Business confidence remains high
At the start of Q3, the business confidence indicator stood at 7.9. Although slightly below the level of Q2, it is still well above the average that has been observed since business confidence was first surveyed in 2008. Expectations in the private sector have been consistently positive since early 2014. The highest level, a 10, was reached in 2011, then followed by a downturn until an all-time low was reached in 2013. Since then, confidence has increased up to the present level. As of the second half of last year, business confidence has been stable.
Optimism in wholesale trade and construction sector
Wholesale entrepreneurs have been optimistic for nearly three years in a row. Their business confidence level stood at 17.9 at the start of Q3. The mood is positive due to positive expectations regarding turnover and the economic climate. The wholesale trade is currently the sector where confidence is highest.
Business confidence improved in the construction sector. The indicator rose from 12.2 in Q2 to 16.6 in Q3. Business owners are more positive about their order books than before. There is a favourable outlook on employment in the sector as well. An increasing number of companies are hitting barriers to their production as a result of a lack of qualified personnel. On balance, one out of four companies expect to hire more staff in Q3.
In the mining and quarrying sector, the mood is predominantly negative. Business confidence was at its lowest since 2009 with a value of -20.1. The negative outlook concerns both future output as well as order books and the economic climate.
| Q2 2016 | Q3 2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| Total private sector | 8.8 | 7.9 |
| Wholesale trade | 19.2 | 17.5 |
| Construction | 12.2 | 16.6 |
| Information and communication | 15.3 | 15.5 |
| Real estate rental and trade | 3.3 | 10 |
| Hotels and restaurants | 13.4 | 9.7 |
| Business services | 12.5 | 8.4 |
| Retail trade | 3.2 | 7.5 |
| Manufacturing | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Car trade and repair | -0.9 | 4 |
| Transport and storage | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Mineral extraction | -17.9 | -20.1 |
Investments expected to increase
On balance, 10 percent of companies in the private sector expect to invest more this year. The transport and storage sector expects the highest increase: on balance, 29 percent of businesses in this sector is planning higher investments. Expectations are similar in the construction industry, wholesale trade and manufacturing industry. The number of businesses with positive expectations has not been higher on balance since the survey was started up in 2008.
This is a joint publication by:
