Economic situation deteriorating

The picture of the economic situation at the end of November was far worse than at the end of October. The heart of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer is located on the edge of the downswing stage and the recession stage. The most remarkable fact is that all indicators in the Tracer have moved downwards at the end of November compared to the end of October. Nine of the fifteen indicators in the Tracer are still performing above their long-term average.

Dutch economic growth is slowing down. In the third quarter, economic growth was 1.8 percent relative to one year previously. Growth was almost reduced by half compared to the first six months of 2008. Dutch economy showed zero growth in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. For the second time in a row, there was no quarter-on-quarter growth.

Consumer confidence slightly decreased in November. The indicator dropped from -27 to -29. Confidence among manufacturers plummeted from -6.1 in October to -9.1 in November. The mood among business service providers deteriorated marginally.

In October, capital market interest averaged 4.2 percent, i.e. 0.1 percentage points down on September. The Dutch inflation rate dropped from 3.1 percent in September to 2.8 percent in October. Selling prices in manufacturing industry were well over 4 percent up on October 2007.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment hardly changed in the period August-October compared with the period July-September. The number of jobs of employees was 1.4 percent higher than in the third quarter of 2007. Job growth in the third quarter of 2008 was less vigorous than in the first six months. The number of job vacancies remained high, the number of hours worked in temp jobs decreased marginally.

Gross domestic product (GDP)