year. The strongest growth in December 2017 was seen in the machinery industry.

Slightly more bankruptcies in January

There were 5 more bankruptcies in January 2018 than in December 2017. In December, the number of bankruptcies rose by 17. Over the past 10 months, the number of bankruptcies has been more or less stable.

Tighter labour market

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed saw quarter-on-quarter growth of 57 thousand in Q4 2017. The number of jobs has been growing for almost four years now. In this period, the number of jobs grew by over half a million.

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 1.0 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017. This growth is lower than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours also increased again.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
		Index (2009=100)
2010	I	100.4
2010	II	101
2010	III	101.3
2010	IV	102.6
2011	I	103.3
2011	II	103.2
2011	III	103.2
2011	IV	102.4
2012	I	102.3
2012	II	102.3
2012	III	101.9
2012	IV	101.2
2013	I	101.5
2013	II	101.3
2013	III	101.9
2013	IV	102.5
2014	I	102.3
2014	II	102.9
2014	III	103.3
2014	IV	104.5
2015	I	105.3
2015	II	105.3
2015	III	105.7
2015	IV	106.1
2016	I	106.9
2016	II	107.2
2016	III	108.3
2016	IV	109
2017	I	109.6
2017	II	111.3
2017	III	111.8
2017	IV	112.7

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
		Index (2009=100)
2010	I	100.4
2010	II	101
2010	III	101.3
2010	IV	102.6
2011	I	103.3
2011	II	103.2
2011	III	103.2
2011	IV	102.4
2012	I	102.3
2012	II	102.3
2012	III	101.9
2012	IV	101.2
2013	I	101.5
2013	II	101.3
2013	III	101.9
2013	IV	102.5
2014	I	102.3
2014	II	102.9
2014	III	103.3
2014	IV	104.5
2015	I	105.3
2015	II	105.3
2015	III	105.7
2015	IV	106.1
2016	I	106.9
2016	II	107.2
2016	III	108.3
2016	IV	109
2017	I	109.6
2017	II	111.3
2017	III	111.8
2017	IV	112.7

GDP growth 0.8 percent in Q4 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8 percent in Q4 2017 relative to Q3 2017 as shown in the first estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is mainly due to exports. The GDP growth rate was 2.9 percent in Q4 2017 compared to Q4 2016.

On Monday 26 March 2018, CBS will publish the second estimate of GDP and employment in Q4 2017 and for the year 2017.

Sources

Dossier - Business Cycle