Economy past its peak

The economic situation at the end of October was slightly less promising than at the end of September. The heart of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer is located in the downswing stage. However, eleven of the fifteen indicators in the Tracer are still performing better than their long-term average.

Dutch economic growth is slowing down. In the second quarter, economic growth was 3.0 percent relative to one year previously. Growth in the second quarter was 0.1 percent compared to the first quarter.

Manufacturing production in August was just over 1 percent down on last year. The volume of exports of goods was nearly 4 percent up. Household spending on goods and services was 1.9 percent up.

Consumers were in a more gloomy mood in October. The indicator dropped from -22 to -27. Confidence among manufacturers plummeted from -0.5 in September to -6.1 in October, the largest drop ever observed. Among business service providers the mood has now also become much more gloomy. They are very negative about the economic climate.

In September, the capital market interest rate remained unchanged. Inflation was slightly lower than in August, at 3.1 percent. Selling prices in the manufacturing industry were just over 9 percent up on twelve months previously.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment decreased by 4 thousand in the period July-September compared with the period June-August. The number of job vacancies fell marginally in the second quarter of 2008, but remained high. The number of hours worked in temp jobs increased slightly. The number of jobs of employees was 2.0 percent higher than in the second quarter of 2007. Job growth in the first six months of this year was somewhat down on 2007.

Gross domestic product (GDP)