Statistics Netherlands publishes uncertainty intervals in relation to forecast figures. One thousand possible scenarios are calculated, each representing a different combination of expectations regarding immigration and emigration, number of children and life expectancy. The uncertainty intervals are estimated on the basis of the results of these simulations. The increase in the number of over-65s for the period until the year 2025 has a margin of 100 thousand to 200 thousand in both directions, if life expectancy or immigration and emigration deviate from the projected trend.
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